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More Draft Talk: Supply/Demand Probabilities.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 4/25/12 at 9:56 pm
I think it will be a stronger BPA emphasis than ever since the big holes are filled and no pick until #89. Looking at the supply/demand of positions in this class I believe the ones that will have the highest rated overall players pushed down to be possibilities are-
Defensive Tackle- If one is picked it could give the team a lot more leverage with Big Sed. Maybe as far as cutting him then.
My #89 wish list order is prolly:
Brandon Thompson Clemson
Alameda Ta'amu Washington
Mike Martin Michigan
Cornerback- I see a lot of comments about need here. Jabari just extended, PRob has two more years, and Patrick is just in his 2nd year. Yeah, after that but your first pick for a #4 corner doesn't seem like a push at all to me. That said, there could be more than one CB that they tag as a can't pass on player available.
Wish List Order:
Jamell Fleming Oklahoma
Casey Hayward Vanderbilt
Josh Norman Coastal Carolina
I like Brooks but he looks closer to a stretch than BPA at 89, great value in the 4th.
Wide Receiver- the top isn't great but the next tier towards #89 has a lot of potential. My wish list is skewed towards deep threat burner types. Jeffrey SC & Sanu Rutgers may be the highest rated overall that might be around but are big possession types which we have covered.
3 names I'd be excited about:
Chris Givens Wake Forest
A.J. Jenkins Illinois
Ryan Broyles Oklahoma
Defensive Tackle- If one is picked it could give the team a lot more leverage with Big Sed. Maybe as far as cutting him then.
My #89 wish list order is prolly:
Brandon Thompson Clemson
Alameda Ta'amu Washington
Mike Martin Michigan
Cornerback- I see a lot of comments about need here. Jabari just extended, PRob has two more years, and Patrick is just in his 2nd year. Yeah, after that but your first pick for a #4 corner doesn't seem like a push at all to me. That said, there could be more than one CB that they tag as a can't pass on player available.
Wish List Order:
Jamell Fleming Oklahoma
Casey Hayward Vanderbilt
Josh Norman Coastal Carolina
I like Brooks but he looks closer to a stretch than BPA at 89, great value in the 4th.
Wide Receiver- the top isn't great but the next tier towards #89 has a lot of potential. My wish list is skewed towards deep threat burner types. Jeffrey SC & Sanu Rutgers may be the highest rated overall that might be around but are big possession types which we have covered.
3 names I'd be excited about:
Chris Givens Wake Forest
A.J. Jenkins Illinois
Ryan Broyles Oklahoma
7
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:03 pm to blueslover
Why do you think taking a CB wouldn't be a push?
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:06 pm to blueslover
DT and CB. I have no problem with either of these. If Bruce Irvin happens to be there I'd like to pick him up. Otherwise I'd take Jamell Fleming, Brandon Thompson, Casey Hayward, Mike Martin, or Ron Brooks. In that order.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:14 pm to Hoodoo Man
quote:
Why do you think taking a CB wouldn't be a push?
by push I meant because of need. As said, we have 3 under contract that I like for a few years. So you're basically adding a #4 CB. Not a big need. If BPA no prob tho.
Whereas at DT a #89 might get significant reps. It might even affect what the team does with Ellis.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:22 pm to blueslover
If we go after DT's, I'd really like to see some pass rush abilities.
God knows our DL hasn't been getting any rush in a long time.
So, Mike Martin looks good.
What do you think about Billy Winn and Derek Wolfe?
God knows our DL hasn't been getting any rush in a long time.
So, Mike Martin looks good.
What do you think about Billy Winn and Derek Wolfe?
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:27 pm to Hoodoo Man
Wolfe > Martin if you want someone to get after the QB.
Personally, if we draft a DT that is expected to contribute, I would tell Ellis to either drop from $5.8m base salary to under $2.5m or hit the road. If we let him go, I'd try to get Rogers or Franklin to come back for another year, depending on what kind of DT we draft.
Personally, if we draft a DT that is expected to contribute, I would tell Ellis to either drop from $5.8m base salary to under $2.5m or hit the road. If we let him go, I'd try to get Rogers or Franklin to come back for another year, depending on what kind of DT we draft.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:29 pm to THRILLHO
Jenkins is easily my favorite player on that list. Dude looks like Lance Moore with speed. Makes some ridiculous catches. I still prefer Wolfe to Martin at DT.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:30 pm to blueslover
I wouldn't mind seeing Casey Hayward in a Saints uniform. He's got great instincts on the ball and some solid coverage ability. He is the reason Vandy had a top 20 defense. Do you really see him lasting this far though? I've seen him projected as a second rounder.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:38 pm to Hoodoo Man
In regard to value Winn looks okay at #89 but not a big value to me. 4th Rd he looks a lot better. Play wise looks like a 3-4 DE to me. Too much like Cameron Jordan for my taste.
Like the hustle and game of Wolfe but definitely later 4th maybe even 5th Rd. He doesn't look like a DT to me. Dunno if he can make it there in the NFL. Then if to DE he looks a lot better in a 3-4 also.
I don't see great fits. But I've come to fully trust the drafting acumen of the FO in the Payton era. If they did then I'm sure they would have a plan.
For pass rush at #89 and beyond you're only gonna get guys that have some issue(s)- size, character, scheme fit, injuries, little experience, etc
Like the hustle and game of Wolfe but definitely later 4th maybe even 5th Rd. He doesn't look like a DT to me. Dunno if he can make it there in the NFL. Then if to DE he looks a lot better in a 3-4 also.
I don't see great fits. But I've come to fully trust the drafting acumen of the FO in the Payton era. If they did then I'm sure they would have a plan.
For pass rush at #89 and beyond you're only gonna get guys that have some issue(s)- size, character, scheme fit, injuries, little experience, etc
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:39 pm to Athanatos
Take Ladarius! Like I said earlier today, no 4th corner or backup D lineman is going to contribute as much or make a bigger difference in games immediately. Let's get our version of Hernandez and create even more mismatches.
...if available of course
...if available of course
This post was edited on 4/25/12 at 10:43 pm
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:41 pm to blueslover
quote:
For pass rush at #89 and beyond you're only gonna get guys that have some issue(s)- size, character, scheme fit, injuries, little experience, etc
We already have a size (Juneyah) and injury (Romeus) guy at the position that we're still developing, which is why I want to avoid DE until next season unless they see something most others don't. You pretty much have to find a LT and RDE in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Posted on 4/25/12 at 10:46 pm to Athanatos
quote:
Do you really see him (Hayward) lasting this far though?
Not likely but enough of a possibility to put on a wish list. All these players are definitely rated higher than #89 in my book. My theory that it will be BPA more than ever causes me to look at which players might be most likely to slip down a little further than their overall rating. There's a bunch of CBs rated in this second tier is why I included them.
Posted on 4/26/12 at 7:26 am to blueslover
quote:
Supply/Demand Probabilities.
Just get a big plinko-esque game board and drop the game piece with the invisible hand.
Posted on 4/26/12 at 10:21 am to Jumbeauxlaya
It's always been BPA at a position of need early in the draft then they go BPA for the late picks. So without the early picks, it'll truly be a BPA throughout.
My question is, are there any CB/S hybrids, ala Malcolm Jenkins, that would be a good fit at #89? To me, that's the biggest need. Saints need a free with range so that they can move Jenkins to SS. I haven't seen enough of IAQ to know if he's a liability in coverage.
People keep mentioning Ladarius Green, who I think would be a great fit, but by adding him, you are changing the offensive philosophy. You're now going to a two TE set. Without Payton to diagram and diagnose, I'm not sure we want to mess with a change in the off philosophy. Having said that, this could be Green's learning year and then we go to more two TE sets next year when Payton is back. That could be a great plan. He'd have a learning year similiar to the way Jimmy did.
My question is, are there any CB/S hybrids, ala Malcolm Jenkins, that would be a good fit at #89? To me, that's the biggest need. Saints need a free with range so that they can move Jenkins to SS. I haven't seen enough of IAQ to know if he's a liability in coverage.
People keep mentioning Ladarius Green, who I think would be a great fit, but by adding him, you are changing the offensive philosophy. You're now going to a two TE set. Without Payton to diagram and diagnose, I'm not sure we want to mess with a change in the off philosophy. Having said that, this could be Green's learning year and then we go to more two TE sets next year when Payton is back. That could be a great plan. He'd have a learning year similiar to the way Jimmy did.
Posted on 4/26/12 at 10:29 am to KindOfABigDeal
someone mentioned Trumaine Johnson as a CB/S tweener. I like him but think he'll be gone by 89. More likely available is George Iloka Boise St. Had some threads with long looks at him a while back. He looks like he could be a hybrid just to cover the Grahams and Gronks that are taking over TE. At #89 I'd be okay with him but don't see him as a screaming value. Dunno if he could last to Rd 4 but there I would be excited to get him. Look him up.
I think there will be a slight run on TEs in this draft. The NFL is copycat. After Graham & Gronk getting a big threat TE will be all the rage. Egnew might be the best available by 89.
I think there will be a slight run on TEs in this draft. The NFL is copycat. After Graham & Gronk getting a big threat TE will be all the rage. Egnew might be the best available by 89.
Posted on 4/26/12 at 10:41 am to blueslover
You think Hayward is around at 89?
I think he goes in the 2nd
I think he goes in the 2nd
Posted on 4/26/12 at 10:42 am to blueslover
Yeah, I've seen you mention Iloka previously. I need to check him out.
My gut tells me we take more defensive players with Payton not being there this year to develop the off guys. Plus, without Payton in the room lobbying for a pick and Spags there to lobby, I think we take more on that side. I could be wrong, but that's my gut. Plus, its pretty clear which side can really use the help!
My gut tells me we take more defensive players with Payton not being there this year to develop the off guys. Plus, without Payton in the room lobbying for a pick and Spags there to lobby, I think we take more on that side. I could be wrong, but that's my gut. Plus, its pretty clear which side can really use the help!
Posted on 4/26/12 at 10:59 am to KindOfABigDeal
Sure would be helpful if we knew which players were likely to be suspended and for how long BEFORE the draft.
Posted on 4/26/12 at 11:02 am to SaintLSUnAtl
quote:
You think Hayward is around at 89?
I think he goes in the 2nd
read the follow up post, wish list not expected available list. Not so far fetched to be shocking tho. Say 10-15% probability of availability
Posted on 4/26/12 at 11:14 am to blueslover
Ugh, no support for my economics jokes.
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