Started By
Message

re: No Flow Rates, Levee System failure scenario.. quite possible

Posted on 5/21/11 at 7:28 pm to
Posted by Tigertown in ATL
Georgia foothills
Member since Sep 2009
29206 posts
Posted on 5/21/11 at 7:28 pm to
Slackster,

Thanks for a reasoned response.
This post was edited on 5/21/11 at 7:29 pm
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
20923 posts
Posted on 5/21/11 at 7:29 pm to
quote:

The ORCS can handle 620,000 cfs of water and the Morganza, at full capacity, can absorb 600,000 cfs


It should be noted that ORCS is running above original design capacity at ~660,000 cfs as of 0700 this morning.

LINK
Posted by When in Rome
Telegraph Road
Member since Jan 2011
35559 posts
Posted on 5/21/11 at 8:13 pm to
Okay, I've been waiting for someone who knows what they are talking about to come in so I could ask...how does the recent drought factor into all of this? The earth around the river is able to absorb more than anticipated because of it, right?
Posted by Skooter
Member since Jun 2008
2253 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 1:40 am to
I know Jindal said earlier this week that the water from morganza was flowing slower through the spillway Than expected because of the drought conditions. The land is soaking up a good bit of water. As for the levees . I live off Brightside near river road and I find there's less water/sepage in the ditches along river road than there was in 08.
This post was edited on 5/22/11 at 1:42 am
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
73681 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 9:28 am to
quote:

So my question is, Name something that the Feds control for over forty years that isn't a failure and/or broke (either physically or monetarily)?


only because is is basically the exact same thing...The Hoover Dam
Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
56103 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 9:40 am to
so I should listen to you instead of a couple of army corps guys who told me that there is nothing to worry about. Oh the Mayor as well said not to worry.

hmmm I think ill stick to the other guys.
Posted by Tigertown in ATL
Georgia foothills
Member since Sep 2009
29206 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 10:15 am to
quote:

so I should listen to you instead of a couple of army corps guys


The OP might have implied this but no one else is swinging the pendulum that far. Most responses here are of near brainless level.

quote:

Oh the Mayor as well said not to worry.


That clinches it then. Mayors of major cities are traditionally the most credible people in the world.
This post was edited on 5/22/11 at 10:17 am
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

only because is is basically the exact same thing...The Hoover Dam


Great! SO it's made of the same material as the levees!!! YEah......oh wait....I wonder why the didn't use dirt?
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

And I can know for sure that the ACOE has spent more time studying the levee situation than he has

Absolutely, and they studied them in New Orleans befoer Katrina also, right?....bangup job there, let's trust em again!!!
quote:

Also, roads aren't design for 40 years of service life without maintenance.

So you're happy with the maintenance upkeep on our roads in LA?...

Lokk guys, all I am getting at is ALL rivers have carved theer way thru natural barriers thruoughout history as we all know. SO it is MORONIC (in honor of the OP ALL CAPS) to think that natural erosion of these levees isn't occurring at all times. So it is not out of the question that the OP is on point with parts of his apocolyptic statement :). I was more looking for someone to discount the erosion theory and how it could develope into what the guy described more than I was at just everyone taking shots at him because they lack the knowledge. I don't care what the actual flow rate figure is a or any other genius crunching #'s and crap. THe levees are there and have been there for many many years and some natural erosion has taken place! Now they are flooded to the highest point in 40 yrs! If you think they are in tip top shape in all areas, well then you are a couple of nickels short of a quarter.


Bottom line, is this the method of which causes levee failure?

quote:

Well I'd have to say that the levees seem to be in good condition since they are doing their job right now.


How quickley we forget about Iowa (I think it was there) and Katrina, both just a few years back. Same levee system with the same governing bodies telling everyone they are fine.

quote:

Your government rant reflects poorly on whatever argument you are trying to make.


If you want to argue about government controlled programs that are nation-wide and or interstate projects and see if there are more failures than successes....go right ahead...you'll lose every time. THere is no program that is working as it should.
This post was edited on 5/22/11 at 12:27 pm
Posted by Tigertown in ATL
Georgia foothills
Member since Sep 2009
29206 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

How quickley we forget ....Katrina, Same levee system with the same governing bodies telling everyone they are fine.


While I am tending to your side of the argument, in all fairness it was not the dirt levees that failed in Katrina, it was the seawall type things (can't remember what they are called)
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
73681 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

Great! SO it's made of the same material as the levees!!! YEah......oh wait....I wonder why the didn't use dirt?


wait, so are we talking about the levee or ORCS built 40 years ago and not being maintained? Hasn't concrete been laid on the river side down a large portion of the levee system? and please don't compare the levee system that failed in Katrina to this levee system
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 1:26 pm to
I'm referring to the levees. And I am not talking about the government taking care of a single structure. I'm referring to the levee system and it's maintenance across the country and it being handled by the governing bodies over the last 40 years. THere have been multiple failures, no matter what the material. I think it would be quite unwise to assume our levees are out of harms way.

SO comparing that to the OP and his discription of levee failure, I just stated no one was discrediting his description of the possible failures and how they occur. All everyone did was make fun of his grammer, spelling, caps lock, etc...

I know how mudslides occur and other issues from saturated substances with a erroded foundation react.

I don't think anyone should panic or anything like that, but I wouldn't be unprepared for a failure if I lived in an area protected by the levees.

I hope, pray, and believe they should hold....but it is mostly the hope and prayer part....lol It won't be anyones fault in particular if it does happen. Nature rules us all!
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
73681 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

the LSUSaint


I thought we were talking about ORCS, but either way Hoover Dam is an example of something the goverment has been in control of for over 40 years.

More to the point, the river is on the levee almost every year and there isn't this much concern about wash out and sediment blah blah. not discounting the risk but I would think there are/were people more qualified than us posting on this board that are concerned about it.


another thing that I thought about was how for years scientist warned of exactly what happened in NOLA during Katrina. I would think if this scenario was beyond more than just a possibility you would have some substantial push to improve the system.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 2:56 pm to
You are using anomalies and acting as if they are the standard.

It's completely ridiculous. 99.999% of the time, the things you are complaining about function as they should.

There is no perfect system.
Posted by shaunmccarron29
Member since May 2011
14 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 3:32 pm to
Ex Army Corp Engineer for 22 years. There is my credibility.

I used caps because I was on my phone and typed all that..

-999 READING MEANS THERE IS NO READING. lol instead of saying error, it says that... Just the mer fact that you thought -999 could represent flow rate shows me that you have no knowledge on Hydrogeology. That is the problem people are just not smart.

if you can find me current flow rates, and guys, check the dates on the maps. They have to be from a local or national gov site.

If you can then I can show you what flow rate is, why it is essential, and the impacts it can have.

I am trying to help, but so many got intimidated by the knowledge I was sharing to HELP

I don't know any of you, but I still care. If anyone really knows what they are talking about, then please message me. As for the rest with nothing to add, starting making the noise BAHHHHHHHHHH
That is the noise sheep make.
Posted by shaunmccarron29
Member since May 2011
14 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 3:37 pm to
Yah a Smart person, you are not missing anything, the media being released is inaccurate, so of course if the data you are given is inaccurate, you will never get the result they predict.
Posted by shaunmccarron29
Member since May 2011
14 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 3:44 pm to
if the mayor says your an idiot, would you then come to terms with it!
Posted by the only dirt mcgirt
baton rouge
Member since May 2011
924 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

if you can find me current flow rates, and guys, check the dates on the maps. They have to be from a local or national gov site.

If you can then I can show you what flow rate is, why it is essential, and the impacts it can have.


What do you think about this info from USGS?
Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year (Louisiana)
Posted by ScottieP
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2004
1933 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Flow rates were widely available on many websites until last week. They started dropping off one by one, and now I have not been able to find any site that shows flow rates.


First off to the origianl poster. WOW!!

Let me try to keep this simple, but I have been knee deep in measuring flows on the Miss River, Bonnet Carre and Morganza. Today is my first day off in 2 weeks.

Flows rates are determined by making discharge measurements on the river at different river stages. A stage/discharge relationship is developed based on these measurements. So at a river stage of X feet, a Y amount of CFS is the discharge. As the river rises the discharge increases.

The reason why the flow rates were listed before is that discharge measurements have verified these flow rates at certain stages. Flow rates are then interpolated for the higher river stages where measurements are not made b/c the water did not get that high.

As the water rose this year discharge measurements have continued to be made. At most sites these interpolated values were not accurate. Remember we have not had water this high since 1973 so the last dicharge measurements at this high of water were made 38 years ago. Both the river and technology has changed. We can more accurately measure the discharge now then in the past.

Alot of the USGS ratings needed to be adjusted. Some have, some have not. Most of our guys are in the field making measurements everyday so the office work falls behind.

I would assume the same is happening for the Corps. I would guess the CORps decided to remove the interpolated values from the web rather than display incorrect flow rates.

That is the simple truth. Not some conspiracy to screw the public or keep them in the dark.
Posted by Coon
La 56 Southbound
Member since Feb 2005
18492 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:13 pm to
don't have time to read this thing, but real quick: we all gonna die or what? let me know...
first pageprev pagePage 3 of 5Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram