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townhallsavoy 
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2007
2301 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:42 am to Powerman)
The economy's back?
Good. Someone buy my house.
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Powerman 
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:43 am to Ton Chou)
quote:
Dude, we are going on 4 plus years of new claims for unemployment being between 300 and 400k per MONTH
Right
And the latest month is the lowest it has been in 5 years
That's a good thing
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StPeteLSU
LSU Fan
St Petersburg, FL
Member since Oct 2011
989 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:44 am to GumboPot)
What is the libs argument against this? Something is seriously wrong.
The U.S. welfare system sure creates some crazy disincentives to working your way up the ladder. Benefits stacked upon benefits can mean it is financially better, at least in the short term, to stay at a lower-paying jobs rather than taking a higher paying job and losing those benefits. This is called the “welfare cliff.”
Let’s take the example of a single mom with two kids, 1 and 4. She has a $29,000 a year job, putting the kids in daycare during the day while she works.
As the above chart – via Gary Alexander, Pennsylvania’s secretary of Public Welfare — shows, the single mom is better off earning gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income and benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income & benefits of $57,045.
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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
17345 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:48 am to StPeteLSU)
quote:
As the above chart – via Gary Alexander, Pennsylvania’s secretary of Public Welfare — shows, the single mom is better off earning gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income and benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income & benefits of $57,045.
Yeah this is crazy. Now we pretty much know why many people would rather not work (low participation rate).
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eelsuee
LSU Fan
2B+!2B
Member since Oct 2004
3662 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:50 am to Powerman)
quote:
I don't think we're approaching any sort of bubble like we were in 2007-2008.
While I admittedly don't have a great understanding of this topic, I disagree with you here. US government debt has increase over $3,000 per person per year (every person in this country) since 2008. I hope you agree that isn't sustainable and will eventually have to be dealt with. I believe that to be one bubble.
Second, if inflation hasn't caught up with all the dollars QE1-QE3 pushed into the market, then there is a bubble in the current value of the dollar.
Again, I am not self proclaimed expert on this but: Government borrowing LOTS of money and fed keeping interest rates at record lows has to equal problems to be dealt with in the future.
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Bestbank Tiger 
Tulane Fan
Landmass Gulf Coast
Member since Jan 2005
15725 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:50 am to StPeteLSU)
quote:
As the above chart – via Gary Alexander, Pennsylvania’s secretary of Public Welfare — shows, the single mom is better off earning gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income and benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income & benefits of $57,045.
The big problem with that isn't even that it encourages laziness. The problem is that you don't jump straight from a $29K job to a $69K job. You have to work your way up. And if a promotion means a significant pay cut, you really don't have a choice. You have to turn it down because taking the promotion will hurt your family.
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Bestbank Tiger
Tulane Fan
Landmass Gulf Coast
Member since Jan 2005
15725 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:51 am to Powerman)
quote:
And the latest month is the lowest it has been in 5 years
Some dude has been kicking me in the nuts 10 times a day. Yesterday he only kicked me 8 times. That's a good thing.
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StPeteLSU
LSU Fan
St Petersburg, FL
Member since Oct 2011
989 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:55 am to Bestbank Tiger)
Your nuts may quit producing after 8 times!
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weagle99
Ridin' on the Gus Bus
Member since Nov 2011
4143 posts
 Online
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 10:58 am to Tiger n Miami AU83)
quote:
baby boomers retiring
What industry do you see where this is happening? Every worker I know close to retirement is working as long as they can due to uncertainty. Anecdotal? Yes, but I don't think isolated.
This post was edited on 1/26 at 10:59 am
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:05 am to Bestbank Tiger)
quote:
Some dude has been kicking me in the nuts 10 times a day. Yesterday he only kicked me 8 times. That's a good thing.
It's better than 10 right? 
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:06 am to weagle99)
quote:
What industry do you see where this is happening? Every worker I know close to retirement is working as long as they can due to uncertainty. Anecdotal? Yes, but I don't think isolated.
Right
BUT, that's why the market going up is a good thing. As the value in those retirement accounts continues to escalate, the probability of those people retiring only goes up.
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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
17345 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:09 am to eelsuee)
quote:
I don't think we're approaching any sort of bubble like we were in 2007-2008.
Bond bubble. Bonds are at all time highs, meaning all time low borrowing costs. Think for a second what happens when the bond bubble burst and borrowing cost "necessarily skyrocket".
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:11 am to GumboPot)
This thread is pretty funny
Everyone here is an economic guru. Yet half of them have their own personal financial lives in dire straights.
Hmmm
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:16 am to Powerman)
To put the initial jobless claims in perspective
The trend is a downward trend and in the past couple weeks it has been a SHARP downward trend
I for one hope that trend continues. It seems like everyone here wants us to go into the great depression though.
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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
17345 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:18 am to Powerman)
quote:
Yet half of them have their own personal financial lives in dire straights.
Meh, I don't see it that way. I see it as an argument that current policies are not encouraging people to get back to work. Why work a regular job when you can receive 99 weeks of unemployment along working cash jobs on the side?
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:21 am to GumboPot)
quote:
Meh, I don't see it that way
We've had at least 2 if not 3 anecdotes about how the economy must suck because of people struggling in their personal life here.
How could you not see it that way? That's exactly what has happened here.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40063 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:26 am to Powerman)
quote:
To put the initial jobless claims in perspective
Why?
What value do you place in initial jobless claims numbers?
It is a stat, like so many you seem to bring up, that is virtually worthless in this circumstance.
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ForeLSU
LSU Fan
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
30353 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:31 am to Powerman)
quote:
So what about all of the recent good economic data? All fiction?
not fiction, but you have to dig a little deeper. How much is being driven by the Fed, banks having free money to play with, deficit spending, etc. It's like bragging to your buddies about getting laid every night by a different chick, and not telling them you're in Vegas paying hookers. The market is still pretty much correlated with the fed balance sheet.
Good corporate earnings, in many cases, are more the result of management action than a thriving economy. Companies are still hoarding cash and squeezing their employees like crazy to keep payroll numbers from growing. I don't expect much change in 2013, probably around 2%.
This post was edited on 1/26 at 11:35 am
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PrimeTime Money
Stetson Fan
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
2319 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:33 am to Powerman)
What does stock market rallies have to do with the overall health of the economy?
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AFtigerFan
LSU Fan
Dayton, OH
Member since Feb 2008
512 posts
| re: Are we finally out of the recession? (Posted on 1/26/13 at 11:36 am to Powerman)
quote:
It seems like everyone here wants us to go into the great depression though.
Not this guy here. While I don't like what I've seen out of this president or our elected officials, and I don't think their policies are working one bit, I sincerely hope I'm wrong. I hope everything gets better, and I promise I'll be the first one to say I was wrong.
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