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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika
Posted on 4/20/13 at 9:04 pm to bonethug0108
Posted on 4/20/13 at 9:04 pm to bonethug0108
TLDR warning 
here's an essence of disagreement of some... that is, how you rate need. That's thread worthy but I'll just chip in here...
So in the rate the position need 1-10 I'm assuming we're only talking about the the #15 pick. All will agree that Lane Johnson will be gone by #15. On the trade, San Diego would never trade that away. If you rated their needs LT would be far and away greater than even here. But say ya could... I'd call #75 + #144 (249pts) fair compensation. That is even a discount for the 250pts from #15 to #10. So is Lane Johnson worth your 1st, 3rd, & 5th Rd draft picks? Not for me. I think we can get guys vying for reps with that #75. Anyway back to need rating...
QB-RB-FB 0 sure
WR- big disagreement from a 7. On this team even a #15 would have to earn the reps behind Colston and Moore. So at best he's a #3 WR to start. Toon was a player discounted for injuries. He'll get a shot too. Healthy he could make Colston difficult to keep as his contract escalates.
TE dunno if it's even a 2 for a rookie
OG 0 for me, no guarantee even a Cooper or Warmack would be as good as Grubbs
RT- Xed off, could be a giant upgrade but with the logjam of RTs it makes no sense
LT- here's the trick, one of the top 3, sure a big upgrade. But the cost of only having a 4th and 6th pick afterwards seems too exorbitant for that upgrade. The next tier down all would be reaches at #15. So put whatever you want for trading up. But for who will be available at #15 the upgrade number is extremely lower. ( Anyone remember newly acquired Jason Smith was the #2 overall pick just 4 years ago?)
K- well if we're using 1st Rd this isn't even applicable. Beyond even 1st Rd I don't know of any college kicker that would immediately make it a 7 improvement.
DE I can go with 5 mostly cuz we're pretty optimistic about Jordan but don't really know what we have beyond that
NT Big disagreement here. I'd call Star a potential 9-10 upgrade over Bunkley/Hicks. Richardson 8-9 potentially.
OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno. Believe me, I want that as deep in my soul as anyone. We know how weak the pass rush has been. In essence the expectation for that is being rested on the 2 OLBs way more than anyone else. I want to be stacked there. In a 3-4 for the two most necessary ingredients are an effective nose tackle plugging and OLB pass rush. Pour the resources there.
CB 7 is an upgrade over Robinson and White, in essence the nickel & dime spots. No #15 CB would be a sure starter over either Greer or Lewis. So for me I can see getting a CB to build on but for upgrading your #3 or 4 CB I can only say 3 or 4.
FS big disagreement again. Vacarro might be the only one who would challenge Jenkins to start. Any other at #15 would be a reach. Might they do someone? Sure. But all we can do is try to decipher our own estimation of value. That's hard enough much less trying to say they like this or that player more. On that btw, methinks the Reid talk is reading way to heavy in to any tidbits read. Smokescreens are common. Also, plenty of teams like a player. But the trick is the value where ya get them. Reid at #15 is a joke to me. Reid at #75 and I'm saying, Okay, that's a solid pick.
SS- I may go Elam & Cyprien as upgrades over Harper but would be disappointed with either at #15. So upgrade? Maybe but at the detriment of the team overall. After those two some may end up better but certainly are not surefire upgrades.
here's an essence of disagreement of some... that is, how you rate need. That's thread worthy but I'll just chip in here...
So in the rate the position need 1-10 I'm assuming we're only talking about the the #15 pick. All will agree that Lane Johnson will be gone by #15. On the trade, San Diego would never trade that away. If you rated their needs LT would be far and away greater than even here. But say ya could... I'd call #75 + #144 (249pts) fair compensation. That is even a discount for the 250pts from #15 to #10. So is Lane Johnson worth your 1st, 3rd, & 5th Rd draft picks? Not for me. I think we can get guys vying for reps with that #75. Anyway back to need rating...
QB-RB-FB 0 sure
WR- big disagreement from a 7. On this team even a #15 would have to earn the reps behind Colston and Moore. So at best he's a #3 WR to start. Toon was a player discounted for injuries. He'll get a shot too. Healthy he could make Colston difficult to keep as his contract escalates.
TE dunno if it's even a 2 for a rookie
OG 0 for me, no guarantee even a Cooper or Warmack would be as good as Grubbs
RT- Xed off, could be a giant upgrade but with the logjam of RTs it makes no sense
LT- here's the trick, one of the top 3, sure a big upgrade. But the cost of only having a 4th and 6th pick afterwards seems too exorbitant for that upgrade. The next tier down all would be reaches at #15. So put whatever you want for trading up. But for who will be available at #15 the upgrade number is extremely lower. ( Anyone remember newly acquired Jason Smith was the #2 overall pick just 4 years ago?)
K- well if we're using 1st Rd this isn't even applicable. Beyond even 1st Rd I don't know of any college kicker that would immediately make it a 7 improvement.
DE I can go with 5 mostly cuz we're pretty optimistic about Jordan but don't really know what we have beyond that
NT Big disagreement here. I'd call Star a potential 9-10 upgrade over Bunkley/Hicks. Richardson 8-9 potentially.
OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno. Believe me, I want that as deep in my soul as anyone. We know how weak the pass rush has been. In essence the expectation for that is being rested on the 2 OLBs way more than anyone else. I want to be stacked there. In a 3-4 for the two most necessary ingredients are an effective nose tackle plugging and OLB pass rush. Pour the resources there.
CB 7 is an upgrade over Robinson and White, in essence the nickel & dime spots. No #15 CB would be a sure starter over either Greer or Lewis. So for me I can see getting a CB to build on but for upgrading your #3 or 4 CB I can only say 3 or 4.
FS big disagreement again. Vacarro might be the only one who would challenge Jenkins to start. Any other at #15 would be a reach. Might they do someone? Sure. But all we can do is try to decipher our own estimation of value. That's hard enough much less trying to say they like this or that player more. On that btw, methinks the Reid talk is reading way to heavy in to any tidbits read. Smokescreens are common. Also, plenty of teams like a player. But the trick is the value where ya get them. Reid at #15 is a joke to me. Reid at #75 and I'm saying, Okay, that's a solid pick.
SS- I may go Elam & Cyprien as upgrades over Harper but would be disappointed with either at #15. So upgrade? Maybe but at the detriment of the team overall. After those two some may end up better but certainly are not surefire upgrades.
3
Posted on 4/20/13 at 9:13 pm to blueslover
My ratings weren't for need. Those are impact ratings. Basically how much would a top player at any position that panned out impact the team. It doesn't rely on where we pick, just an IF we were to get a top player.
For WR, you need 3 deep in today's nfl. I think the top WRs in this draft are an immediate upgrade over Morgan(who I have high hopes for) and Toon. Our offense would be even more dynamic with one of these guys.
TE is for blocking skills when using a TE to block and receiving skills when using double TE sets and putting both in routes. I think the top TEs would be slightly better receivers than Watson and possible decent enough blockers.
OG I think the top 2 could be a small upgrade over Grubbs(which is why it's just a 1). Could also see a 0 here.
RT would be an obvious upgrade but we are not devoid of talent there.
LT we agree on aside from misunderstanding my ratings.
K I'll admit to not knowing much about this class. Maybe there is no upgrade but we could use consistency. 7 was probably high anyway, especially for a kicker. Maybe a 4-5 if any of these Ks are worth a lick.
NT we disagree(mostly because I think people are undervaluing Bunkley and Hicks). I don't see the top guys being that much better, especially since it's one of the hardest positions to adjust to.
OLB we disagree again. I don't see the top guys as that much more skilled(and in some cases not as skilled).
FS I think any would be a huge improvement over Jenkins. I thought zone would suit him better than anyone yet he seemed to be the worst afflicted by it. And he was the Bushrod(slightly better) of the defense under Williams, only showing a few small flashes. IAQ outplayed him and I don't think he is great by any means.
SS I think some of these guys will be good in the box(not as good as Harper but good enough), but will be much better in coverage and that's where the impact comes from.
For WR, you need 3 deep in today's nfl. I think the top WRs in this draft are an immediate upgrade over Morgan(who I have high hopes for) and Toon. Our offense would be even more dynamic with one of these guys.
TE is for blocking skills when using a TE to block and receiving skills when using double TE sets and putting both in routes. I think the top TEs would be slightly better receivers than Watson and possible decent enough blockers.
OG I think the top 2 could be a small upgrade over Grubbs(which is why it's just a 1). Could also see a 0 here.
RT would be an obvious upgrade but we are not devoid of talent there.
LT we agree on aside from misunderstanding my ratings.
K I'll admit to not knowing much about this class. Maybe there is no upgrade but we could use consistency. 7 was probably high anyway, especially for a kicker. Maybe a 4-5 if any of these Ks are worth a lick.
NT we disagree(mostly because I think people are undervaluing Bunkley and Hicks). I don't see the top guys being that much better, especially since it's one of the hardest positions to adjust to.
OLB we disagree again. I don't see the top guys as that much more skilled(and in some cases not as skilled).
FS I think any would be a huge improvement over Jenkins. I thought zone would suit him better than anyone yet he seemed to be the worst afflicted by it. And he was the Bushrod(slightly better) of the defense under Williams, only showing a few small flashes. IAQ outplayed him and I don't think he is great by any means.
SS I think some of these guys will be good in the box(not as good as Harper but good enough), but will be much better in coverage and that's where the impact comes from.
This post was edited on 4/20/13 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 4/20/13 at 10:17 pm to blueslover
quote:
OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno.
Blues bring solid logic to the board, again.
I agree. I don't know why so many people are confident on our OLBs.
Bonethug, nice post. I don't agree with some of the things you covered, but i like the work you put into the post.
Posted on 4/20/13 at 10:47 pm to blueslover
quote:
OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno.
No problem with adding guys later. No problem adding Jones early as he brings a dominant history at the position or even ansah if he's there(he won't be) as his size and speed are just freakish. Do not want Jordan or Mingo. They haven't proven jack in the NFL or played the position in college. We have one guy who produced as an undersized speedy DE and one guy who produced as much as possible backing up one of the best in the game. They produced comparable numbers to our the collegiate prospects but at the NFL level . And we have a third who essentially a physical clone of Mingo. I'd be willing to bet that our guys have just as big an impact as the two projects in Mingo and Jordan.
This post was edited on 4/20/13 at 10:53 pm
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