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Tracking a bet-against the Astros & Marlins every game the rest of the way..
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:23 pm
The Astros are 10-28 (26.3%) and the Marlins are 11-27 (28.9%).
If that extrapolates through the last 127 games (36-91) and the average bet is -165, you will finish +3160 if you goal is to win $100 each game.
Tonight.. Texas @ -220 & LAD @ -141
ETA: YTD BET AGAINST ASTROS AND MARLINS
Added the above spreadsheet showing the totals YTD if you bet against the Astros all season. To make it simple, the bets are to win 100. The Stros were favs in 2 games right around at -102 and -107. I left them as even money so it wouldn't wreck the spreadsheet.
The current average line through 36 games is -166.
YTD: +$1,368. Betting against Astros.
YTD: +$1,049. Betting against Marlins.
If that extrapolates through the last 127 games (36-91) and the average bet is -165, you will finish +3160 if you goal is to win $100 each game.
Tonight.. Texas @ -220 & LAD @ -141
ETA: YTD BET AGAINST ASTROS AND MARLINS
Added the above spreadsheet showing the totals YTD if you bet against the Astros all season. To make it simple, the bets are to win 100. The Stros were favs in 2 games right around at -102 and -107. I left them as even money so it wouldn't wreck the spreadsheet.
The current average line through 36 games is -166.
YTD: +$1,368. Betting against Astros.
YTD: +$1,049. Betting against Marlins.
This post was edited on 5/12/13 at 8:04 pm
14
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:25 pm to LSUAlum2001
like stealing money 
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:27 pm to StraightCashHomey21
I'm pissed that I missed out on nearly 1K so far.. 
It would be great if this works. It'll fund the entire football season.
It would be great if this works. It'll fund the entire football season.
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:42 pm to LSUAlum2001
a guy did this for the pirates a few years ago. it was confusing as frick, but i think he came out a little ahead. there is his whole process online somewhere. google "pirate bet" or something like that.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:50 pm to LSUAlum2001
I was already on Texas -1.5
Keuchel sucks and Ogando dominates the Stros.
Keuchel sucks and Ogando dominates the Stros.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 3:52 pm to LSUAlum2001
Would be interesting to do it with 50 on ML and 50 on run line.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 4:07 pm to bamafan425
I'll set up a speadsheet to track both.
10 or so years ago, the Tigers were horrid and betting against them, assuming -165 against, netted you 4k
Eta: Earlier in the year, about 15 games in, the average Astros line was -159.
10 or so years ago, the Tigers were horrid and betting against them, assuming -165 against, netted you 4k
Eta: Earlier in the year, about 15 games in, the average Astros line was -159.
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 4:10 pm to LSUAlum2001
furk. 50-112 over our last 162.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:05 pm to LSUAlum2001
So you bet 165 dollars that they'll lose...every game. Every time you win the bet you get 100 and that more than covers your losses. Is this correct?
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:15 pm to ReauxlTide222
Yes.
You have to bet 165 to win 100. I'm making an assumption that if you average out the 127 remaining game's lines, the average will be -165.
If they continue on this 28.5% clip and go 36-91 the rest of the way, you will lose $5,940 on the 36 losses, but you will win $9,100 on the 91 wins; totaling a +$3,160 profit.
I'll spend a few min later and give you guys the run down of their first 35 games and the closing lines.
You have to bet 165 to win 100. I'm making an assumption that if you average out the 127 remaining game's lines, the average will be -165.
If they continue on this 28.5% clip and go 36-91 the rest of the way, you will lose $5,940 on the 36 losses, but you will win $9,100 on the 91 wins; totaling a +$3,160 profit.
I'll spend a few min later and give you guys the run down of their first 35 games and the closing lines.
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:19 pm to LSUAlum2001
I may do this on a much smaller scale.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:22 pm to St Augustine
Haha why?! Seems foolproof to me.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:28 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:
a guy did this for the pirates a few years ago. it was confusing as frick, but i think he came out a little ahead. there is his whole process online somewhere. google "pirate bet" or something like that.
Here is his spreadsheet
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:29 pm to ReauxlTide222
wife, newborn, the end
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:34 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
You have to bet 165 to win 100. I'm making an assumption that if you average out the 127 remaining game's lines, the average will be -165.
This assumption is probably incorrect, yes? As a team shows its ineptitude, the odds againsst will become longer and longer.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:34 pm to ReauxlTide222
Three things:
1. If the Stros go on a 10 game winning streak.
2. If Vegas bumps up the average line the rest of the way to closer to -200. Doubtful.
3. The Stros right the ship and win 40% of their games the rest of the way. Most likely of these 3.
I'm taking my chances on the Stros continuing on a 30% clip.
1. If the Stros go on a 10 game winning streak.
2. If Vegas bumps up the average line the rest of the way to closer to -200. Doubtful.
3. The Stros right the ship and win 40% of their games the rest of the way. Most likely of these 3.
I'm taking my chances on the Stros continuing on a 30% clip.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:38 pm to bobbyray21
Vegas already knows how horrible this team is..
The last 3 lines vs LAA: -140, -150 and -170.
The did manage to win 2/3, though.
The last 3 lines vs LAA: -140, -150 and -170.
The did manage to win 2/3, though.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:45 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Vegas already knows how horrible this team is..
The last 3 lines vs LAA: -140, -150 and -170.
The did manage to win 2/3, though.
Why is the ML -220 tonight?*
*I don't follow baseball.**
**But will happily bet on it if a mechanical system would work.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:48 pm to bobbyray21
It's -220 because Ogando is good and the Astros starter sucks.
However, it's baseball, and a huge dog can win on an given day.
My hope is.. Not many times.
However, it's baseball, and a huge dog can win on an given day.
My hope is.. Not many times.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:48 pm to St Augustine
I'm glad the Astros can at least help some people out with their putridness.
Seriously...frick Bud Selig for forcing them into the AL West, frick this new owner for taking the money, frick Ed Wade, Tim Purpura, Tal Smith, and everyone else responsible for creating this absolute dumpster fire behind an abortion clinic of a team.
Seriously...frick Bud Selig for forcing them into the AL West, frick this new owner for taking the money, frick Ed Wade, Tim Purpura, Tal Smith, and everyone else responsible for creating this absolute dumpster fire behind an abortion clinic of a team.
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 5:51 pm
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