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OFFICIAL BCS THREAD - LSU #6
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:28 pm
Official Standings
**This thread is to discuss hypothetical scenarios. It is not to discuss whether LSU has the ability to go undefeated or not. Also, we realize there is a lot of games left. Fortunately, as fans we can enjoy "looking ahead" as much as we want.
BCS STANDINGS BREAKDOWN
Here a best guess of the BCS standings (updated at 2:00 pm). Only the Coaches and Sagarin have been released, so there is a lot of guess work on my part. The top 5 (and especially the top 3) are really close and could finish in any order.
1. Oklahoma could be anywhere 1-3, but I think they may take the top spot. One would expect they control their own destiny with a relatively difficult schedule (Big12CG and FSU OOC), but it could be a dog fight with Oregon and LSU/AU if it came to that.
2. Oregon. The Pac10 is strong this year but lack of CG could hurt them if it cam down to 3 major undefeateds. Style points should help them in the polls though.
3. Boise State. And so it begins. They could hold on to #1 this week, but I have them beginning their slip. I was starting to buy into them having a shot. Then Oregon State lost as did Nevada (they needed Nevada). How does undefeated Boise fair against 1-loss Bama or LSU? It will be interesting.
4. Auburn. Big win over Arky bumped them up. One would think an undefeated SEC team is in easily, although OU and UO could be interesting.
5. TCU. TCU plays a bit of a tougher schedule than Boise so should fair better in the computers in the long run. They need Utah to keep winning. In the end, I think they share Boise's fate, but could be better off against a 1-loss teams
6. LSU. Playing McNeese (and struggling) should have little effect on LSU's current or future ranking. Beat AU and they shoot up to #3 or better.
7. MSU. Climbing the polls and computers, but they play no CG, skip out on OSU, don't play a super tough OOC opponent, and well, they are MSU.
8. Bama. Best position as a 1-loss obviously.
9. Utah. That Utah/TCU matchup gets more interesting everyday
10. OSU. Need a lot of help for a NC
HOW COMPUTER POLLS WORK
There is always chatter about the computer polls early and how they look bizarre. Many use it as an opportunity to discount the validity of them (and the BCS altogether). But remember, this is a STRENGTH of the computer polls; the fact they don’t have predetermined bias for teams based on what conference they play, how many National Titles they won in the 50s or if they are supposed to be good this year. If North Texas and Florida win their first game and start 1-0, they should be ranked the same (or close to it), because the computers don’t assume Florida was supposed to be better, nor does it assume their wins were better (even if Florida beat USC and North Texas beat ULM). As the season progresses, SOS can be determined more accurately and that Florida win over USC can be given more weight. Ultimately its SOS (however that poll determines it) is used to distinguish teams of like records. Remember SOS isn’t determined by what the Coaches poll thinks are the good teams, it is determined by what has been accomplished on the field this year.
In short, I don’t really trust any computer poll that DOESN'T look bizarre the first few weeks of the season. The Billingsly poll actually does use a “preseason” ranking which is his final poll from the previous year. It is based on a little more common sense, but I still find it unfair, and 90% of the time it is excluded from the BCS as an outlier. Sagarin and Massey also use “preseason” polls which make their polls look sensible early on, but both claim to drop that data by week 5. Anybody interested in how computer polls work should visit colleyrankings.com, Dr. Colley gives an excellent description of his poll and how and why it isn’t biased. There is a lot of math, but even if you get lost, the introduction is excellent.
TD.COM COMPUTER POLLS AND MOCK BCS
Several of your fellow posters produce excellent computer polls. The Tuba 101 has been a staple of TD.com for years. Xiv produces one also; both polls give outlandish results the first few weeks – a mark of a great computer poll imo! I have created my own also, the basic principle being that if two teams play there is a probability each team will win. The binger the difference in ranking, the greater chance the better team will win. I then solve a bunch of simultaneous equations (120, one for each team) which equates the expected wins (based on probability) with the actual wins for a team. Last we mergeg the td.com computer polls with the TD top 10 to create a mock BCS. We may do the same. I will release the lsumatt poll as soon as I can
THE EFFECT OF 1AA AND OTHER “WEAK TEAMS”
Strength of schedule is an inherent part of computer polls. It is how it is determined which team with the same record should be rated higher (or if 2-loss LSU should be higher than undefeated Hawaii). One misconception is that playing a 1AA team or a weak team actually hurts you; that you would be better off not playing a game at all. The thought process is that it brings down the average SOS of your team. For the most part, this just isn’t true. Beating McNeese State won’t help LSU’s rating much at all (if any), but rarely, if ever, will it hurt you in the computers (other teams may jump LSU because they improved their rating with a tough opponent but would have done the same if LSU had a BYE). After all, beating a 1AA team is still (slightly) tougher than beating OPEN DATE. A couple computer polls ignore 1AA games altogether and treat them as an open date.
A DESCRIPTION OF THE BCS POLLS
Most of the BCS polls use an “iterative” strategy: the guess all the teams ranking, determine SOS based on that, re-calculate the ranking, and repeat until there is no change (and no, it doesn’t matter what their initial guess is). They don’t use MOV and the final poll doesn’t use any preseason bias (except Billingsly). Here is my best description of the computer polls (only Billingsly and Colley explain their ratings)
COLLEY MATRIX ( COLLEY). My favorite poll, because it is mathematically sound and he describes it in detail (see his pdf online). He basically sets up 120 equations and solves them. His algorithm is spelled out so well, we can (and I do) re-create his poll. I also have a “future poll” in which I predict the final Colley matrix based on expected outcomes of future games.
BILLINGSLY. What I call the “common sense” poll. The math is simple and he uses a preseason poll (last year’s final poll). He explains in detail on his website. He also does something different in which strength of schedule is a hybrid of a team’s current ranking and their final ranking. So if you beat Ole Miss in week 2, but then end up 5-7 you get some credit for beating a top 10 team. He claims top10 “feel” of the game, is important. Regardless, his poll is almost always excluded as an outlier.
SAGARIN. I hate this poll, mostly because he refuses to explain it at all. Also, I am suspicious of his preseason ranking (which he claims to drop). He has two polls: the predictor which uses MOV and elochess which doesn’t…it is elochess that is included in the BCS). Sagarin also includes a Home/Away component which I think is good. Also, empirical evidence suggests that a bad loss in Sagarin weighs you like an anchor. For example, losing to 4-8 Tenn is 2005 killed LSU.
ANDERSON and HESTER. Another iterativ
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:33 pm to lsumatt
Thanks Matt. Look forward to your BCS threads.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:38 pm to lsumatt
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TUBA 101, XIV, and LSUMATT POLL. All being wooed by the BCS, but we are holding out for a better offer
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Thanks Matt - you da man!
TUBA 101, XIV, and LSUMATT POLL. All being wooed by the BCS, but we are holding out for a better offer
-----------------------------------------------
Thanks Matt - you da man!
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:39 pm to LSUcrawfish
So is it possible for LSU to be a spot higher depending the computer polls or is this the best spot for LSU?
Thanks Matt for your work
Thanks Matt for your work
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:42 pm to bishop
quote:
So is it possible for LSU to be a spot higher depending the computer polls or is this the best spot for LSU?
Looks like a ceiling to me, but I could be wrong. Auburn is above LSU in the polls and probably the computers this week.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:50 pm to lsumatt
As always, thanks for the great work. I, for one, would like to hear your thoughts after the official week 1 BCS poll is released tonight.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:53 pm to LawTiger
How were projected to be #6 before OSU and Nebraska lost ? so they lost and we are still #6 WTF ?
Over and Out, Beep Beep
Over and Out, Beep Beep
This post was edited on 10/17/10 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 10/17/10 at 2:55 pm to thelsutigers
quote:
How were projected to be #6 before OSU and Nebraska lost ? so they lost and we are still #6 WTF ?
Nebraska was ranked behind us and Auburn gained a lot of points in their S.O.S. with a win over Arkansas.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:01 pm to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
Requested sticky
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:05 pm to PsychTiger
Matt- what is the probability that CLM will start JJ again- can this be computed or is it off the charts?
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:09 pm to 756
When Miles and JJ are involved all mathematical formulas are rendered irrelevant.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:16 pm to PsychTiger
you guys realize that not only did we move up in the computer polls but also the coaches poll,we will be better than six believe dat.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:23 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Looks like a ceiling to me, but I could be wrong. Auburn is above LSU in the polls and probably the computers this week.
Is it better for LSU to be under Auburn next week for a better ranking if LSU beats them next week?
This is what I have based off of last weeks prelim mock poll and SoS.
I do not believe Oklahoma will be ranked #1 tonight in the BCS poll. It will be either Auburn or LSU 1 or 2 with Bama in at 5. Oregon and Oklahoma at 3 and 4 and Boise St 6 and TCU 7 Ohio St 8 Mizzu at 9 and Iowa at 10.
BCS
1. Auburn
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Boise St
7. TCU
8. Ohio St
9. Mizzu
10. Iowa
That is mine and I am basing it on SoS so far this year. That is why I am giving the nod to Auburn as #1 but not by much because of the Coaches poll giving them a higher rank in their poll.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:24 pm to tigerclaw10
Since 2/3 of the BCS formula is derived by adding the total of the two human poll votes, and with OSU and Nebraska (both ranked above us in those polls) lost, I can't see how LSU wouldn't move above 6th, especially if the Tigers remain #1 in the computer rankings.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:24 pm to tigerclaw10
The loss by USAF is not going to help Boise and TCU at all. I would not be surprised to see Boise already start their fall.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:28 pm to CaseyMc2
quote:
I do not believe Oklahoma will be ranked #1 tonight in the BCS poll. It will be either Auburn or LSU 1 or 2 with Bama in at 5. Oregon and Oklahoma at 3 and 4 and Boise St 6 and TCU 7 Ohio St 8 Mizzu at 9 and Iowa at 10.
Prepare to be extremely wrong.
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:30 pm to lsumatt
LSU was ahead of Auburn by two spots when LSU was ranked #9 in the human polls and Auburn was #7.
Now LSU's #6, Harris poll pending, and Auburn's #5.
Did Auburn's win over Arkansas give them that much of a boost to jump LSU in the BCS even though LSU closed the human poll margin?
Now LSU's #6, Harris poll pending, and Auburn's #5.
Did Auburn's win over Arkansas give them that much of a boost to jump LSU in the BCS even though LSU closed the human poll margin?
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:33 pm to rollthatback
I work on BCS formulas like lsumatt. And i haft to say i disagree LSU will be #5
Posted on 10/17/10 at 3:45 pm to fightingsaint3
waht are the two human polls again?
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