Basketball Bet Thread 12-22-2012

bad day for me yesterday... hoping to rebound today

early leans:

Wizards PK- I know it seems weird for the NBA, but I like immediate revenge spots in this league. if Nene plays I think I'll take the Wizards.. They got blown out by the Pistons yesterday, but I don't think it's an accurate reflection of the gap between these two teams.

Pacers -3.5- Feel like this line might be a bit low. Hornets are the worst team in the NBA at home. In fact, they play worse at home than on the road. George can have a big game, Pacers are an excellent defensive team while the Hornets are the worst in the NBA.

Heat -8.5 - I don't like the way the lines moving, from 9.5 to 85... but the Heat are starting to play much better defensively with Joel Anthony inserted into the lineup... better defensive team with Anthony/Battier and - Lewis. Utah's bigs are nice, but given their road ineptitude, the Heat beginning to play like the Heat, and the explosive wings that Utah typically has no answer for... I like the Heat

Lakers PK - Lakers are a better team with Gasol... The Warriors bigs are bad defensively, and Howard especially and perhaps Gasol will be able to exploit it... don't see anyone slowing down Kobe. Not to say Curry won't have a solid game, but he's not the type of PG that has given the Lakers fits in recent years. Lakers are probably not as bad as their record while the Warriors are a pretender.

Some early games I'll be playing:

UIC -3 (Main Play)
SE Missouri St -3 (Lean)

Bought .5pts on both.

My numbers that I used from the regular season are 4-0 in bowl games, I had UCF by 20 last night.

My numbers like the favorites, but you've followed me enough to know I don't really like playing favorites.

I think Boise is a great bet, thats all I am rolling with today.

I have Syracuse by 6.

What do you think about the Murray State at Dayton game? I'm thinking about taking Murray.

Dillard is supposedly out too

quote:

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Dg, did you develop the system you play? Or is something you researched?

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Years of trial and error for one.

I always use systems I personally put together in excel, but I definitely make use of all the tools the Internet provides us with.

It took me years to realize I was never going to be able to be on the right side of every game, and focusing my efforts on finding value on just a few specific games. College Basketball is probably the easiest to find value because of the vast number of teams and games played, Vegas can't get perfect numbers on a lot of the smaller schools.

Added unc -22

Added Georgia and FSU