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So who is the "can't miss" #1 pick??

Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:23 pm
Posted by tigamike
Member since Jun 2005
5223 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:23 pm
Got the top pick this year. Hate this position but gotta take somebody! Non PPR league. Leaning toward Arian Foster right now.
Posted by 12Buck
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2005
592 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:28 pm to
Foster or Rice... can't really go wrong there... Some people will say take a QB... That's how you know they are dumb.
Posted by Brodeur
Member since Feb 2012
4692 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:29 pm to
No such thing as a cant miss pick, but the safest pick is probably Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. If you want a RB, I would say Rice is a little more dependable than Foster.
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:37 pm to
Foster
Posted by Tigercat
Tacoma, WA
Member since Feb 2004
4519 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Foster or Rice... can't really go wrong there... Some people will say take a QB... That's how you know they are dumb.


Depends on the league, 8-12 team league, you should probably go with Rice or Foster. (Especially Rice in PPR.) If you are in a big league, 14-20 teams, the smarter pick is Rogers, Brady, or Brees. The larger the league, the better it is to go with the safe pick injury-wise, because in a big league an injury to your top pick likely kills your season.

I noticed there are a decent number of people doing team QB this year. In that case GB QB, NO QB, and NE QB (And maybe Det QB?) are no brainers over any RB in any league.

This post was edited on 8/14/12 at 1:55 pm
Posted by lsuhunt555
Teakwood Village Breh
Member since Nov 2008
39020 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

That's how you know they are dumb.


In all of my leagues it is 6 pts per td for everyone. You are going to tell me that 1200 yds and 12 tds is better than 4500 yds and 35 tds?
Posted by 12Buck
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2005
592 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

You are going to tell me that 1200 yds and 12 tds is better than 4500 yds and 35 tds?


yes I am. All my league play 6pt per passtd also and that applies to ALL QB's. The drop off from elite RB to the rest is much more significant than the drop off from #3 QB to #8. Phillip Rivers, Romo, Ryan, P. Manning will have plenty of 300 yard 2-3 Td games... On those weeks how much better can brees or Rodgers really be than him? It's a week to week game. Foster, Rice or McCoys ability to go for 150 total yards and 2 tds any given is not something many other Rb's possess on a weekly basis.
Posted by ellunchboxo
G-Town
Member since Feb 2009
19496 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

yes I am. All my league play 6pt per passtd also and that applies to ALL QB's. The drop off from elite RB to the rest is much more significant than the drop off from #3 QB to #8. Phillip Rivers, Romo, Ryan, P. Manning will have plenty of 300 yard 2-3 Td games... On those weeks how much better can brees or Rodgers really be than him? It's a week to week game. Foster, Rice or McCoys ability to go for 150 total yards and 2 tds any given is not something many other Rb's possess on a weekly basis.


+1

I have the first pick and I'm absolutely taking a RB
Posted by lsuhunt555
Teakwood Village Breh
Member since Nov 2008
39020 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 2:39 pm to
There are no more elite running backs. Its all time shares and a guessing game. It has turned into a QBs game. If I am No 1-3 I probably take a RB, any other spot in the first round I take a QB.
Posted by LSUChamp06
Kansas City
Member since Nov 2007
2860 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 2:50 pm to
Plus RB's have a much greater chance of getting hurt. If Aaron Rodgers is on the board, take him.
Posted by jojothetireguy
Live out in Coconut Grove
Member since Jan 2009
10619 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

yes I am. All my league play 6pt per passtd also and that applies to ALL QB's. The drop off from elite RB to the rest is much more significant than the drop off from #3 QB to #8. Phillip Rivers, Romo, Ryan, P. Manning will have plenty of 300 yard 2-3 Td games... On those weeks how much better can brees or Rodgers really be than him? It's a week to week game. Foster, Rice or McCoys ability to go for 150 total yards and 2 tds any given is not something many other Rb's possess on a weekly basis.


yep yep, the drop off is where the difference is.
Posted by hiltacular
NYC
Member since Jan 2011
20225 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:02 pm to
Foster or Rice should be taken #1 in just about any league setup there is.


I would much rather have them plus a #5-10 QB in the 6th round than the alternative.
Posted by PortCityTiger24
Member since Dec 2006
87455 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:03 pm to
You can win with average running backs. You can't win with an average QB anymore.
Posted by LSUTigKyl
Nashville
Member since May 2009
1934 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

You can win with average running backs. You can't win with an average QB anymore.


This is sort of true. The difference is there are legitimately 10 QBs that are above average. There is good, great, and elite. If you can have a Top 3 RB and a Great/Good QB, it is way better than having a Elite QB with a risky RB. This is most true for 10 team leagues.
Posted by Douglas Quaid
Mars
Member since Mar 2010
4121 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

yes I am. All my league play 6pt per passtd also and that applies to ALL QB's. The drop off from elite RB to the rest is much more significant than the drop off from #3 QB to #8. Phillip Rivers, Romo, Ryan, P. Manning will have plenty of 300 yard 2-3 Td games... On those weeks how much better can brees or Rodgers really be than him? It's a week to week game. Foster, Rice or McCoys ability to go for 150 total yards and 2 tds any given is not something many other Rb's possess on a weekly basis.


It never ceases to amaze me how few people understand this in FF leagues and are dead set on picking QB's first if TD passes are for 6 points.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74453 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:56 pm to
Would you rather

Eli Manning and Ray Rice


or

Aaron Rodgers and Ahmad Bradshaw
Posted by Tiger1242
Member since Jul 2011
33214 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

Foster or Rice should be taken #1 in just about any league setup there is.

I'm splitting hairs here but I think McCoy is going to be the best of those three.

IMO if Foster, Rice, or McCoy is on the board, you should take one of them. Which one is a matter of preference, I like McCoy because I like the Eagles as a team over Houston or Baltimore this year, other people like Rice/Foster, but take one of them
Posted by gjackx
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2007
16584 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

You can win with average running backs. You can't win with an average QB anymore.

THIS!

There will be backs that pop up throughout the year that you can pick up. There won't be an elite QB that pops up.

If you are getting 6 points per TD, it's not smart to assume RB first...
Posted by Tiger1242
Member since Jul 2011
33214 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

There won't be an elite QB that pops up.


Cam Newton says whats up
So does Tony Romo from a few years ago
Posted by gjackx
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2007
16584 posts
Posted on 8/14/12 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Cam Newton says whats up

Name another one........ever.
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