Are we finally out of the recession? - Page 8 - TigerDroppings.com

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southernelite
Iowa State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
39953 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

trillions of dollars of wealth being recovered over the last couple years.


recovered? or pumped in by the Fed?

why the need for QE if everything is so grand?






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

I'm no John Locke but in my view if the legal industry is thriving then you can bet there is healthy commerce taking place. The legal industry sucks right now. No firms are hiring and many are selling out, closing up shop or laying off attorneys. American Legal Search has had several long term head hunters quit recently because the market is so bad
Less business = less need for lawyers.

Or there could be too many people on law school

It's a saturated field.

And that's the most absurd fricking economic hypothesis yet. Not enough lawyers being hired so the economy must suck.






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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
3196 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


Doesn't the Labor Participation Rate agree antirely with the Baby Boomer generation retiring from the work force? How can it not be the major factor?
US Birth Rates




Wouldn't all of the new babies that came in around 1945 start retiring around 2010?



This post was edited on 1/26 at 2:46 pm


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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


LINK

quote:

Total U.S. retirement assets reached $17.9 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011, up 4.9% from the third quarter, according to the Investment Company Institute.

Man it's a really a shame that the growth of these retirement accounts is meaningless. I mean tens of trillions of dollars can't mean anything to our economy right?






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

mmcgrath

Good luck with these people

That might be more truth than they're wiling to swallow

Repeat after me: EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE






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southernelite
Iowa State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
39953 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Man it's a really a shame that the growth of these retirement accounts is meaningless. I mean tens of trillions of dollars can't mean anything to our economy right?



How's that compare to 2006?






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
48271 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

So we're just going to arbitrarily truncate
Honey, that's just the way hedge funds are publicly reported. In the case of one's I'm invested with, I've got more information, but we're shying away from the anecdotal. Right?

The market's up about 10% over the last 2 years combined. 8% or so over the last 10 months. But then again we've had 8 straight days with the markets up. ~1.8% on the DOW and 6% ytd. If we continue that, we'll be looking at a 72% gain in the DJIA by 2013. Do you think thats likely?

So with DJIA up 9.72%/52wks, you wouldn't be using this month's bump as an "arbitrarily truncated" endpoint, would you?

You think 8 straight days up are more likely to result in a 9th, or are 8 straight days up more likely to result in a market pullback?
I just want to know exactly where to "truncate".




This post was edited on 1/26 at 2:58 pm


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RogerTheShrubber
LSU Fan
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
87639 posts
 Online 

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Doesn't the Labor Participation Rate agree antirely with the Baby Boomer generation retiring from the work force? How can it not be the major factor?


You still have to factor unemployment rates to get a good picture of what's going on. Many of those jobs being vacated aren't being filled. Capacity and utilization rates help fill in the gaps

LINK






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southernelite
Iowa State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
39953 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Wouldn't all of the new babies that came in around 1945 start retiring around 2010?



Yes, but Labor Force population usually does not include retirees.

quote:

LINK ]

[quote]LFpop = labor force population (generally defined as all men and women aged 15-64)


quote:

p = participation rate = LF / LFpop


Hmm...






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
48271 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Doesn't the Labor Participation Rate agree antirely with the Baby Boomer generation retiring from the work force?
Nope.






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:



How's that compare to 2006?



Is that the new arbitrary point that we need to go back to to see if things are improving currently?






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southernelite
Iowa State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
39953 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


And also, care to address why the need for QE and pumping all this money into an economy that is thriving?

or ignoring that cause it doesn't fit your train track view on recovery?






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southernelite
Iowa State Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2009
39953 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Is that the new arbitrary point that we need to go back to to see if things are improving currently?

You compared 1 quarter to 1 quarter. I don't know, you tell me?






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:


You compared 1 quarter to 1 quarter. I don't know, you tell me?



FWIW the total value of all retirement accounts in 2006 was 16.7 trillion

That article is from April 2012 and it was 17.9 trillion

I'd have to think that amount would be getting close to 19 trillion by now






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


This gives some good data though 2010 FWIW

LINK







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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
3196 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Yes, but Labor Force population usually does not include retirees.


From your link, the "Labor Force Population" number is not used to calculate unemployment, only participation rates.






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
48271 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

I'd have to think that amount would be getting close to 19 trillion by now
$19.4Trillion







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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

And also, care to address why the need for QE and pumping all this money into an economy that is thriving?

or ignoring that cause it doesn't fit your train track view on recovery?


I don't know that I'd call it thriving

But we certainly aren't in a recession and things aren't as bad as the doom and gloom that is reported in this insane asylum.

The markets however are booming






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Robin Masters
Alabama Fan
Birmingham
Member since Jul 2010
2239 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

Or there could be too many people on law school

It's a saturated field.

And that's the most absurd fricking economic hypothesis yet. Not enough lawyers being hired so the economy must suck


You don't read so well. Lawyers are being laid off, fired and firms are closing. Now tell me how law school students are forcing these circumstances...this should be interesting.

Not writing a book or even suggesting a hypothesis, just an observation. Your agenda is pretty transparent by the way. Powerman? More like Waterboy.






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120328 posts

re: Are we finally out of the recession?


quote:

$19.4Trillion

Probably slightly higher than that then since that's from 2012 Q3

The main point is that there is a lot of money involved in these plans. So when the markets go up, it isn't entirely insignificant.

Sure if you don't have a retirement account or any other type of investment account it doesn't help you out much.

But to act as if it's an afterthought when markets are performing well is just sillyness






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