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LSU at Bama Line dropped to 3.5
Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:51 pm
Started at 6.5 and is now at 3.5....it was 4.5 this morning...I suspect this line will drop to 1 or 2 by game time....
LINK
LINK
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Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:51 pm to LagdonCG
Should be no-line.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:54 pm to LagdonCG
I feel that the line should be right about Alabama -1.5. I think on a neutral field LSU is a 1.5 point favorite and they say home field is worth 3 points. That said, lines aren't meant to be a predictor, they're meant to get money in the pockets of sportsbooks.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:55 pm to bigpapamac
No way line gets below 3.
Prolly won't get lower than 3.5
Prolly won't get lower than 3.5
Posted on 10/28/11 at 4:56 pm to AlejandroInHouston
I agree at game time it'll be back around -4.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:26 pm to bigpapamac
Bama is viewed as being the better team, on a national scale of course. Saban is known as a defensive genius and is considered to be better than Miles. I'm not saying if any of this is true or not but it often is the view.
That said, of course they are favored at home, when was the last time they lost there? Vegas simply sets the line to make money, no more or no less. It is not a true indication of what they think will really happen in the game.
That said, of course they are favored at home, when was the last time they lost there? Vegas simply sets the line to make money, no more or no less. It is not a true indication of what they think will really happen in the game.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:29 pm to ellis1975
quote:
Bama is viewed as being the better team, on a national scale of course
really? you sure about that? then why do the two human polls have LSU ranked above them?
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:42 pm to ellis1975
How is Alabama viewed as better when LSU is an overwhelming #1 in human polls?
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:44 pm to ellis1975
quote:
That said, of course they are favored at home, when was the last time they lost there? Vegas simply sets the line to make money, no more or no less. It is not a true indication of what they think will really happen in the game.
Last year against Auburn !!
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:53 pm to midnight1961
quote:Not to mention 4 of the last 5 times we played them there, and 10 of the last 15. Home field advantage??
That said, of course they are favored at home, when was the last time they lost there? Vegas simply sets the line to make money, no more or no less. It is not a true indication of what they think will really happen in the game.
Last year against Auburn !!
Posted on 10/28/11 at 5:55 pm to bigpapamac
For the oddsmakers, Bama's home field is worth four points in their computations.
This means that in recent weeks, Bama has been viewed as being about two points better than the Tigers on a neutral field.
The job of the oddsmakers is to split the betting public in half on a game. You bet $110 to win $100. The winners then collect $100, but the losers lose $110. The books keep the 10% vig. That's why the line moves.
If Bama started as a 6 point favorite; and there is a disproportionate amount of action on LSU, the books move the line down to encourage bets on Bama.
Going from a 6 point favorite to a 3.5 point favorite, if that is indeed true, means a helluva lot of money has been bet on the Tigers.
This means that in recent weeks, Bama has been viewed as being about two points better than the Tigers on a neutral field.
The job of the oddsmakers is to split the betting public in half on a game. You bet $110 to win $100. The winners then collect $100, but the losers lose $110. The books keep the 10% vig. That's why the line moves.
If Bama started as a 6 point favorite; and there is a disproportionate amount of action on LSU, the books move the line down to encourage bets on Bama.
Going from a 6 point favorite to a 3.5 point favorite, if that is indeed true, means a helluva lot of money has been bet on the Tigers.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 6:01 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
The job of the oddsmakers is to split the betting public in half on a game. You bet $110 to win $100. The winners then collect $100, but the losers lose $110. The books keep the 10% vig. That's why the line moves.
Traditionally this has been true but most books today are comfortable taking a side.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 6:05 pm to MidCityTiger
No shite
Posted on 10/28/11 at 6:20 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
lines aren't meant to be a predictor, they're meant to get money in the pockets of sportsbooks.
They aren't meant to be a predictor, but they are very good predictors. Much better ones than polls, anyway. When you vote in a poll you have nothing to lose if you're wrong.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 6:56 pm to ellis1975
quote:
Bama is viewed as being the better team, on a national scale of course
If that were true, wouldn't Bama be #1 instead of LSU?
Posted on 10/28/11 at 7:09 pm to Lonnie4LSU
The line is moving as a result of where the money is being bet. So if the line is getting smaller for Bama, what does that tell you about where the money is going?
Posted on 10/28/11 at 7:20 pm to LagdonCG
frick the line....LSU has doubled the line vs Florida, Tenn, and Auburn not to mention Oregon and WV...it is early for prediction but Tigahs 27 Tide 16
Posted on 10/28/11 at 7:49 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
No shite
You'd be amazed at how many people don't grasp this general concept.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 9:30 pm to xavierTIGER
I'll be jumping all over LSU as an underdog. They will win outright.
Posted on 10/28/11 at 9:36 pm to BarcelonaLSU
quote:
frick the line....LSU has doubled the line vs Florida, Tenn, and Auburn not to mention Oregon and WV...it is early for prediction but Tigahs 27 Tide 16
16? You predicting a safety?
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