Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5293 posts
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re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

Morrow wouldn't eat into his minutes directly. But both possess the same skill when it comes down to it. Lets not forget Anderson and Davis play the same position and Davis is certainly in for a bump in minutes. Couple that with added talent and lineup flexibility and Anderson is probably looking at 25-26mpg.


Reasonable, but Morrow is behind at least 2 and perhaps 3 other players at his positions (Gordon/Evans/Rivers? and Evans/Aminu/Miller?). Judging by the way they dealt with the C position this offseason- even if Oden signs on- I believe they will feel more comfortable rolling out Anderson/Davis than last year. Certainly against Howard/Hibbert that probably won't happen, but we are talking about only a handful of teams that would cause serious problems.

Also, if they really believe that Morrow can replicate Anderson's production enough to where Anderson is playing 25mpg, why wouldn't they just get Asik from Houston and avoid the PF overlap?

quote:

No shite. I was just trying to illustrate how little 5 mpg is. Almost 1 minute per quarter


Exactly. Over the course of the season, the MPG number is going to go up. No coach plays a guy for 4 minutes a night, every night.

That's why I am assuming the OP is asking "on an given night, with a healthy roster, how do you think the minutes break down?" Looking at it that way, you can come up with numbers that you never see when surveying an entire season.

It wouldn't shock me if Morrow gets somewhere around 15mpg- hell I agreed with you that I could see him being a key bench guy. The relevant question, as I see it in this thread, is will Morrow get his minutes every night, assuming a healthy roster.

Most people are saying no because they are higher on Rivers and Miller than Morrow, for several reasons that don't necessarily have anything to do with who is a better fit. I think you're probably right that he will beat out Miller for time. I don't think he takes away minutes from Rivers






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GynoSandberg
LA-Lafayette Fan
Member since Jan 2006
33908 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


I hear ya.

Miller may not even make the team though






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Noplacelikehome
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2010
1773 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


PG
Jrue 32
Evans 0
Roberts 8
Rivers 8
48

SG
Gordon 30
Rivers 0
Morrow 8
Evans 10
48

SF
Aminu 20
Evans 20
Ryno 0
Morrow 0
Miller 8
48

PF
Davis 18
Ryno 30
48

C
Smith 20
Davis 13
Stiemsma 15
Withey 0
48

Jrue 32
Gordon 30
Davis 31
Evans 30
Ryno 30
Smith 20
Aminu 20
Stiemsma 15
Rivers 8
Morrow 8
Roberts 8
Miller 8
Withey 0
240






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jdbillio
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2013
132 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


I think people are underestimating Morrow a bit. IMO the best bench lineup is: Tyreke/Rivers/Morrow/Anderson/Smith.

Offensively: Morrow and Anderson will create huge lanes. Tyreke and Rivers get maximum room for the drive and kick. Smith is perfect to use in pick and role situations for either a kick out or to crash the boards for a rebound.

Defensively: Ya Morrow can't play D. But Tyreke is more than capable of guarding the sub 1,2,3 and Rivers can guard any sub 1 or 2. Meaning, Morrow can guard whatever scrub left out of those positions that is offensively inept.






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Noplacelikehome
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2010
1773 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

I think people are underestimating Morrow a bit. IMO the best bench lineup is: Tyreke/Rivers/Morrow/Anderson/Smith.

Offensively: Morrow and Anderson will create huge lanes. Tyreke and Rivers get maximum room for the drive and kick. Smith is perfect to use in pick and role situations for either a kick out or to crash the boards for a rebound.

Defensively: Ya Morrow can't play D. But Tyreke is more than capable of guarding the sub 1,2,3 and Rivers can guard any sub 1 or 2. Meaning, Morrow can guard whatever scrub left out of those positions that is offensively inept.


I think you are overvaluing Morrow. There is a reason the Pelicans are only going to pay him $1.03 Million. He has played 41 games the past 2 seasons and averaged about 9 min per game for a reason.

EDIT: I am excited to see him shoot though and I hope he can get back to '09-'12 form. I would love to see him throw up 200-250 3s.



This post was edited on 7/19 at 1:37 pm


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LosLobos111
USA Fan
EG for SF Plz
Member since Feb 2011
13375 posts
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re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


Morrow will play 12-16 minutes a night imo

PG:
Jrue: 33`
AR: 8
Roberts: 7

SG:
EG: 29
AR; 6
Morrow; 3
Tyreke: 10

SF:
Chief; 16
Morrow: 13
tyreke: 19

PF:
AD: 22
Ryno: 26

C:
AD: 11
Smith: 18
Steimsma: 9
Withey: 9






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Noplacelikehome
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2010
1773 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

PG:
Jrue: 33`
AR: 8
Roberts: 7

SG:
EG: 29
AR; 6
Morrow; 3
Tyreke: 10

SF:
Chief; 16
Morrow: 13
tyreke: 19

PF:
AD: 22
Ryno: 26

C:
AD: 11
Smith: 18
Steimsma: 9
Withey: 9



I don't see any way EG, Evans, and Anderson play less than 30 min per game. $34 Million is far too much to be paying those 3 to play less than 30 min a game.



This post was edited on 7/19 at 1:44 pm


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LosLobos111
USA Fan
EG for SF Plz
Member since Feb 2011
13375 posts
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re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

don't see any way EG, Evans, and Anderson play less than 30 min per game. $34 Million is far too much to be paying those 3 to play less than 30 min a game.


EG/Tyreke would be right at 30
26-28 for ryno seems right

Ryno played for 2-3 months last year in this frame and averaged 15.4 PPG...

Tyreke played 32 last year so 29-30 shouldn't be an issue



This post was edited on 7/19 at 1:56 pm


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GynoSandberg
LA-Lafayette Fan
Member since Jan 2006
33908 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

I think you are overvaluing Morrow. There is a reason the Pelicans are only going to pay him $1.03 Million. He has played 41 games the past 2 seasons and averaged about 9 min per game for a reason.


Man, if you're going to pretend to know what you're talking about, at least look at the stats closer.

He played 26 mpg in 2011-2012 in 62 games

9mpg last season in a loaded backcourts with 3 point guys. Last year was basically a wash for him







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LosLobos111
USA Fan
EG for SF Plz
Member since Feb 2011
13375 posts
 Online 

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


Exactly

He averaged right around 26 MPG from 08-11

His PER 36 for his career is 15.3 PPG

One of the better shooters in the league






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Noplacelikehome
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2010
1773 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

Man, if you're going to pretend to know what you're talking about, at least look at the stats closer.


And the Pelican's back court isn't loaded? A healthy Holiday, Evans, and Gordon back court >>>> than Atlanta's (where he spent most of last season) Devin Harris, Jeff Teague, Lou Williams, and John Jenkins and Dallas' Collison and Mayo.

Read the post, man. I was stating facts. You can't just completely count out what he did last year. Previous to last year he played 26-30 min per game for NJ and GS who had very little to challenge him for minutes. It looks like when he got put on a teams with depth at SG and got buried on the Depth Chart.

He is definitely an intriguing player though, and I hope he proves that last year was a fluke.

You have to wonder why a guy like Morrow only pulled a 2 year $2.2 million contract and Marco Belinelli pulled a 2 year $5.6 million contract.






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MrBlue105
Navy Fan
chillin with the BWC - anaconda
Member since Apr 2013
6602 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


Somebody start a game thread for pels/wiz





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jdbillio
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2013
132 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

And the Pelican's back court isn't loaded?
All those points are valid.The Pelican's back court is loaded; it's silly to argue otherwise. However, none of them (with maybe the exception of Jrue) are true shooters. As well, they're all above average defenders who can guard multiple positions. As a result, I think Morrow gets to focus just on being a true shooter, and the Pelicans can limit his defensive liability by putting him on the worst offensive players.

After watching summer league, and seeing the "win now" mentality the Pelicans are taking, I don't think Miller will get a ton of Minutes. I think miller makes the team, then gets sent back to the D-league after camp.

IMO: Morrow winds up with a surprising 15-18 minutes









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Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Feb 2013
3923 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


So do you think that the Pelicans are going to play Rivers only 5-10 minutes a game?





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jdbillio
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2013
132 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


Honestly, yes. Just from looking at his skill set and summer league; we have three guards that can drive to the basket at a more efficient rate than AR can. We have 0 guards that can shoot as well as Morrow.

I am sure AR will still get minutes though. The 5-10 minute predictor is based off a healthy roster for the entire season. For example, if EG gets hurt, AR slides in as the starter, not Morrow or Tyreke. IMO






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Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Feb 2013
3923 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


Really? I think if Gordon goes down Tyreke is a lock for the starting SG.





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jdbillio
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2013
132 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


It's arguable. I think if Aminu or Jrue goes down, then Tyreke get's their spot. However, I think AR gives you enough skill at the 2 offensively and defensively to leave Tyreke on the bench.





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GynoSandberg
LA-Lafayette Fan
Member since Jan 2006
33908 posts

re: Taking another shot at predicting the roster's MPG


quote:

And the Pelican's back court isn't loaded? A healthy Holiday, Evans, and Gordon back court >>>> than Atlanta's (where he spent most of last season) Devin Harris, Jeff Teague, Lou Williams, and John Jenkins and Dallas' Collison and Mayo.


Morrow is a 3pt specialist. Atlanta already had Korver, Lou Williams, and Deshawn Stevenson attempting 4, 5, 6 threes a game. Same with Mayo, Vince, and Dirk in Dallas.

With our team, Morrow is the only pure 3pt guy in the backcourt. Sure the other guys are adequate, but Morrow is going to be the one to stretch the floor at points in the game.

quote:

Read the post, man. I was stating facts


I did. You said he played 41 games the past 2 seasons at 9 mpg

quote:

You have to wonder why a guy like Morrow only pulled a 2 year $2.2 million contract and Marco Belinelli pulled a 2 year $5.6 million contract.


Morrow was a specialist coming off a season where he didnt get to play. He's an undrafted guy who can't play any D. Unless he was coming off a decent year, he isn't getting paid. Bellinelli got ample PT and had decent games in crucial spots.

Again, money isn't going to dictate who plays. Aminu got $3m, doesn't mean he won't play.






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