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El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season

Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41814 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.

1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana


To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.

What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!

Posted by BigHoss
Offshore
Member since Apr 2010
3353 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:08 am to
you can not predict future events based on past results
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35551 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to
El Niño is Spanish for...........


















The Niño
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119176 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:10 am to
How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?
Posted by TheGreat318
West of Bossier
Member since Feb 2012
1256 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:11 am to
Weather threads that aren't started by GeauxMedic make me feel uncomfortable.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought. Either way, as we have seen before in weak seasons all it takes is one (see 1992, 1957)

Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am
Posted by ragincajunkarl
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2012
568 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 10:50 am to
I am a meteorology enthusiast, and while I do understand that El Nino's effects hinder hurricane development, preparation is still very important. The last El Nino season was in 2009, and it was a very quiet year with the 9th storm, Ida, hitting Louisiana in November as a very weak tropical storm. The reduction of storms is largely due to the unfavorable upper-level winds and increased wind shear across many favorable developmental areas. However, once a storm begins to develop, it is less susceptible to being damaged by the shear--mostly hinders storm formation. It does take only one storm to change lives, however.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 10:56 am
Posted by tigersownall
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2011
15376 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:54 pm to
We're done for. Not even kidding.
Posted by colorchangintiger
Dan Carlin
Member since Nov 2005
30979 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)



This thread is a sham for not mentioning Rita
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19832 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:21 pm to
Some interesting Louisiana hurricane history here.

No Cat 5s:



Some interesting time blocks - 2000 - 2009 had 10 storms and the stretch from 1930 - 1960 was crazy active:

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19832 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.


Andrew is an interesting case and I have seen it included on list of "El Nino" year storms but that El Nino officially ended in May of that year. However, that season looks a lot like a Nino season based on the numbers 7/4/1. Andrew, the first real storm, didn't form until mid-August and the atmosphere was pretty Nino like during the early going. It seems like it takes a while for the Atlantic to flip after the Pacific has transitioned from Nino or Nina.

There might be a window of opportunity for a system to form in the western Caribbean near the end of May or early June but it probably wouldn't make it very far north

Posted by lsuwontonwrap
Member since Aug 2012
34147 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 10:14 pm to
weather board


last season was pretty slow...
Posted by Boomtown
Member since Jan 2014
1986 posts
Posted on 5/26/14 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.


El Niño = colder Atlantic Ocean temperatures (global warming ) and warmer Pacific temperatures, specifically around Central America. Therefore it isn't out of the question that a storm can form on the pacific side of the Yucatan and cross into the gulf and restrengthen
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
116205 posts
Posted on 5/26/14 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)


You forgot Rita. She was a bad bitch and one that is too often overlooked.
Posted by tigerbutt
Deep South
Member since Jun 2006
24633 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.


Yep, everyone is predicting less storms because the fn idiots predict more than those that actually occur. They figure they better bring the average number back down. These predictions are so fn stupid.
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