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Started By
Message
re: Tracking a bet-against the Astros & Marlins every game the rest of the way..
Posted on 5/18/13 at 10:08 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
Posted on 5/18/13 at 10:08 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
Actually it's a sample of 1/4th of the season for both teams, or 80+ games.
Like I said earlier, Detroit was 43-119 in 2003 and a bet against them all season won a bettor $4200 if their goal was to win $100 per game. The average line was -180 to play against Detroit all year.
Like I said earlier, Detroit was 43-119 in 2003 and a bet against them all season won a bettor $4200 if their goal was to win $100 per game. The average line was -180 to play against Detroit all year.
1
Posted on 5/18/13 at 10:27 am to LSUAlum2001
I wonder if the risk would lower in just betting against one team rather than both. While the payout is obviously higher betting on both, your exposure and risk for loss is proportionately higher as well. Why not just pick the worst team of the two and bet higher per game?
Posted on 5/18/13 at 10:48 am to Jwodie
quote:
Why not just pick the worst team of the two and bet higher per game
It's a tough call right now.
Houston has a somewhat decent offense, but their pitching staff is weak.
Miami has no offense, but has a somewhat decent pitching staff.
My thoughts are this: both are bad and will finish the year with 40-50 wins. My hope is that one will protect me from the other. A simultaneous win streak from both will kill my bankroll, and I'm betting against it.
Currently, the combine consecutive wins (at any point this season) between both is 4 and it has happened 2x this year. As long as it doesn't eclipse 5 over the next 3-4 weeks, and they maintain a win% similar (30%) over those 3-4 weeks, I should be fine.
:fingerscrossed:
This post was edited on 5/18/13 at 11:24 am
Posted on 5/19/13 at 8:16 pm to LSUAlum2001
Spreadsheets are updated..
Houston over the last 7 days totaled $-190.
Miami over the last 7 days totaled $345.
$155 profit this week.
Houston over the last 7 days totaled $-190.
Miami over the last 7 days totaled $345.
$155 profit this week.
Posted on 5/19/13 at 8:21 pm to LSUAlum2001
I thought about your bet when I saw this posted.
Posted on 5/19/13 at 8:27 pm to tigerpimpbot
Yeah. I laughed on that one.
I have the MLB app and was listening to it happen.
I have the MLB app and was listening to it happen.
Posted on 5/19/13 at 9:21 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
LSUAlum2001
Holy shite, you're Jimmy Paredes. It all seems so clear now. You're betting on the Astros to lose games. Why else would you so blatantly run into your 2nd baseman to lose the ball game?
Posted on 5/20/13 at 2:07 am to Lsuhoohoo
Since I started this, the Astros avg line (for opponent) is -249.33. The average for the Marlins' opponent is -176.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 6:46 am to bobbyray21
What do you do if the Disastros play the Marlins?
Posted on 5/20/13 at 6:54 am to bobbyray21
-250 is stout. But hell, the Astros suck.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 7:26 am to bamafan425
quote:
Disastros
...and Lastros. You forgot that hilarious and original name too.
I've never seen that posted here.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 8:37 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
What do you do if the Disastros play the Marlins?
I think he's safe this year with the Astros in the AL
Posted on 5/20/13 at 8:53 am to The Easter Bunny
I looked at the spreadsheet. The lines for Astros games is getting pretty high. The last two series last week had an average line of -260.
OP needs to hope for a few more good weeks to protect the bankroll from a win streak by the stros.
They will win 3 in a row and right now, with current lines that would be enough to wipe out about 80% of the winnings on the year from stros games. 4 would be about all of it.
The lines on the Fish have not been so scary and are not moving up much so far.
OP needs to hope for a few more good weeks to protect the bankroll from a win streak by the stros.
They will win 3 in a row and right now, with current lines that would be enough to wipe out about 80% of the winnings on the year from stros games. 4 would be about all of it.
The lines on the Fish have not been so scary and are not moving up much so far.
This post was edited on 5/20/13 at 8:54 am
Posted on 5/20/13 at 8:56 am to LSUAlum2001
In my fantasy baseball league, if I need pitching help I've just started picking up whomever is starting against the Marlins or Astros, if they're available. It works out pretty well, probably 7/8 times with at least 4 shutouts and probably 5 wins. Once the pitcher got shelled but that's a great percentage if it holds. Most recent was Locke yesterday.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 9:03 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
Houston on the road to date is at -210 average, at home it is -151.
They have played Seattle, LAA, Oakland, Boston, NYY, Detroit and Pitt on the road.
Miami's home vs road lines have been -138 and -175 on average.
They have played Seattle, LAA, Oakland, Boston, NYY, Detroit and Pitt on the road.
Miami's home vs road lines have been -138 and -175 on average.
This post was edited on 5/20/13 at 9:05 am
Posted on 5/20/13 at 9:07 am to LSUAlum2001
..even Houston's home series to date have been tough: Texas, Oakland, Cleveland, Seattle, Detroit, LAA and Texas.
Once again, 5 of those 7 series have been against teams either near the top or leading their division.
Once again, 5 of those 7 series have been against teams either near the top or leading their division.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 9:15 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Once again, 5 of those 7 series have been against teams either near the top or leading their division.
KC is next.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 9:23 am to Prominentwon
..and KC is playing .500 ball as well..
Posted on 5/20/13 at 10:26 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Houston on the road to date is at -210 average, at home it is -151.
They have played Seattle, LAA, Oakland, Boston, NYY, Detroit and Pitt on the road.
Miami's home vs road lines have been -138 and -175 on average.
Yes, but not really relevant going forward as lines change. Great example is Pedro Martinez back around 2000 or 2001 when he had his historic year. His line would get up to -450 at times later in the season.
That is what you are seeing with the stros. Wins now with the higher lines will hurt worse than in April.
This post was edited on 5/20/13 at 10:27 am
Posted on 5/20/13 at 11:00 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
I think it's relevant based on their competition.
Playing 10 of 14 series vs teams either first or second in their respective divisions drives prices up, especially with Houston's weak starting pitching.
Playing 10 of 14 series vs teams either first or second in their respective divisions drives prices up, especially with Houston's weak starting pitching.
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