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CptBengal 
USA Fan
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
30924 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 6:32 pm to LSUtigersarefun)
quote:
the resulting regulations have no stasticial impact on the regulations.
da frick? Do you know what the solution of having a covariate matrix equal to your response matrix in multivariate work...because that's what you're asking...and any stats guy would know it's an absurd question.
quote:
I miss understood your question I though you were asking what stats I studied.
what did you study? like I said, unless you wrote the theory...you aren;t that important or well known.
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LSUtigersarefun 
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2009
9602 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 6:39 pm to CptBengal)
quote:
and you do stats? lulz. What software do you use. There is no hard bifurcated reality here, the solution is a continuum from multiple inputs, dealing with multiple stressors, giving variable output. How you can claim such a dichotomous analysis is absurd...especially for someone who "knows stat really well".
Spss, esri, but mostly my own sequel server databases.
I know my point is that regulating only one part of the equation isn't going to solve the equation.
I am saying that the law of diminishing marginal returns, means that each time you decrease the catch the impact to the total population isn't going to decrease at a steady rate as a population, because fish populations come closer to reaching homeostasis.
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LSUtigersarefun
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2009
9602 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 6:41 pm to CptBengal)
quote:
what did you study? like I said, unless you wrote the theory...you aren;t that important or well known.
Pretty well known, I have created some patented statistical analysis software for a specific situation.
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LSUtigersarefun
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2009
9602 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 6:51 pm to CptBengal)
Cpt enjoyed the conversation(no sarcasm) and I welcome to see some more data so I can attempt to get a better idea of the overall trends.
Your job seems awesome btw.
Eta: My models are all results based, when I mAke models for customers, they in large don't care about my methodology, they only know my reputation for making dam fine predictive models that come true, and that the one I make for them works. The inputs I use are not as important as the results, and I always weight my variables. One customer said to me "I don't care if you use a psychic if your models continue to be as good as they have been, I will continue to buy them."
This post was edited on 4/5 at 7:12 pm
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HeadBusta4LSU
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2007
8994 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 6:59 pm to CptBengal)
quote:
Do you know what the solution of having a covariate matrix equal to your response matrix in multivariate work..
you and your big words
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LSUtigersarefun
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2009
9602 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 7:36 pm to HeadBusta4LSU)
quote:
quote: Do you know what the solution of having a covariate matrix equal to your response matrix in multivariate work..
He is saying that I am guilty of over using ceteris paribus(studying only one variable while holding everything else constant) in a situation where that doesn't work because there are many variables that go into the fisheries decision matrix.
My response is that through the regulations that the government has implemented they have decided that the most important variable in the fisheries is fishermen, and that by regulating fishermen they can have a singifant impact on the total population of the fisheries.
He then says that well every time you catch a fish you take one out of the population, while that is true, my response is that the law of diminishing marginal returns says that as a population gets closer to homeostasis(aka the natural sustainable population) each reduction matters less and less. What my argument is that the other variables impacting the population of snapper have risen to a point where further reduction in the season will have little to no stasticial effect on the overall population.
His statistics he has created have not shown either an increase or decrease in larva over time, which he infers to the fact that the controls are working perfectly. I am arguing that reductions in the fish caught are not working, and have such little impact on the overall population that they are negligible, and his own research can not prove that a reduction in season has an impact on the population. He counters with the argument that there are more fishermen that are using better tools so they are taking out more, so the controls are working.
I say that what we should do is test this hypothesis, by increasing the season on a one year trial basis, if it has an impact on the population of larva then we know how to remedy the situation, with a smaller season and a reduction in catch.
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HeadBusta4LSU
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2007
8994 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 8:48 pm to LSUtigersarefun)
I like how they dismiss anything fisherman say as a "fish story"
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Scrowe 
New Orleans Saints Fan
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2010
700 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/5/12 at 11:56 pm to HeadBusta4LSU)
quote:
I like how they dismiss anything fisherman say as a "fish story"
Also the fact that they "know" there are more fisherman now whenever charters have dropped drastically, boats are being sold left and right, and camps are being sold left and right. It's like a graveyard on the water compared to what it was in years past.
I have a question, spawning snapper just spray eggs and semen everywhere and do not make an egg mass like say a trigger fish does, correct? So as these eggs are being taken by currents, wouldn't they disperse and there wouldn't be a significant rise in concentration over the huge volume that is the Gulf of Mexico? Also where are these numbers being compiled, middle of hell nowhere or are they testing at say a rig during spawn to see if the numbers are rising at the actual habitat versus just dispersed over the entire volume of the Gulf of Mexico.
quote:
His statistics he has created have not shown either an increase or decrease in larva over time, which he infers to the fact that the controls are working perfectly. I am arguing that reductions in the fish caught are not working, and have such little impact on the overall population that they are negligible, and his own research can not prove that a reduction in season has an impact on the population. He counters with the argument that there are more fishermen that are using better tools so they are taking out more, so the controls are working.
What he doesn't tell you is that they go off an overall poundage of harvest that they then use an average weight of fish caught to come up with the season. The average weight of fish caught has increased significantly over the years causing the timeframe of the season to decrease.
Then there is the factor of increased habitat that is seemingly being said to provide no significance.
quote:
the argument is on complex habitat structure necessary for larval survival and juvenile settlement. The lack of COMPLEX structure at these artificial reefs has been shown to aggregate larger fish and decreases settlement of juveniles. Providing increased fishing pressure, while simultaneously decreasing the inclusion of younger cohorts into the breeding stock.
I don't know where they gather their data from, but they are flourishing and it doesn't take graduating from kindergarten to see that. All we see are the rigs becoming more and more populated with snapper but those fish must magically hatch as adults I guess.
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MoreOrLes
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2008
14994 posts
 Online
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/6/12 at 12:41 am to Scrowe)
but but but the models
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LaBornNRaised
New Orleans Saints Fan
The Datty's are Fixed!
Member since Feb 2011
7890 posts
| re: Louisiana Snapper Season - State versus Federal Govt. (Posted on 4/6/12 at 12:59 am to Scrowe)
quote:
All we see are the rigs becoming more and more populated
The last 2 seasons specifically have been out of control with the amount of Red Snapper we have been seeing. It doesn't take a fool to see that the fish have thrived with the over regulation and now that should be brought down to more feasible level for today's circumstances.
frick a 45 day season. I'll say it, its bull shite.
This post was edited on 4/6 at 1:01 am
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