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udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
22380 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

And the White House will spin the 7.8 number as a good thing when its actually a sign of a worsening economy.


You just KNOW Biden is going to trot this shite number out tomorrow in the debate. Ryan better be working on a 45 second answer as to how it is complete crap.






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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
8266 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

Biggest decrease from one month to another since 1983


Since 2011.

December, 2010, U-3 was 9.4%; January, 2011, rate was 9.1%.






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Roaad
LSU Fan
Bushrod Owns
Member since Aug 2006
52218 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

This completely invalidates any credibility the Dept of Labor may have had left. They are now the equivalent of a Soviet ministry reporting whatever the regime wants them to report.

Yeah. . .this is just surreal






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JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Oct 2012
7526 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

July jobs numbers are revised up from 141,000 to 181,000; August up from 96,000 to 142,000.


BOOM!


Don't we need at least ~250k to keep up with population growth?







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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
3195 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

How many fell out of the workforce.


I have heard about this number before, that people "give up" looking for work. Has there been any breakdown on who these people are and historical averages for these numbers. Could this simply be people who are sick, become unemployed, then die? Maybe wed mothers who leave work and go on unenployment, then stop working altogether when they have a kid?

Seriously, just want to know the details of this number that gets thrown around.






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Roaad
LSU Fan
Bushrod Owns
Member since Aug 2006
52218 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

I have heard about this number before, that people "give up" looking for work. Has there been any breakdown on who these people are and historical averages for these numbers
Research U-6 number.

Win at life.






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Navytiger74
LSU Fan
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2009
11943 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

I have heard about this number before, that people "give up" looking for work.


In this case I think it's a mixture of that and some seasonal adjustment. Not playing "falsely modest" when I say that NH and a lot of the guys in this thread can explain that better than I.






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FairhopeTider
Alabama Fan
Pt. Clear, Alabama
Member since May 2012
1972 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


Every analyst on CNBC, MSNBC, and FOX Business is saying they don't understand how it's possible for the unemployment to drop the way it did with the numbers/stats that were also released. They're pretty much saying that something is not right.

Cooking the mother fricking books






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JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Oct 2012
7526 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

U1:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This unemployment rate measures workers who are chronically unemployed. During business-cycle expansions, this rate captures structural unemployment. However, during lengthy business-cycle contractions, this rate is also likely to include a significant amount of cyclical unemployment. U1 tends to be relatively small, in the range of 1-2 percent.

U2:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is classified as job losers (workers who have been involuntarily fired or laid off from their jobs) and people who have completed temporary jobs. During business-cycle expansions, this rate is likely to capture some degree of frictional unemployment. However, during business-cycle contractions, this rate is most likely to consist of cyclical unemployment. U2 is larger than U1, but still remains substantially less than the official unemployment rate (U3).

U3:
This is the official unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

U4:
This is the official unemployment rate that is adjusted for discouraged workers. In other words, discouraged workers are treated just like other workers who are officially classified as unemployed, being included in both the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force. It is technically specified as the proportion of the civilian labor force (plus discouraged workers) that is either unemployed but actively seeking employment or discouraged workers. The addition of discouraged workers generally adds a few tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

U5:
This augments U4 by including marginally-attached workers to the unemployment rate calculation. Marginally attached workers are potential workers who have given up seeking employment for various reasons. One of these reasons is that the workers believe such effort would be futile, which places them in the discouraged worker category. Those who have other reasons for not seeking employment are placed in the broader marginally-attached workers category. The addition of marginally-attached workers adds a few more tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

U6:
This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.







Who is counted as unemployed?

Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Actively looking for work may consist of any of the following activities:

Contacting:
An employer directly or having a job interview
A public or private employment agency
Friends or relatives
A school or university employment center
Sending out resumes or filling out applications
Placing or answering advertisements
Checking union or professional registers
Some other means of active job search




Who is not in the labor force?

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces. The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.
LINK






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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
8266 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

114k jobs created in September

quote:
How many fell out of the workforce.



I have heard about this number before, that people "give up" looking for work.


The labor participation rate actually went up this time.

Again, even though the experts at CNBC have still yet to acknowledge it, the explanation for the 0.3% drop in U-3 with NO drop at all in U-6 is those 600,000 new part-time workers since last month.






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76096 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

July jobs numbers are revised up from 141,000 to 181,000; August up from 96,000 to 142,000.


BOOM!
You are ignorant.






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CollegeFBRules
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
19426 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

NHTIGER


Any idea how many jobs would have actually have to been added to the economy for this kind of drop?






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constant cough
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
33464 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


Imagine that it's been over 8% for Obama's entire presidency and then 30 some odd days before the election it's magically now below 7.8% what a joke.





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udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
22380 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

Don't we need at least ~250k to keep up with population growth?


shhhhhh






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CollegeFBRules
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
19426 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

600,000 new part-time workers since last month.


I've been away quite a lot lately. What sector did these jobs get added in?






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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
21101 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


The most surreal part of the news... Liberals are CELEBRATING 7.8% unemployment. If it were a Republican in office the talking point would be "Unemployment remains the worst since the Great Depression" or some such bullshart.





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crimsonsaint
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Nov 2009
30916 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


What is U-3 and U-6?





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mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
3195 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

JohnnyKilroy


Awesome. Thank you.






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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
21101 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:


Don't we need at least ~250k to keep up with population growth?
:attackwatch:






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RCDfan1950
LSU Fan
United States
Member since Feb 2007
9628 posts

re: 114k jobs created in September


quote:

This completely invalidates any credibility the Dept of Labor may have had left. They are now the equivalent of a Soviet ministry reporting whatever the regime wants them to report.


This.

What will be interesting will be to see if that Dept. still remains inclined to positive job numbers...if ROMNEY is elected. If they go negative toward Romney, then he ought to take a chainsaw to that Department. What, the government bureaucracy has now become openly Socialist?

Romney ought to take this to his bully pulpit, and INDICT the Labor Dept. for it's protection of the Obama regime.







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