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mmcgrath 
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
2166 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:15 pm to NC_Tigah)
quote:
Nope.
Looks like the labor participation rate and the baby boomer population match up to me. Pretty spot on.
In fact by definition (as was pointed out... thank you SouthernElite) the Labor Participation Rate would be based entirely on the population size between 15 and 65.
The Unemployment Rate however includes the 80 year old dude who wants a job but no-one will hire him... so maybe he gives up looking and becomes "discouraged".
Right or wrong?
This post was edited on 1/26 at 3:17 pm
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40213 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:16 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
From your link, the "Labor Force Population" number is not used to calculate unemployment, only participation rates.
quote:
the decline has nothing to do with “retiring baby boomers.” That trend line has been flat since President Obama took office. In fact according to Daniel Hartley, a research economist with The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland:
While the young and middle-aged have been hopping out of the labor pool, older Americans have been hopping in. The participation rate of people 55 and up has been increasing since the mid-1990s (although it has pretty much flattened out since 2007). Some attribute this change to seniors’ improving health, which allows them to continue working later into life. Others maintain that the financial crisis may have adversely affected retirement accounts, causing older workers to delay retirement in order to rebuild their savings.
LINK
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40213 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:16 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
wrong
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RogerTheShrubber
LSU Fan
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
72069 posts
 Online
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:17 pm to Robin Masters)
People are still reluctant to spend, invest and rehire. Signs of recovery are there but as predicted, the recovery is sluggish.
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southernelite 
McNeese State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
33060 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:18 pm to Powerman)
quote:
So when the markets go up, it isn't entirely insignificant.
also not the end all be all beacon you're making it out to be here. as I said, the Fed is pumping trillions of dollars into this, to keep this thing moving. it's not completely self sustaining.
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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
2166 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:23 pm to NC_Tigah)
quote:
NC_Tigah
While Labor Force Population is used to calculate Labor Participation Rate, it would only make the participation rate go up if older people are staying in. So while the article you quote is correct, your statement is false... at least according to Southern Elite's link.
Can you show me where Unemployment numbers do not include people above 65 seeking employment? Serious question.
This post was edited on 1/26 at 3:30 pm
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southernelite
McNeese State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
33060 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:27 pm to mmcgrath)
it's not about people retiring though. it's about people entering the workforce. there are more people entering than leaving.
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acgeaux129
LSU Fan
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
13822 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:28 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Powerman
Your ignorance never stops you. 
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115744 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:28 pm to southernelite)
quote:
it's about people entering the workforce. there are more people entering than leaving.
And we're probably on the brink of that trend reversing within a couple of years.
All these retirement aged people will retire provided that their retirement accounts keep growing
And there are A LOT of them. I think you're going to see a massive amount of people retire in the coming years. Hopefully we will have the skill to replace the positions that they leave vacated.
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acgeaux129
LSU Fan
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
13822 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:29 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Man it's a really a shame that the growth of these retirement accounts is meaningless. I mean tens of trillions of dollars can't mean anything to our economy right?
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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
2166 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:31 pm to southernelite)
quote:
it's not about people retiring though. it's about people entering the workforce. there are more people entering than leaving.
I may have to do a slight mea culpa, as what I was saying was correct, but referring to a wrong graph. But if participation rates are down, wouldn't that mean that more people are leaving than entering the workforce?
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acgeaux129
LSU Fan
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
13822 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:31 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Right
The housing bubble obviously caused us some problems
And homes being more affordable helps younger people get access to owning homes
I'm not sure why people desire to have a fake inflated housing market again but I guess they need something to bitch about.
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southernelite
McNeese State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
33060 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:32 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Posted by Powerman quote: it's about people entering the workforce. there are more people entering than leaving. And we're probably on the brink of that trend reversing within a couple of years. All these retirement aged people will retire provided that their retirement accounts keep growing And there are A LOT of them. I think you're going to see a massive amount of people retire in the coming years. Hopefully we will have the skill to replace the positions that they leave vacated.
So now this is about your opinion?
Or is your opinion based on fact? where's the statistical analysis for this? you've got hand picked numbers for everything else.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115744 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:33 pm to acgeaux129)
I mean seriously...how can people act as if retirement wealth growing is anything other than a good thing?
We're knocking on the door of 20 trillion in wealth in these accounts and people are acting as if it's an afterthought that the markets are performing so well.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40213 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:33 pm to Powerman)
quote:
But to act as if it's an afterthought when markets are performing well is just sillyness
Silliness? As it is to assume past return equates to future performance?
Do you know what costs (interest rates) to finance Sovereign Debt have historically run?
Do you know what those costs for the US are currently?
Do you know what portion of our budget those costs occupy?
Do you know what portion of our budget those would costs occupy if we returned to more normal historical interest rates?
Do you know what portion of our budget those costs will occupy as US debt expands to >$20Trillion?
Do you understand the economic importance any of that?
Do you understand why you appear to be a sunshine pumper?
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RCDfan1950
LSU Fan
United States
Member since Feb 2007
6651 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:35 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Are we finally out of the recession?Be prepared for all of the people on this forum to tell you how that's really a bad thing somehow
P-man...would you and Want venture a guess as to how much QUANITATIVE EASING that they pumped into this economy? And I live in Hillsdale! 
Forward.
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southernelite
McNeese State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
33060 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:38 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
I may have to do a slight mea culpa, as what I was saying was correct, but referring to a wrong graph. But if participation rates are down, wouldn't that mean that more people are leaving than entering the workforce?
no. more people entering LF doesn't mean more people looking for work.
when they enter whether they are looking or not, they are added to LFpop but only LF if they're looking for a job. I think, I've confused myself.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40213 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:38 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
Can you show me where Unemployment numbers do not include people above 65 seeking employment?
I believe they do.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40213 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:42 pm to Powerman)
quote:
We're knocking on the door of 20 trillion in wealth in these accounts and people are acting as if it's an afterthought that the markets are performing so well.
And you are acting as if that money is safe and absolute. Is that your impression?
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RCDfan1950
LSU Fan
United States
Member since Feb 2007
6651 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 3:45 pm to NC_Tigah)
quote:
And you are acting as if that money is safe and absolute. Is that your impression?
He don't know about "money heaven", NC.
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