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Posted on 2/16/12 at 9:24 pm to MoreOrLes
quote:Yep.
My feeling is that the real estate correction is no where near finished. it is my opinion that large banks are carrying a sea of distressed property. Both in.the residential, and as I said, commercial distressed property will become more prevalent for years to come.
May be close enough to the bottom though so at least parties can reasonably assess choices. e.g., I'd consider buying in this market. Would not have said that even 6 mos ago. But the hit some sellers will have to absorb is significant. 25% or more down from 2007 prices on fairly expensive places.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 11:05 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on the MB, answered by the poliboard. I think two people in this thread actually post here. 
This post was edited on 2/16/12 at 11:05 pm
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:22 am to kfizzle85
quote:pigeonholer!
Posted on the MB, answered by the poliboard. I think two people in this thread actually post here.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:32 am to NC_Tigah
TWSS. 
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:32 am to kfizzle85
Well, hell, as long as we're slipping Poli Talk topics into discussions here tonight, what does the Money Talk board think of this latest release, " January 2012 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report: Frozen Up Foreclosure Process Begins to Thaw," from RealtyTrac.com?
Expecting a "pattern of increasing" is kind of vague. Do y'all think we're talking going back up to 230k or 240k per month (up from about 211k in January), or are we talking about something higher like we saw in 2009 & 2010?
quote:
“Although overall foreclosure activity was down from a year ago for the 16th straight month in January, we continue to see signs on a local and regional level that the frozen-up foreclosure process is beginning to thaw,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts.
“We expect the pattern of increasing foreclosures to continue in the coming months, especially given the finalized mortgage and foreclosure settlement reached in early February between 49 state attorneys general and five of the nation’s largest lenders,” Moore continued.
Expecting a "pattern of increasing" is kind of vague. Do y'all think we're talking going back up to 230k or 240k per month (up from about 211k in January), or are we talking about something higher like we saw in 2009 & 2010?
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:40 am to Doc Fenton
Bro we've had like 5 threads about housing markets recovering and the economy taking off just in the last week. Clearly we're about to go berserker here as I'm not sure that's happened since I started posting here in earnest in mid 2007. Nevermind the whole price/volume thing, that's not an important distinction apparently.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:44 am to kfizzle85
quote:
Clearly we're about to go berserker here
:tightens seat belt:
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:58 am to Doc Fenton
quote:if it turns out to be the latter, I'll be very disappointed. Spending next week looking at properties. The Atlantic seaboard is approaching bottom IMO.
Expecting a "pattern of increasing" is kind of vague. Do y'all think we're talking going back up to 230k or 240k per month (up from about 211k in January), or are we talking about something higher like we saw in 2009 & 2010?
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:23 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
The Atlantic seaboard is approaching bottom IMO.
Maybe, maybe not. All I know is ATL was still in the top 3 in CRE delinquencies and has extremely high commercial vacancy rates. The B of A tower was recently foreclosed on (is/was the third highest office tower outside of NY/Chicago), and will likely sell for less than 50% of its last sales price and would still need extensive renovations, believe the vacancy rate in it is north of 40%. Residential, I can point to very small pockets where appreciation occurred last year, but by and large many areas are likely f*cked with very limited upside. With that said, many new buyers are getting great deals on anything from top notch condos being sold at 50% off to buying into areas they are getting very good value on nice homes, good for them, it will help them generate future wealth by reducing housing costs longer term.
Those making broad sweeping statements about the South being insulated, spend some time in metro ATL and FL, nothing insulated on a RE or jobs front.
With that said, Athens might get a new CAT plant, yeah. New nuclear reactors will be built employing many in high wage positions compared to service economy, yay. I believe the economy will continue to inch along in a positive direction this year, but with the typical setbacks experienced the last two years. Then there is that continuing BB tax on retirees being told to suck it on interest rates to bail out banks and others, had to get my poli on for a moment.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 12:46 pm to tirebiter
quote:Right, I was referring to Residential. Commercial holdings in the area are a different matter.
Residential, I can point to very small pockets where appreciation occurred last year, but by and large many areas are likely f*cked with very limited upside. With that said, many new buyers are getting great deals on anything from top notch condos being sold at 50% off to buying into areas they are getting very good value on nice homes, good for them
Posted on 2/17/12 at 2:06 pm to LSU Piston
I don't understand why people say double dip when we never left the first recession...
Media has a good stranglehold on our thinking
I am an Austrian economist and am under the impression that we will have a severe relapse with the Dow taking another 6,000 point drop in the near future. All it takes is one more downgrade of US credit quality to set off a firestorm. If you have any sizable portfolio, you need to urgently allocate at a bare minimum 10-15% of it to precious metals through physical and funds.
Greece will default on March 20 when they miss their interest payment and they will leave the EU.
Feb 29th is a key date as well as the ECB will print a hot new batch of $500 Bn EUR to support their failing bank system which will bring the ECB balance sheet up to par with the Federal Reserve's 3 Trillion.
We are beyond return to the days of 3% unemployment and beyond the days of returning to a sound monetary and fiscal policy as conservative estimates of our future debt liabilities mount to more than $100 Trillion. Buy physical bullion and diversify yourself internationally b/c Helicopter Ben is committed to ZIRP which will fail ultimately to the chagrin of all dow bulls.
Media has a good stranglehold on our thinking
I am an Austrian economist and am under the impression that we will have a severe relapse with the Dow taking another 6,000 point drop in the near future. All it takes is one more downgrade of US credit quality to set off a firestorm. If you have any sizable portfolio, you need to urgently allocate at a bare minimum 10-15% of it to precious metals through physical and funds.
Greece will default on March 20 when they miss their interest payment and they will leave the EU.
Feb 29th is a key date as well as the ECB will print a hot new batch of $500 Bn EUR to support their failing bank system which will bring the ECB balance sheet up to par with the Federal Reserve's 3 Trillion.
We are beyond return to the days of 3% unemployment and beyond the days of returning to a sound monetary and fiscal policy as conservative estimates of our future debt liabilities mount to more than $100 Trillion. Buy physical bullion and diversify yourself internationally b/c Helicopter Ben is committed to ZIRP which will fail ultimately to the chagrin of all dow bulls.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 2:27 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
No. It would take an unpredictable external event to cause a double-dip recession IMO.
A deep European recession and a war with Iran are both predictable. Not saying they are inevitable but they should not be a big surprise either.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 2:37 pm to tirebiter
I'm in Atlanta. The housing market won't "recover" because it was massively inflated. If anything, I think it's back to normal.
Posted on 2/17/12 at 2:44 pm to ich1baN
Posted on 2/17/12 at 2:44 pm to ich1baN
quote:
the Dow taking another 6,000 point drop in the near future.
Baylor, is that you?? You didn't lose enough money last time?
Posted on 2/18/12 at 1:16 am to LSU Piston
Improving? Yes.
---- fast enough? Probably not.
Double-dip recession? No.
Worried about federal debt? Of course. This will only hurt us in the long run.
Bottom line: it is improving but unemployment levels will bottom out at around 7% and remain there for probably 10 years. Businesses have learned to do more with less and I don't see them hiring in droves for a very long time.
---- fast enough? Probably not.
Double-dip recession? No.
Worried about federal debt? Of course. This will only hurt us in the long run.
Bottom line: it is improving but unemployment levels will bottom out at around 7% and remain there for probably 10 years. Businesses have learned to do more with less and I don't see them hiring in droves for a very long time.
This post was edited on 2/18/12 at 1:18 am
Posted on 2/18/12 at 2:41 am to JPLSU1981
Don't know who Baylor is.
And for the record I made about 7 mil on the first crash, shorting the dow and buying low.
Yup 6000 points, that's what I said. Go put your head back in the sand now.
And for the record I made about 7 mil on the first crash, shorting the dow and buying low.
Yup 6000 points, that's what I said. Go put your head back in the sand now.
Posted on 2/18/12 at 3:44 am to ich1baN
quote:
And for the record I made about 7 mil on the first crash, shorting the dow and buying low.
Yup 6000 points, that's what I said. Go put your head back in the sand now.
Wait what, you made 7 million in the market?
Posted on 2/18/12 at 8:37 am to ich1baN
quote:
the Dow taking another 6,000 point drop in the near future.
quote:
Yup 6000 points, that's what I said.
We shall see.
Can we go ahead and define "near future" for clarity? 6-12 months? 1-3 years?
This post was edited on 2/18/12 at 8:44 am
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