- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:18 am to HammerheadLincoln
Correct. Judging Syracuse off a game against Chaminade is like judging LSU against Miss Valley St, but slightly worse
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:23 am to LaBR4
Just looked up their roster they have a 7'4 guy, a 7'2 guy and two 6'11 guys
I don't know if these dudes are any good but still.
I don't know if these dudes are any good but still.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:26 am to rds dc
quote:
Although early, it does show up in RPI with Cuse 73 but LSU 176, with both teams being 4-2. However, the advanced stat sites like LSU better, but not by much.
LSU losing to Nicholls is going to be a massive NET/RPI anchor the entire season.
Well that and their bad record.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:33 am to rds dc
Cuse is far from the power they were under Boheim, but their name still carries weight. A road win for the Tigers here would be big.
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 8:33 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:55 am to The Boat
quote:
LSU losing to Nicholls is going to be a massive NET/RPI anchor the entire season.
Well that and their bad record.
Looking at the remainder of LSU's non-conf schedule, this is almost a must-win, or they will need to beat K State and Texas. The remainder of their games are against truly horrible RPI teams. Lose this game and get swept by K State & Texas, and the RPI probably won't recover this season, even to NIT standards.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:58 am to lsudave1
quote:They start the 7'4" guy, but plays about 20 minutes. Could cause difficulty for Baker inside as Baker doesn't exactly out-athlete you and relies on a height advantage. Collins may match up better.
Just looked up their roster they have a 7'4 guy, a 7'2 guy and two 6'11 guys
I don't know if these dudes are any good but still.
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 8:59 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:02 am to mmcgrath
It's crazy how far Syracuse has fallen.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:08 am to Pnels08
quote:
But the big key is they are DOGSHITE at shooting the three. Currently shooting a 337th best in the country 25.9 percent.
Guaranteed they go off from 3
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:11 am to GentleJackJones
Just wait. The fall isn't over by any stretch.
They're hired a "cluse man", and are paying him $50/hr to coach the team.
They also run a $40 million/year deficit against a school like LSU in regards to TV money.
They'll be Georgetown in the next 5 years.
They're hired a "cluse man", and are paying him $50/hr to coach the team.
They also run a $40 million/year deficit against a school like LSU in regards to TV money.
They'll be Georgetown in the next 5 years.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 10:06 am to Pnels08
quote:
Against all odds our defense actually has been okay this season, the large eye sore? Opponent 3 point percentage, we are giving up 35% from the 3 point line.
What's worse is LSU is 2nd to worst in the NATION in % of opponent's points from 3. That is a big reason why opponents have stayed close and won in games where LSU had a significant FG% advantage.
It appears very clear that McMahon's defensive strategy is to allow opponents freedom to shoot as may threes as they like. How is it clear? Because LSU is 349 of 362 in opponent's 3 point attempts per game (28). That defensive approach seems to fly in the face of modern analytics where teams are happy to trade a lower shooting % for a higher volume of threes rather than have a higher shooting % with a lower volume of threes. The reason for that approach is so simple a kindergartener could understand it. 3 points is more than 2 points. That how LSU can shoot a combined average of 52% (overall) vs. combined 35% by Dayton and N. Texas and leave those games 1-1 with only a +1 point differential. The only way you don't win games going away with those margins is if you (a) let the opponent get a high VOLUME of threes and (2) allow your opponent to attempt significantly more shots than you (because of turnovers/poor defensive rebounding)
While LSU hasn't been overly efficient offensively (to date), they aren't shooting the ball poorly. 47%...ranked 58th of 362. LSU hasn't been great at holding on to the ball. Turning it over on 18% of their possessions (ranked 225/362). But they have completely mitigated that by being great at forcing the opponent to turn the ball over. Opponents are turning the ball over vs. LSU on 23% of their possessions. That's good enough to rank LSU at 17th in the nation in that stat. Where LSU is getting killed more than anywhere else is they are allowing opponents to make (on average) 10 three pointers a game 345th out of 362
Like you said, Syracuse has not been a good 3 point shooting team this year. So, presumably, this matchup could favor LSU. I'm ok with LSU allowing Syracuse to prove they can hit from deep early on. But if they start out hot from deep, McMahon MUST be willing to quickly adjust to get SU off the three point line.
Just like vs. Wake Forest, these are the three stats I will be watching
1. Opponent's made 3 pointers.
If LSU can keep SU in the 6-9 range of made 3 pointers I think LSU could have a shot. 10+, then LSU will have to shoot a season high from 3 to match.
2. Turnovers
Can LSU limit their turnovers to 10 or less while forcing 13 or more? Forcing turnovers has been LSU's biggest advantage to date. I would love to see LSU in the +6-7 range tonight.
3. FG attempts
LSU is 297th in the country in total FG attempts (56). They are 310th in opponent FG attempt allowed (63). More FG attempts = more opportunities for made baskets. Less FG attempts means a lower margin for error of missed baskets.
Syracuse is averaging 65 FGA per game (24th in the nation). That's nearly 10 more than what LSU is averaging. Can LSU close that margin? If the FGA discrepancy is +4-5 Syracuse, I think LSU could be ok. If it is +10-15, I don't care what FG% LSU shoots, Syracuse is likely going to win.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 10:46 am to rds dc
quote:
Lose this game and get swept by K-State & Texas
I think that's pretty much the default condition for this year's team.
Never think that preconference games are the same as preseason. Look at last year's Vandy Commodores. They finished 11-7 and tied for fourth in the SEC with Missouri, and won 10 of 11 conference games in one stretch late last season, beating Kentucky and Florida each twice, and beating Tennessee and Auburn, and making the semis of the SEC tourney. But they were an undistinguished 6-7 in nonconference action, and could not be found on the NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 10:54 am to rds dc
I'm excited for this game. A must win for us.
Judah Mintz is a baller. We're gonna need to lock him down.
Judah Mintz is a baller. We're gonna need to lock him down.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 10:56 am to tarzana
quote:
I think that's pretty much the default condition for this year's team.
McMahon doesn't get the benefit of the doubt until he earns the benefit of the doubt. He can start on the road to doing that with a win tonight. Until he starts winning some games like this no one is going to EXPECT him to.
quote:
Never think that preconference games are the same as preseason. Look at last year's Vandy Commodores. They finished 11-7 and tied for fourth in the SEC with Missouri, and won 10 of 11 conference games in one stretch late last season, beating Kentucky and Florida each twice, and beating Tennessee and Auburn, and making the semis of the SEC tourney. But they were an undistinguished 6-7 in nonconference action, and could not be found on the NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday.
College basketball can be hard to predict. You never quite know when a team will get red hot (like Vandy did last season) or completely collapse (Like LSU did after an 11-1 non-conf record and beating a ranked Arkansas team to start SEC play).
IIRC, Vandy was in the discussion for a NCAAT bid. Ironically, it was probably LSU that kept them out. Vandy won 8 of their final 9 SEC games last year. Included in those wins were victories over Tennessee, Florida (2x), Kentucky, Auburn, Miss. St. The ONE loss...@ 1-13 (SEC) LSU who was in the midst of a 14 game losing streak.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 10:59 am to rds dc
quote:If the only thing holding us back from postseason is our OOC schedule, but we were competitive in the SEC, I would take that tradeoff at this point in the rebuilding process.
Looking at the remainder of LSU's non-conf schedule, this is almost a must-win, or they will need to beat K State and Texas. The remainder of their games are against truly horrible RPI teams. Lose this game and get swept by K State & Texas, and the RPI probably won't recover this season, even to NIT standards.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:04 am to Alt26
quote:
What's worse is LSU is 2nd to worst in the NATION in % of opponent's points from 3. That is a big reason why opponents have stayed close and won in games where LSU had a significant FG% advantage.
It appears very clear that McMahon's defensive strategy is to allow opponents freedom to shoot as may threes as they like. How is it clear? Because LSU is 349 of 362 in opponent's 3 point attempts per game (28). That defensive approach seems to fly in the face of modern analytics where teams are happy to trade a lower shooting % for a higher volume of threes rather than have a higher shooting % with a lower volume of threes.
It could just mean that we have had a decided height advantage inside and have had relatively short guards, going large stretches with 2 6'1" guards. If we use more Williams and Mwani / Wright at guard that may improve, although I think many of our players aren't particularly skilled at perimeter defense.
I don't think McMahon's "plan" is to give up as many 3's as possible.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:15 am to mmcgrath
quote:
It could just mean that we have had a decided height advantage inside and have had relatively short guards, going large stretches with 2 6'1" guards. If we use more Williams and Mwani / Wright at guard that may improve, although I think many of our players aren't particularly skilled at perimeter defense.
I do agree with you that height is an issue. Carlos Stewart tries on defense, but I've seen numerous times this year where he closes out properly, jumps up to contest, but he's just so short that he doesn't impact the shooter. I think better lineups could mitigate the piss poor 3pt defense we've displayed so far.
McMahon cannot repeat himself like a broken record about fixing switching and 3pt defense while consistently running lineups with multiple undersized players and mismatches waiting to happen from an erroneous switch.
Our team does not talk enough on defense. WW switch everything defense worked so well largely in fact due to having leaders on defense who speak, communicate, and lead a defense and tell people where to switch. I noticed communication a lot during the scrimmage against LCU, but it's not been there in the subsequent games. I'm not sure why. What I do know is that we have players who are switchable and communicate on defense, namely Derek and Mwani, but they don't get enough minutes. McMahon cannot force a switching defense while running 3 undersized players and an immobile bigman.
quote:
I don't think McMahon's "plan" is to give up as many 3's as possible.
McMahon has made it clear that 3pt defense is a problem. He's said it in multiple press conferences this season. I agree that I don't think it's his "plan" to allow three pointers. However, I do think that our players aren't coached properly on switching. We often switch two guys or turn help defense into a full on switch when someone cuts or rolls, leaving three pointers open, especially from the corner or wing.
Improvements need to be made. Either change the defensive scheme or run lineups that are more suited to running a switch everything man to man.
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 11:30 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:35 am to mmcgrath
quote:
I don't think McMahon's "plan" is to give up as many 3's as possible.
I didn't say "made" 3 pointers. 3 point attempts.
It's basketball. Opponents are going to get shots. Several of them in fact. Generally, the defensive plan is working to force your opponent to take the shots YOU want them to take, attempted by the guys YOU want to take them.
It's more difficult to make a deep shot than a lay up. That's why they count for more. Thus, it's not a bad strategy to give up looks from 3 by poor 3 point shooters. But that strategy isn't without limitations. If you are getting beat from 3 you have to do what is necessary to take away those looks...even if it means you're giving up good looks from 2. Opponents aren't "shooting over" LSU's short guards. They are taking the shots LSU is giving them. And LSU is giving them 3's
From what I have seen thus far LSU's defensive strategy has been to help and dig to try to force deflections/steals. To a degree it is working. They are forcing a lot of turnovers. But they are also choosing to help off of shooters to try to force those turnovers. It's great when it works. But when it doesn't, you leave a guy with a wide-open look. (Coincidentally, it's a strategy Wade employed when he was here. Often with little success). LSU has been willing to give those looks to increase their chances for a steal. But sometimes you MUST be aware of who you are helping off of. SF who shoots 28% from deep on 2 attempts per game? Help off of him all day. It he beats the odds and makes a three you live with it. The opponent's better 3 point shooters? Don't help off of them. The increased chance for a steal probably isn't work the risk of a made three in that scenario. The discipline to know who to leave and who not to leave takes coaching and scouting. Right now, it appears LSU is willing to allow anyone and everyone to take good looks from three.
It's also contributing to the defensive rebounding woes. Long misses often = long rebounds. Long rebounds often favor the shooting team. Offensive rebounds for the opponents =more FGA for the opponent and less for you. More FGA often leads to more made baskets. It all works together. I'm ok right now with LSU getting a few less steals per game if it means you are forcing the "right" guys, from an defensive perspective, to take the "right" shots. That's been a problem thus far. LSU is letting too many good shooters get too many good looks from 3.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:38 am to mcmaniacinsaneasylum
quote:
Judah Mintz is a baller.
He may be a baller...and a shot caller...but that's not a Impala
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 11:39 am
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News