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re: No Flow Rates, Levee System failure scenario.. quite possible

Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:14 pm to
Posted by the only dirt mcgirt
baton rouge
Member since May 2011
924 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

don't have time to read this thing, but real quick: we all gonna die or what? let me know...



one day or another, we are all gonna die. until then....
Posted by Coon
La 56 Southbound
Member since Feb 2005
18492 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:22 pm to
tru. also, great name.
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

but either way Hoover Dam is an example of something the goverment has been in control of for over 40 years.


I clearly said I wasn't speaking of a single structure but more about federally controlled NATIONAL or INTERSTATE programs

quote:

the river is on the levee almost every year and there isn't this much concern about wash out and sediment blah blah.

Is the water at this level on teh levees every year? THe woryy is the erosion combined with the stress and hieght and the increased flow of the river!

Newsflash, this will be going on for weeks, not a couple of hours.
quote:

I would think if this scenario was beyond more than just a possibility you would have some substantial push to improve the system.


I agree, so since Katrina we've had time to fix thousands of miles of this type of situation?
GET REAL, they still aren't even finished the levee improvements around New Orleans! :banghead:


And,I ask or state my point again.

quote:

SO comparing that to the OP and his discription of levee failure, I just stated no one was discrediting his description of the possible failures and how they occur.
This post was edited on 5/22/11 at 4:27 pm
Posted by Coon
La 56 Southbound
Member since Feb 2005
18492 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:26 pm to

quote:

I clearly said I wasn't speaking of a single structure but more about federally controlled NATIONAL or INTERSTATE programs



quote:

Hoover Dam, once known as Boulder Dam, is a concrete arch-gravity dam in the Black Canyon of the Colorado River, on the border between the US states of Arizona and Nevada.


interstate FTW
Posted by agdoctor
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2004
3142 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 4:42 pm to
current flow rates

LINK
Posted by When in Rome
Telegraph Road
Member since Jan 2011
35545 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 6:56 pm to
quote:

I know Jindal said earlier this week that the water from morganza was flowing slower through the spillway Than expected because of the drought conditions. The land is soaking up a good bit of water


Right, so at least the rates, which is the main cause of concern for the OP, are lower than expected.
Posted by JulianD
Member since May 2011
49 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 7:43 pm to
Ok, got about halfway through this before i lost interest, but for what it's worth... I dealt with quite a few "conspiracy nuts" post BP. The vast majority had dead on stats, it's the long flung conclusions that are suspect. Given a decent bandwith and enough coffee, the majority of the tin foil hats are usually dead accurate on statistics. It's the interpretations... And don't kid yourself, some of these folks have spent MORE time than the COE on this...
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17673 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 8:24 pm to
quote:

shaunmccarron29

Fail.
quote:

He hypothesizes that 100% of the Vicksburg flow goes to New Orleans. That is incorrect. The ORCS can handle 620,000 cfs of water and the Morganza, at full capacity, can absorb 600,000 cfs. That allows less than 1.5M to flow by Baton Rouge, and combined with the Bonnet Carre, New Orleans only sees 1.1 to 1.2M cfs.

Correct. There's still some wiggle room to keep BR and NOLA under their max allowable flows.

This thread should be whacked. Seriously.
Posted by Tigertown in ATL
Georgia foothills
Member since Sep 2009
29206 posts
Posted on 5/22/11 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

we all gonna die or what?


Yes. Yesterday was the day
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/23/11 at 8:43 pm to
BUMP!!

Do teh smartass mf'ers that think allthis water doesn't threaten teh levees, well it just washed out a government controlled railroad track section near the spillway.

ANy smartass still wonna chime in about how the corps have said everything is fine. and all these things were designed for this. and how erosion do to flow rates and water levels aren't and issue.

Measure that all you people who are crunching #'s to see if rates are what he gauges say.

Still fell like all the levees are up to speed and erosion isn't happeneing?
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 5/23/11 at 8:48 pm to
How about this, if the levees don't fail, you stop posting forever.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58165 posts
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:00 pm to
quote:

Do teh smartass mf'ers that think allthis water doesn't threaten teh levees, well it just washed out a government controlled railroad track section near the spillway.


Are you drunk or an ignorant redneck? Pick one.
Posted by Coon
La 56 Southbound
Member since Feb 2005
18492 posts
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:21 pm to
9:20 on Monday night and i'm still not dead. This thread is the disappoint.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101476 posts
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

BUMP!! Do teh smartass mf'ers that think allthis water doesn't threaten teh levees, well it just washed out a government controlled railroad track section near the spillway. ANy smartass still wonna chime in about how the corps have said everything is fine. and all these things were designed for this. and how erosion do to flow rates and water levels aren't and issue. Measure that all you people who are crunching #'s to see if rates are what he gauges say. Still fell like all the levees are up to speed and erosion isn't happeneing?


What is this clown's malfunction?
Posted by Helo
Orlando
Member since Nov 2004
4592 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 5:53 am to
quote:

Do teh smartass mf'ers that think allthis water doesn't threaten teh levees,

Things happen. Pretty sure no one believes the water doesn't threaten the levee but being overly alarmist doesn't help.

quote:

well it just washed out a government controlled railroad track section near the spillway.


"Canadian National Railroad, which owns the track, says the damage was discovered yesterday afternoon and at this point, there is no telling how long the railroad bridge will be out of service for repairs."

LINK
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
98888 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 7:48 am to
So what I am gathering from the OP is:

1) There's a LOT of water;
2) The water is taxing the present flood control system in place by the COE;
3) The COE is not telling "us" how bad it is to keep "us" from panicking;
4) Because of 1-3, we're all gonna die.

What I am hearing from most of the respondents is:

1) is true;
2) is true;
3) is not true;
4) we're all gonna die, but not because of 1-3.

I tend to side with the latter group; however, it is somewhat troubling that the flow rate through BC appears to be much higher than was expected by COE. I do not extrapolate this to mean that the COE's math is "off" up and down the river, but I do have a concern that BC could have a significant structural problem in light of the fact that the flow rate is well beyond the design tolerances.
This post was edited on 5/24/11 at 7:49 am
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 8:52 am to
Yea, that's a pretty good summary
Posted by the LSUSaint
Member since Nov 2009
15444 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 9:56 am to
Ha ha...Look, they had some guy talking shite about the OP because he put forth a theory, although it was sky-is-falling type shite, about how the levees naturally erode over time and after large increases in flood waters and flow, they are in jeopardy of failing.

I argued that instead of making fun of the OP, try to discredit his claim.

His (or their) response was something about how the government does fine with its programs to control interstate or national having done great and that THE LEVEES are fine because the corps said so.

SO the railroad fails because of flow and erosion (which are things the corps and others say are built to withstand) and I was making fun of the clowns who think that failures aren't a strong possibility with what is going on-NO MATTER WHAT THE FEDS SAY!

So once again, I would love to hear someone discredit the theory of the OP's levee erosion....without the apocolypse bs of course. I'm not saying he's right (op). WHat I said was making fun of his caps lock or spelling or threat of invasions..

Posted by JulianD
Member since May 2011
49 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 10:35 am to
You can't, to disprove him requires knowledge of the future. My crystal ball is in the shop.

And let's be honest, the corps is not exactly batting 1000 so far (remember the time frame maps, revised inundation charts, etc) so they aren't inspiring a ton of confidence. That being said, I would rather put faith in them than someone ranting about flooded terrorists. You cant separate that from the message. It's the whackadoodle mindset and what folks like that can't understand is it ruins an otherwise interesting, informed debate because they discredit themselves.
Posted by the only dirt mcgirt
baton rouge
Member since May 2011
924 posts
Posted on 5/24/11 at 10:52 am to
quote:

I would rather put faith in them than someone ranting about flooded terrorists.

hear, hear
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