Regional Overview and Prediction:

Based on RPI, this Baton Rouge regional is the 2nd toughest of the 16 host sites with an average RPI of 34 with the Gainesville regional being the toughest at a 32 RPI average. Houston is the highest 2 seed in the tournament and Southeastern is the 2nd highest 4 seed based on the RPI. This Baton Rouge Regional features every aspect of quality baseball with power hitting, outstanding pitching, tons of speed, and some solid defense. Two starting pitchers in the top 5 in the country in WHIP, 3 closers on the Stopper of the Year Watch List, and a couple of the nation’s top base stealers are all featured in this 4-team double elimination tournament.

All of the teams in this regional have piled up a number of wins and some impressive stats. However, Southeastern and Bryant have done so against less than stiff competition. Southeastern is just 1-8 against the Top 100 and has a road record of 14-13. Their only win against a regional team was a conference tourney win over Sam Houston State, who swept the Lions in the regular season. Bryant has built up a high RPI of 43 due to playing and winning most of their games on the road this season. The Bulldogs are just 1-5 against teams in the top 100 RPI and 30 of the team’s 42 wins have come against teams below RPI 150. The thing that Bryant has in its favor is experience after winning a game in the Manhattan Regional last year with this same core of players. I believe the level of competition will be too much for the Bulldogs to handle, but their bats get them a convincing win over Southeastern on Saturday afternoon. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Bryant made a run at Houston on Sunday morning in the elimination game. If that should happen, LSU cruises to the supers on their depleted staff.

The Houston Cougars have a 14-4 record on the road this season and the #1 non-conference RPI. Houston has had mixed results against some top teams this year by sweeping Rice and sweeping Charleston, but getting swept by Louisville. Similar to LSU, Houston has won a bunch of close, low scoring games. They are 28-2 when holding opponents to 3 runs or less and 33-1 when scoring at least 4 runs themselves. On the flip side, when the Cougars are held to 3 runs or less, they are 11-14 on the year. LSU’s pitching staff is well rested coming out of a conference tournament with no reliever throwing more than 23 pitches and the starters all have extra days of rest. There will be plenty of upsets around the country, but I just don’t see any playing out in this regional. LSU’s pitching is too strong and the bats are too hot. By the end of the weekend, I like the Tigers to be within 2 wins of Omaha.

PREDICTIONS:
Game 1: LSU 7, Southeastern 1
Game 2: Houston 6, Bryant 4
Game 3: Bryant 8, Southeastern 3 – SELU eliminated
Game 4: LSU 4, Houston 0
Game 5: Houston 7, Bryant 5 – Bryant eliminated
Game 6: LSU 7, Houston 3 – Houston eliminated; LSU regional champions

Note: Houston’s starting rotation has not been announced as of this post. I project that they will start Lemoine in game 1 and Garza in game 2. If that is not the case, some of the above predictions may change.