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El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.
1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.
1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:08 am to TDsngumbo
you can not predict future events based on past results
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to TDsngumbo
El Niño is Spanish for...........
The Niño
The Niño
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:10 am to TDsngumbo
How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:11 am to TDsngumbo
Weather threads that aren't started by GeauxMedic make me feel uncomfortable.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to TDsngumbo
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought. Either way, as we have seen before in weak seasons all it takes is one (see 1992, 1957)
Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 10:50 am to TDsngumbo
I am a meteorology enthusiast, and while I do understand that El Nino's effects hinder hurricane development, preparation is still very important. The last El Nino season was in 2009, and it was a very quiet year with the 9th storm, Ida, hitting Louisiana in November as a very weak tropical storm. The reduction of storms is largely due to the unfavorable upper-level winds and increased wind shear across many favorable developmental areas. However, once a storm begins to develop, it is less susceptible to being damaged by the shear--mostly hinders storm formation. It does take only one storm to change lives, however.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 10:56 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:54 pm to TDsngumbo
We're done for. Not even kidding.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:23 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
This thread is a sham for not mentioning Rita
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:33 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
Andrew is an interesting case and I have seen it included on list of "El Nino" year storms but that El Nino officially ended in May of that year. However, that season looks a lot like a Nino season based on the numbers 7/4/1. Andrew, the first real storm, didn't form until mid-August and the atmosphere was pretty Nino like during the early going. It seems like it takes a while for the Atlantic to flip after the Pacific has transitioned from Nino or Nina.
There might be a window of opportunity for a system to form in the western Caribbean near the end of May or early June but it probably wouldn't make it very far north
Posted on 5/19/14 at 10:14 pm to TDsngumbo
weather board
last season was pretty slow...
last season was pretty slow...
Posted on 5/26/14 at 5:40 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
El Niño = colder Atlantic Ocean temperatures (global warming ) and warmer Pacific temperatures, specifically around Central America. Therefore it isn't out of the question that a storm can form on the pacific side of the Yucatan and cross into the gulf and restrengthen
Posted on 5/26/14 at 8:48 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
You forgot Rita. She was a bad bitch and one that is too often overlooked.
Posted on 5/27/14 at 10:51 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
Yep, everyone is predicting less storms because the fn idiots predict more than those that actually occur. They figure they better bring the average number back down. These predictions are so fn stupid.
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