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Decatur 
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14891 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:16 am to prplhze2000)
quote:
participation rate. Look at it.
ok looking at it
looks like it has been going down since the 90s
what am I supposed to take away from this?
This post was edited on 12/7 at 11:17 am
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ironsides
LSU Fan
new york, ny
Member since May 2006
4406 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:19 am to Decatur)
Good analysis on the current jobs #
The working-age population went from 243,983 to 244,174 (thousands), an increase of 191,000 working-age people. But the total number of employed people fell from 144,039 (thosuands) to 143,549, a loss of 490,000 actual employed people!
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Decatur
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14891 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:19 am to Lsut81)
quote:
No fricking way that number is a real number
So if the number goes down, it's a conspiracy to make the economy look better
If the number goes up, it was a conspiracy that lowered the number so Obama could get reelected and now it's back up
Conspiracies all around
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ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Savannah, GA
Member since Oct 2008
23984 posts
 Online
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:24 am to Decatur)
quote:
looks like it has been going down since the 90s what am I supposed to take away from this?
LOL
Since the 90s? Hmm
And regardless of where you decide to start calling it a downward trend, I think you'd have to acknowledge a slight change in the stepness of the graph in more recent times(not necessarily just Obama).
Point being, as long as it is traveling that steeply downward, no one can claim that it aint a problem.
Personally, I think the general trend down has its own roots in our broken system of govt also. I think the steepness is not changing in the way it is for no reason. We just keep doubling down on the stupidity that started the decline in the first place.
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ironsides
LSU Fan
new york, ny
Member since May 2006
4406 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:25 am to Decatur)
So can you explain the drop in actual employed people over the same time, and let us know if you think the drop in employed people will be good or bad for the economy, and how that hypothesis relates to the unemployment rate?
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ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Savannah, GA
Member since Oct 2008
23984 posts
Online
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:26 am to Decatur)
quote:
No fricking way that number is a real number So if the number goes down, it's a conspiracy to make the economy look better
The number is perfectly real. People that say it isn't are making the same error that the libs lauding the number are making.
The number is very important but it is only important in the context of other key numbers.
As I pointed out earlier, if worker confidence jumps because people that the economy is recovering, you can actually see a bump upwards of the rate even though employment is actually growing. It's happened many time in the past. As everyone floods the work market, they cause an increase in the "unemployment" rate.
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Decatur
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14891 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:32 am to ShortyRob)
quote:
Since the 90s? Hmm
I was looking at the BLS graph LINK
quote:
And regardless of where you decide to start calling it a downward trend, I think you'd have to acknowledge a slight change in the stepness of the graph in more recent times(not necessarily just Obama).
Yeah saw it. If I had to spitball here, I'd say roughly half is structural and half cyclical due to the worldwide recession. I don't think it is really that correlated to US economic policy.
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Mindenfan
LSU Fan
Minden
Member since Sep 2006
3118 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:33 am to JoBoo)
quote:
During the economic boom of the 1950's, the participation rate never got above 60%.
There was usually only one wage earner in the household back in the 50's. How often do you see that these days? My mother never had a paying job back then. In the 70's she was forced into the workforce just to make ends meet.
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TheHiddenFlask 
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16383 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:34 am to Progress)
Please remove underemployed and add back in discouraged workers and report that number.
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Decatur
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14891 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:38 am to Mindenfan)
quote:
During the economic boom of the 1950's, the participation rate never got above 60%.
It's possible we could be seeing a reversion back to that as boomers cycle out of the workforce. Maybe someone else could shed more light on this.
This post was edited on 12/7 at 11:40 am
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Lsut81
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2005
54912 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 11:46 am to Decatur)
quote:
So if the number goes down, it's a conspiracy to make the economy look better
Please explain this to me... Over the last 4 weeks, the weekly unemployment number average has been 408k a week. How the frick does the unemployment rate drop .2% when weekly claims are about 30-40k over the last years average?
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Willie Stroker
LSU Fan
Houston...ish
Member since Sep 2008
4321 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 12:02 pm to JoBoo)
quote:
Demographic changes are the key here.. Righties looking for a boogey man are ill informed.
A boogeyman? To make your point, you claimed the drop in labor participation rate was due to older folks dropping out. When proven wrong, you counter with an observation that the labor force participation rate is expected to continue dropping, along with some irrelevant babbling about how older folks will continue to represent a larger proportion of the population? THEY are not the reason for the drop we've seen. They may have a role in future drops, but not this one.
You completely ignored the point that was made - older folks are absolutely NOT dropping out disproportionately. In fact, they are doing the opposite of what you claimed. They are staying longer. This chart below proved you wrong.
Here's the number of people of working age by year:
There's no decline. There's no shortage of people to replace anyone dropping out. So we have older people working longer, no decline in working age replacements, yet we still have this labor force participation rate which drops off sharply after 2008:
The above labor participation rate drop-off can be better explained by this chart:
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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
2161 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 1:18 pm to Willie Stroker)
quote:
older folks are absolutely NOT dropping out disproportionately. In fact, they are doing the opposite of what you claimed. They are staying longer. This chart below proved you wrong.
They are working longer, but more and more people are dropping out because they are older and there are simply more of them. In fact your charts, especially the graph that shows medicaid growth, indicates that we have an aging population and that the number of retirees is accelerating. This is just the beginning.
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DeltaDoc
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
6192 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 1:36 pm to mmcgrath)
It is hilarious watching the lefties in this thread do the message board equivalent of sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling...."nanananananana.....can't hear you".
It is okay to admit that the employment situation in this country is bad at best...it doesn't mean you don't love the president or even like what is going on...it means that you are objective.
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pistolpete23 
USA Fan
In the present
Member since Dec 2007
3072 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 1:54 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
indicates that we have an aging population and that the number of retirees is accelerating.
with all these people retiring... Why are companies not hiring people to replace them? 
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Jbird 
Iowa Fan
Odramaville with EthanL
Member since Oct 2012
4950 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 1:56 pm to pistolpete23)
quote:
with all these people retiring... Why are companies not hiring people to replace them?
Because they are evil, rich, white, capitalistic, greedy, loophole using racist pigs, haven't you been paying attention? 
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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
6531 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 2:26 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
ore people are dropping out because they are older and there are simply more of them. In fact your charts, especially the graph that shows medicaid growth, indicates that we have an aging population
What does an aging population and retirees have to do with medicaid growth? I'll be waiting for your answer, should be a good one!
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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
6531 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 2:58 pm to Progress)
There are 118,000,000 households in the United States.
In an average month , the BLS "reaches and records" an average 50,000 households out of the approximately 60,00 on their Call/Visitation List for that month.
From the responses received from those 50,000 households out of 118,000,000 (0.0004237%, or 1 out of every 2,360 households in the country, they determine the unemployment rate down to one-tenth of one percent.
So 2,359 out of every 2,360 households in the U.S. are not in any way represented in the monthly BLS unemployment numbers.
Just suppose they called a DIFFERENT 50,000 households, just for shits and giggles. Does anyone really believe that the result would be the exact same as the other 50,000 down to the tenth of a percent? So maybe it's three-tenths of a percent higher or lower than the first group. What does that say about the validity, in either direction,m of the first 50k contacted that month (the "official" group).
Using this polling technique to determine an exact unemployment rate is an exercise in futility in terms of the real world. Why? Because there is no way to select a perfectly representative sample growth, especially when the architects of the sample selection process are civil servants.
At least numbers like the jobs number each month and the weekly first-time unemployment claims number are actual and measurable calculations based upon factual statistics reported by identifiable entities.
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Sheep
USA Fan
Straight Outta Acy
Member since Jun 2007
12982 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 2:58 pm to CP3LSU25)
quote:
I was hoping the unemployment rose a lot. These people have to understand what they voted for.
Wishing pain on your fellow Americans?
That's mighty patriotic of you.
I wonder how many people hoped soldiers would die when they didn't agree with the Afghan/Iraq wars?
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Willie Stroker
LSU Fan
Houston...ish
Member since Sep 2008
4321 posts
| re: US jobless rate falls to 7.7 percent, a 4 year low, NBC reports (Posted on 12/7/12 at 4:12 pm to mmcgrath)
quote:
They are working longer, but more and more people are dropping out because they are older and there are simply more of them. In fact your charts, especially the graph that shows medicaid growth, indicates that we have an aging population and that the number of retirees is accelerating. This is just the beginning.
You're doing it wrong. If the number of retirees was accelerating, what would that look like in labor force participation rates for persons over the age of 65? Are you suggesting that an accelerating number of retirees (people over the age of 65) should show an INCREASE in their share of the labor force?
What the first chart shows is that there is an INCREASE in the portion of working age people who continue to work. A 2% increase from 4 years ago. It's not the other way around. So if it is true that older folks are dropping out, then it is also true that younger workers are dropping out at a faster pace than the over 65 crowd. If that is also true, then it is completely UNTRUE that the reason for the dropping labor force participation rates overall is due to retirements. That would be like saying the reason that boxers develop dementia earlier in life is because they don't read when the larger causal relationship is the friggin head injuries. 
Also, Medicaid eligibility is tied to being poor, not being over 65 like Medicare.
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