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New leak volume report
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:03 pm
NPR just reported that the estimate amount of oil leaking is not the originally thought 5,000 barrels per day...instead they think it is 10x that much - 50,000 barrels per day.
Looking for link on website...
Looking for link on website...
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:05 pm to BatonRougeRugby
I have been wondering how they measure one liquid under 5,000 feet of another liquid?
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:07 pm to MC123
I believe if the pressure on the pipe is known flow rate can be calculated.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:08 pm to MC123
on radio now...can't find it on web. According to a professor looking at the flow from the pipe.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:20 pm to BatonRougeRugby
well if that is accurate:
50,000 barrels X 42 gal/barrel = 2.1 million gallons leaked per day
times roughly 20 days since the leak began = 42 MILLION GALLONS LEAKED so far
HOLY shite
50,000 barrels X 42 gal/barrel = 2.1 million gallons leaked per day
times roughly 20 days since the leak began = 42 MILLION GALLONS LEAKED so far
HOLY shite
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:26 pm to MC123
Yeah, they said it is Valdez amount every few days.
Maybe that is why so much dispersant is being used - if it's not on the surface, it doesn't seem like it is as bad.
Maybe that is why so much dispersant is being used - if it's not on the surface, it doesn't seem like it is as bad.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:37 pm to BatonRougeRugby
quote:
According to a professor looking at the flow from the pipe.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 6:42 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Do these peeps believe everything they read?
If so hey they just stopped the leak and actually reversed the polarity of oil and Its going back into the well it came from. Yeeeeeehaaaaaw
If so hey they just stopped the leak and actually reversed the polarity of oil and Its going back into the well it came from. Yeeeeeehaaaaaw
Posted on 5/13/10 at 7:03 pm to BatonRougeRugby
This may sound incredibly stupid...but at this point how much is actually leaking is moot. Stopping it is the only important issue. Whether it has been leaking 5000 bpd, or 50,000 bpd, we are already seeing the impact. It seems like assigning it a definitive number is just a huge waste of time. It is too much "fricking" oil...thats how much is leaking....(also skytruth has been asserting this number since day 2)....Now, who has the scoop on what went wrong with the top hat?
Posted on 5/13/10 at 7:12 pm to BatonRougeRugby
I really don't know what to believe, but NPR is not going to be my source if I am looking for facts.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:02 pm to MoreOrLes
I believe they take the weight/volume/density of the crude, the size of the pipe, the pressure of the resivior and the depth of 5000' and put into a formula and calculate the bbls.
that's how I would do it if I knew how.
that's how I would do it if I knew how.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:14 pm to notiger1997
quote:
but NPR is not going to be my source if I am looking for facts
So who would you believe, exactly?
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:18 pm to eye65
quote:
also skytruth has been asserting this number since day 2
Actually, they have been estimating 26,500 barrels since May 1st.
This post was edited on 5/13/10 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:25 pm to eye65
quote:actually it could be very important if they want to attempt a fix by physically plugging the pipe... if it's 50,000 bbl/day I'd assume that the pressure involved with a plug would greatly alter their gameplan.
This may sound incredibly stupid...but at this point how much is actually leaking is moot. Stopping it is the only important issue. Whether it has been leaking 5000 bpd, or 50,000 bpd, we are already seeing the impact. It seems like assigning it a definitive number is just a huge waste of time.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:29 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
I believe they take the weight/volume/density of the crude, the size of the pipe, the pressure of the resivior and the depth of 5000' and put into a formula and calculate the bbls.
yes, i'm sure that's part of it. this information is used to perform a nodal analysis of the flow and predict the anticipated flowrate. however, this is not conventional flow (up the ID of a single string of pipe). instead, what BP suspects is that that the well is flowing up the backside of the casing - so it is annular flow.
additionally, when nodal analysis is performed there's typically measured flow data to compare it to in order to validate the model. they don't have this here.
also, we're talking about unrestricted flow at the wellhead - wide arse open. that is an ultra-extreme case, and would it would be very difficult for the nodal software to handle it.
think of it this way -- watch the water flow out of a firehose and make a guess as to what the flowrate is.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:31 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I really don't know what to believe, but NPR is not going to be my source if I am looking for facts.
I would like to know whose stats you would trust as well. NPR can be liberal as frick, but they aren't exactly known for making things up.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:40 pm to NewGuy01
quote:
but they aren't exactly known for making things up.
Maybe I was wrong to say that, but there have been quite a few articles that seem to have been full of shite.
I admit to not really knowing all that much in this, so lets just hope that a partial fix takes place soon.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 8:50 pm to notiger1997
i don't believe NPR is making anything up; however, i heard the report this evening as well. it sounded to me like they had an academic view the tape and make an estimate -- so what exactly was this expert's qualifications? what school does he teach at? what department does he teach in? no specifics were offered.
this event involves a subject that i know a great deal about, and i have found most of the media reporting simplistic and slanted against the industry in general. not explicity by misstating facts, but more often by trying to relay a complex concept in simplistic terms, and phrased in such a way as to say "well, can you believe this stupidity! how can we allow such a thing?"
all i'm trying to say is that while most of the world thinks the oilfield is "just a bunch of idiots poking a hole in the ground and praying for goo" (mr. burns quote), this is actually an unbelievably complex operation and there's almost nothing simple about it. to paint it as such is a disservice to both the industry and the general public.
this event involves a subject that i know a great deal about, and i have found most of the media reporting simplistic and slanted against the industry in general. not explicity by misstating facts, but more often by trying to relay a complex concept in simplistic terms, and phrased in such a way as to say "well, can you believe this stupidity! how can we allow such a thing?"
all i'm trying to say is that while most of the world thinks the oilfield is "just a bunch of idiots poking a hole in the ground and praying for goo" (mr. burns quote), this is actually an unbelievably complex operation and there's almost nothing simple about it. to paint it as such is a disservice to both the industry and the general public.
Posted on 5/13/10 at 9:05 pm to BatonRougeRugby
they're talking bout this on CNN right now...thats an exxon valdez every four days
Posted on 5/13/10 at 9:05 pm to oilfieldtiger
quote:
so what exactly was this expert's qualifications? what school does he teach at? what department does he teach in? no specifics were offered.
"The analysis was conducted by Steve Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry. Harris tells Michele Norris that the method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent. That means the flow could range between 56,000 barrels a day and 84,000 barrels a day.
Another analysis by Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California, Berkeley, calculated the rate of flow to be between 20,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day."
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