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re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG
Posted on 7/19/13 at 9:53 am to corndeaux
Posted on 7/19/13 at 9:53 am to corndeaux
quote:
The one that has Anderson at 29 mpg? lol No way Anderson plays less than 29 minutes next season. Positions may not matter, but Morrow isn't eating into any frontcourt player's minutes.
Morrow wouldn't eat into his minutes directly. But both possess the same skill when it comes down to it. Lets not forget Anderson and Davis play the same position and Davis is certainly in for a bump in minutes. Couple that with added talent and lineup flexibility and Anderson is probably looking at 25-26mpg.
quote:
Faulty logic. How many DNP-CDs did those guys get? How did injuries and a lost season affect the minutes that they saw?
No shite. I was just trying to illustrate how little 5 mpg is. Almost 1 minute per quarter
quote:
Saying Morrow will average 15mpg for the season and saying he will get 15mpg on a nightly basis are two different things. I assumed, and could very well be wrong, that the OP was talking about the latter.
Wut
I don't even...
3
Posted on 7/19/13 at 10:08 am to GynoSandberg
I think what he's saying is that these predictions are assuming health. Mason and Harris wouldn't have gotten close to the mpg that they received if everyone was healthy. I'm not even going to attempt to predict what the mpg for each player would be if we take into account injuries.
Posted on 7/19/13 at 10:13 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Wut I don't even...
quote:
Saying Morrow will average 15mpg for the season and saying he will get 15mpg on a nightly basis are two different things. I assumed, and could very well be wrong, that the OP was talking about the latter.
quote:
Wut
I don't even...
DNP's don't factor in as a zero for the MPG calculation. It's just like that game never existed for that player. If Ego misses 50 games due to injury, but averages 30 MPG in the 32 games he plays, his MPG is 30. The games he doesn't play doesn't not bring down his MPG average. Additionally, now there are an additional 1500 minutes for players to get in those 50 games, increasing their average MPG for the season. So when all is said and done, the sum of all of the MPG averages for all players on the roster will be much higher than the 240 minutes available per game (not counting OT).
Posted on 7/19/13 at 10:28 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Morrow wouldn't eat into his minutes directly. But both possess the same skill when it comes down to it. Lets not forget Anderson and Davis play the same position and Davis is certainly in for a bump in minutes. Couple that with added talent and lineup flexibility and Anderson is probably looking at 25-26mpg.
Reasonable, but Morrow is behind at least 2 and perhaps 3 other players at his positions (Gordon/Evans/Rivers? and Evans/Aminu/Miller?). Judging by the way they dealt with the C position this offseason- even if Oden signs on- I believe they will feel more comfortable rolling out Anderson/Davis than last year. Certainly against Howard/Hibbert that probably won't happen, but we are talking about only a handful of teams that would cause serious problems.
Also, if they really believe that Morrow can replicate Anderson's production enough to where Anderson is playing 25mpg, why wouldn't they just get Asik from Houston and avoid the PF overlap?
quote:
No shite. I was just trying to illustrate how little 5 mpg is. Almost 1 minute per quarter
Exactly. Over the course of the season, the MPG number is going to go up. No coach plays a guy for 4 minutes a night, every night.
That's why I am assuming the OP is asking "on an given night, with a healthy roster, how do you think the minutes break down?" Looking at it that way, you can come up with numbers that you never see when surveying an entire season.
It wouldn't shock me if Morrow gets somewhere around 15mpg- hell I agreed with you that I could see him being a key bench guy. The relevant question, as I see it in this thread, is will Morrow get his minutes every night, assuming a healthy roster.
Most people are saying no because they are higher on Rivers and Miller than Morrow, for several reasons that don't necessarily have anything to do with who is a better fit. I think you're probably right that he will beat out Miller for time. I don't think he takes away minutes from Rivers
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