An estimate of points for or against in 100 possessions based on box score data and some small amount of analysis and NBA-wide factors.

For example, a larger number of offensive rebounds slows pace (longer possessions) while made field goals and turnovers all increase pace. These affect the ratings differently, however, as made shots count as points, turnovers count as no points, and offensive rebounds give a chance for points. That is why it is a little murky to eyeball.

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Posted by corndeaux

Member since Sep 2009

9634 posts

Posted on 4/2/13 at 10:58 pm to 42

quote:
An estimate of points for or against in 100 possessions based on box score data and some small amount of analysis and NBA-wide factors.

Yep. It's a way to normalize the stats so that pace does not skew the results. How they count the possessions seems to be a matter of debate.

For example, Monty's defenses last year- they were great, giving up 93.4 ppg, good for 8th in the league. However the team played at the slowest pace in the league. When you look at it per 100 possessions, they come out at 16th. Still solid, but not spectacular- which I think matches the eye ball test.

Or look at the 07-08 team's offense- prime CP, healthy Peja, All-Star West, and effective Chandler. They ranked 9th in ppg. Very good. They also played at the 5th slowest pace. Sacramento averaged nearly the same ppg, but they played at the 8th fastest pace to get there. When you take pace out of the equation, the Hornets had the 5th best offense, just two points per 100 possessions behind Dantoni Suns. The Kings? 14th best offense.

All of these numbers are coming from NBA.com

This post was edited on 4/2/13 at 11:01 pm

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