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Message
LSU's Talent Advantage Evaporates Beginning This Saturday
Posted on 10/3/11 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 10/3/11 at 1:58 pm
The next four games will be determined by coaching and execution. We won't be able to simply rely upon some overwhelming talent advantage, expecially along the lines.
While I recognize that we have already played three ranked opponents to date, we have enjoyed a significant talent advantage over each. This is confirmed by analysis of the Rivals recruiting rankings, which are a meaningful proxy for a team's overall depth, strength, and speed. (As I have noted several times before, the Rivals rankings have been statistically validated in numerous long-term studies. There is a statistically significant and incontrovertible correlation between recruiting rankings and on-field performance.)
LSU has recruited effectively over the last five years. Its average five year class ranking, rounded to the nearest integer, is six (6). In comparison, the average five year class rankings of our first three ranked opponents have been pedestrian:
Oregon: 17
MSU: 38
WVU: 33
The delta between our average class rating and that of our adversaries represents a significant on-field disparity in size, athleticism, and depth. Only Oregon approached our echelon of talent, and most of their higher class rankings were attributable to coveted skill position players, rather than linemen.
By contrast, here are the five year average class rankings for our upcoming four opponents:
Florida: 6
Tennessee: 14 (even with one extreme outlier year where their class was ranked 35 - the remainder of their classes were Top 15 or Top 10)
Auburn: 11
Alabama: 3 (and over the last four years, an astounding 1.4 average classs ranking)
Using Rivals as our guide, all four of our next opponents will be more talented than any foe we have encountered thus far. This is no revelation. Rather, it is merely empirical evidence which supports the widely-held belief that the SEC is ascendent. More importantly, this evidence offers insight into WHY the SEC dominates the college football landscape. As the SEC faithful preach on a daily basis, the conference simply has bigger, better, faster players, especially in the trenches.
Applied to LSU, the average recruiting rankings help to explain why we have eviscerated out of conference challengers, but we haven't appeared in the SEC championship game since 2007. Against intersectional competition, we can deploy our talent advantage to great effect in a fairly straightforward manner. Namely, we can line up and dominate both sides of the line irrespective of scheme. The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB. On the other hand, to defeat marquee SEC nemeses, talent alone isn't sufficient. LSU must execute consistently, apply proper technique, craft creative gameplans, avoid inattentiveness, limit penalties, and play error free football. We've obviously shown the capacity to do just that, but not over the course of an entire SEC season. In each of our most recent years, we have suffered breakdowns in playcalling or player execution or game management in at least one SEC contest. The challenge for this incredibly gifted set of Tigers and their coaches is to establish consistent excellence over the next four games. If we don't, we'll once more finish as a glamorous runner-up in the SEC West. However, if we do, we have an opportunity to accomplish something not witnessed in Baton Rouge for almost half a century: the elusive undefeated season.
While I recognize that we have already played three ranked opponents to date, we have enjoyed a significant talent advantage over each. This is confirmed by analysis of the Rivals recruiting rankings, which are a meaningful proxy for a team's overall depth, strength, and speed. (As I have noted several times before, the Rivals rankings have been statistically validated in numerous long-term studies. There is a statistically significant and incontrovertible correlation between recruiting rankings and on-field performance.)
LSU has recruited effectively over the last five years. Its average five year class ranking, rounded to the nearest integer, is six (6). In comparison, the average five year class rankings of our first three ranked opponents have been pedestrian:
Oregon: 17
MSU: 38
WVU: 33
The delta between our average class rating and that of our adversaries represents a significant on-field disparity in size, athleticism, and depth. Only Oregon approached our echelon of talent, and most of their higher class rankings were attributable to coveted skill position players, rather than linemen.
By contrast, here are the five year average class rankings for our upcoming four opponents:
Florida: 6
Tennessee: 14 (even with one extreme outlier year where their class was ranked 35 - the remainder of their classes were Top 15 or Top 10)
Auburn: 11
Alabama: 3 (and over the last four years, an astounding 1.4 average classs ranking)
Using Rivals as our guide, all four of our next opponents will be more talented than any foe we have encountered thus far. This is no revelation. Rather, it is merely empirical evidence which supports the widely-held belief that the SEC is ascendent. More importantly, this evidence offers insight into WHY the SEC dominates the college football landscape. As the SEC faithful preach on a daily basis, the conference simply has bigger, better, faster players, especially in the trenches.
Applied to LSU, the average recruiting rankings help to explain why we have eviscerated out of conference challengers, but we haven't appeared in the SEC championship game since 2007. Against intersectional competition, we can deploy our talent advantage to great effect in a fairly straightforward manner. Namely, we can line up and dominate both sides of the line irrespective of scheme. The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB. On the other hand, to defeat marquee SEC nemeses, talent alone isn't sufficient. LSU must execute consistently, apply proper technique, craft creative gameplans, avoid inattentiveness, limit penalties, and play error free football. We've obviously shown the capacity to do just that, but not over the course of an entire SEC season. In each of our most recent years, we have suffered breakdowns in playcalling or player execution or game management in at least one SEC contest. The challenge for this incredibly gifted set of Tigers and their coaches is to establish consistent excellence over the next four games. If we don't, we'll once more finish as a glamorous runner-up in the SEC West. However, if we do, we have an opportunity to accomplish something not witnessed in Baton Rouge for almost half a century: the elusive undefeated season.
This post was edited on 10/3/11 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:04 pm to The312
quote:
LSU's Talent Advantage Evaporates Beginning This Saturday
But the coaching advantage never will.
This post was edited on 10/3/11 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:21 pm to The312
...I disagree.
LSU has played 3 top 25 opponents on the road and two of those were in hostile environments.
Two of those opponents will probably be playing in BCS bowls (WVU and Oregon).
That's not to take away from the next 3 games. I expect them to be competitive. I also expect LSU to win as does Vegas.
LSU has played 3 top 25 opponents on the road and two of those were in hostile environments.
Two of those opponents will probably be playing in BCS bowls (WVU and Oregon).
That's not to take away from the next 3 games. I expect them to be competitive. I also expect LSU to win as does Vegas.
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:32 pm to The312
There is obvously good information here and I definately know the next 4 games for LSU are huge, but I'm thinking the talent level at LSU is commensurate with all those teams you speak of.
As in any game, it all comes down to execution and not making mistakes or giving up the football.
Your points are well made and taken.
Thanks
As in any game, it all comes down to execution and not making mistakes or giving up the football.
Your points are well made and taken.
Thanks
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:36 pm to The312
quote:
The delta between our average class rating and that of our adversaries represents a significant on-field disparity in size, athleticism, and depth. Only Oregon approached our echelon of talent, and most of their higher class rankings were attributable to coveted skill position players, rather than linemen.
I Kige this.
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:42 pm to The312
quote:
Applied to LSU, the average recruiting rankings help to explain why we have eviscerated out of conference challengers
Posted on 10/3/11 at 2:56 pm to The312
quote:
The next four games will be determined by coaching and execution.
quote:
We won't be able to simply rely upon some overwhelming talent advantage, expecially along the lines.
quote:
LSU has recruited effectively over the last five years. Its average five year class ranking, rounded to the nearest integer, is six (6).
quote::dude:
As the SEC faithful preach on a daily basis, the conference simply has bigger, better, faster players, especially in the trenches.
quote:
Applied to LSU, the average recruiting rankings help to explain why we have eviscerated out of conference challengers, but we haven't appeared in the SEC championship game since 2007.
quote:
The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB.
quote:... free your mind son, and your arse will follow
On the other hand, to defeat marquee SEC nemeses, talent alone isn't sufficient. LSU must execute consistently, apply proper technique, craft creative gameplans, avoid inattentiveness, limit penalties, and play error free football. We've obviously shown the capacity to do just that, but not over the course of an entire SEC season.
quote:Lather, rinse, and repeat
In each of our most recent years, we have suffered breakdowns in playcalling or player execution or game management in at least one SEC contest.
quote:You're needed for the Les Miles show!
The challenge for this incredibly gifted set of Tigers and their coaches is to establish consistent excellence over the next four games.
quote:
If we don't, we'll once more finish as a glamorous runner-up in the SEC West. However, if we do, we have an opportunity to accomplish something not witnessed in Baton Rouge for almost half a century: the elusive undefeated season.
I read it all!
Posted on 10/3/11 at 4:15 pm to The312
quote:LSU has had few lapses this year:
The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB
-Dropped passes in the Oregon/Kentucky games.
-String of consecutive penalites in the 3rd quarter vs MSU
-No sacks vs WVU
Don't get it twisted. This is not the 2010 team. This a well-coached, disciplined & focused LSU team.
Posted on 10/3/11 at 4:21 pm to The312
The suggestion that LSU "simply relied" on overwhelming talent advantage in any of its 5 wins to date (with the possible but unlikely exception of Northwestern Cupcake U)is beyond absurd. It wasn't necessary to install and coach specific scheme to deal with Oregon's offense? Or WVU's? Or even Moo U, where their defense was fairly stout?
Nuts.
Nuts.
Posted on 10/3/11 at 4:23 pm to The312
I hear you and certainly an argument that you make but I have a hard time believing that West Virginia and/or Oregon are a lot less talented than we are, Im just not buying it. Certainly talented teams ahead but I would put West Virginia and Oregon in there too.
Posted on 10/3/11 at 4:50 pm to The312
Thru 5 games ypp is actually less than 2010 even though 20% of schedule is comprised of FCS and somewhat lesser defenses.
Scoring O is up though with more PA in the scheme. Good to be rid of Crowton (Maryland is down from 2010 avg of 32.2 to 24.5ppg).
Scoring O is up though with more PA in the scheme. Good to be rid of Crowton (Maryland is down from 2010 avg of 32.2 to 24.5ppg).
Posted on 10/3/11 at 4:52 pm to The312
All that BS doesn't mean squat...look at Florida last weekend?...how many star players got their arse's handed to them last weekend?....all that writing for nothing...
Posted on 10/3/11 at 5:01 pm to The312
quote:
The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB. On the other hand, to defeat marquee SEC nemeses, talent alone isn't sufficient.
While I see your point....and it is a very good one it begs the question:
When can we make a judgement on how good we are? It seems like a check off list that we all may grade differently....when we look at the whole of the SEC or top tier teams.
Granted, all those things mentioned were evident last year but I have to add....They were evident all year.
If you didn't look at the North Carolina game and say to yourself "It's gonna be a long season".....
Honestly, I don't see much of the same crap I was pulling out my hair about last year.
And because we beat Alabama last year what does that say about their team last year. I mean, remember, we were bad, just surviving at times....so what does that say about the programs we beat that are at our talent level?
I saw Saban make a couple bonehead decisions in the FLorida game (one of which was keeping his starting running back in the game after Florida was down and out). Not to mention our other foe South Carolina who's coach made a few bad calls..
Granted we shot our selves in the foot several time in the past few years but (I know I'm repeating myself) we saw those mistakes and lack of discipline, etc. early on in games against teams we were superior to.
I'm not to sure we'll take the West this year because I think Bama is point better than us but on the other hand I hope to heck we beat them at their place and take the crown...that sure would look good for our program. I really like your observation about the talent pool. That makes a lot of sense.
BTW, what was our ranking the years we won the championship in 03 and 07.
Just to back up some of your points which I agree with... I looked up our record since 07 against the teams you mentioned and threw in Georgia and Arkansas just for the heck of it and we're 11-9; without Arkansas (which i hate just as much as Alabama and any team Houston Nutt coaches) were 10-6...I think. I wonder what their records are. I may go research and post it....?
Posted on 10/3/11 at 6:25 pm to The312
while i think bama's run game is slightly better than lsu's, i think lsu's passing game is slightly better than bama's, even with the drops in the first half of the ky game. plus brantley is out.
lsu 30 florida 10 or 13
tenn's offense is similar to wv's in that they pass well but can't run the ball. not good for tenn. i see lsu with a comfortable win
if you watched the scar/aub game, you saw an incredibly inconsistent and mistake prone auburn team. their defense is not good at all. their offense is very inconsistent. i see lsu with another comfortable win
lsu might not get style points in the next 3 games but, the schedule is significantly tougher than bama's in the same stretch
lsu 30 florida 10 or 13
tenn's offense is similar to wv's in that they pass well but can't run the ball. not good for tenn. i see lsu with a comfortable win
if you watched the scar/aub game, you saw an incredibly inconsistent and mistake prone auburn team. their defense is not good at all. their offense is very inconsistent. i see lsu with another comfortable win
lsu might not get style points in the next 3 games but, the schedule is significantly tougher than bama's in the same stretch
Posted on 10/3/11 at 6:42 pm to The312
Evaporates? Really? So when LSU starts playing Western Kentucky and Ole Miss is the talent level gong to condense thus completing the water cycle?
This post was edited on 10/3/11 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 10/3/11 at 6:55 pm to The312
quote:
There is a statistically significant and incontrovertible correlation between recruiting rankings and on-field performance
There are several examples out there that prove this FALSE! Especially on a particular year... FSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Clemson, Bama.
By recruit rankings - I guess you mean Rivals?
At which adjustment?
Posted on 10/3/11 at 7:05 pm to The312
Talent level? Wake up!!!! WHO DAT you think we been playing lately..... I know Ky is down this season but Jeez.....
Personally, I think the SEC west top 3-4 are better than anywhere in the country. BTW: I like the 40-1 record against everyone but SEC west competition in 2010 - that's phenomenal!
Now, Florida, Tenn, and Auburn are still top-tier SEC teams (i.e. among the top 50% echelon) but they are not any better than what we have played to date. Oregon and WVU will prove to be top 10 teams by the time the season ends. I don't know about our next 3 opponents.....
Coaching is always good and trickeration is better. We'll do what needs to be done when it is necessary. Until then we will just sit back and kick some arse until the "time is right!" \
Personally, I think the SEC west top 3-4 are better than anywhere in the country. BTW: I like the 40-1 record against everyone but SEC west competition in 2010 - that's phenomenal!
Now, Florida, Tenn, and Auburn are still top-tier SEC teams (i.e. among the top 50% echelon) but they are not any better than what we have played to date. Oregon and WVU will prove to be top 10 teams by the time the season ends. I don't know about our next 3 opponents.....
Coaching is always good and trickeration is better. We'll do what needs to be done when it is necessary. Until then we will just sit back and kick some arse until the "time is right!" \
Posted on 10/3/11 at 7:06 pm to The312
To the OP, I find your post to be heavy laden with excessively embellished adjectives, which left me feeling forlorn and slightly befuddled as to your objective in explicating your perception.
Seriously, you lost me at "expecially"
Seriously, you lost me at "expecially"
Posted on 10/3/11 at 7:20 pm to The312
So hows the talent advantage working for teams like, fsu, usc, osu? According to rivals they should be beating the lesser teams.
What about auburn vs clemson? UGA last year, uga vs boise?
Ole Miss vs BYU?
shite even Notre Dame.
Your point isnt really valid. Look at texas last year, and we will look at texas over the next few weeks to see if that talent advantage helps them.
What about auburn vs clemson? UGA last year, uga vs boise?
Ole Miss vs BYU?
shite even Notre Dame.
Your point isnt really valid. Look at texas last year, and we will look at texas over the next few weeks to see if that talent advantage helps them.
This post was edited on 10/3/11 at 7:29 pm
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