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Started By
Message
re: Average interest rate on 30 year mortgage rises to 7.59%, highest since December 2000
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:11 am to Wally Sparks
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:11 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
So does anyone here think that the 2021-level rates were ever sustainable?
Rates were held ridiculously low for 14-15 years. It made no sense. We'd have ended up with high inflation at some point anyway. Covid just accelerated it
0
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:18 am to Suntiger
quote:
They will start dropping rates in a few years once they feel inflation is under control. Rates will go back down to 5-6%. Life goes on.
I’m not so sure, at least in the short term. Earnings are up for most people as employers try to retain staff during this inflationary period. Employment rates are good. Investment companies are buying properties with cash, which seems to be keeping national home prices from cratering. Foreign oil suppliers are cutting production to keep the price of energy high. Inflation has slowed but is still outpacing historic norms by a good margin, and it doesn’t appear likely we are going to drop to 2% for a while. I think we are either in for a very slow inflationary recovery or we will fall off a cliff suddenly. Either way I think getting back to normal is a long way out.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:43 am to Yaboylsu63
Most of my life its been around 8%, not impressed.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:46 am to slackster
quote:
a good chunk of this is a global problem
BS. This administration declared war on the US Oil and Gas Industry from their first day in office, and between the EPA, the COE, Interior, and actions by the Executive branch, they’ve turned us back to depending on countries that hate us, rather than staying energy independent.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:47 am to deeprig9
quote:
deal you a down card and a 10 face up. You say hit me. So I give you another card. It is a 7. I'm ready to move to the next player but you say Hit Me again. You have Blackjack Bust mentality like a 3rd grader, chasing 21.
Nice rebuttal.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:51 am to Icansee4miles
quote:
BS. This administration declared war on the US Oil and Gas Industry from their first day in office, and between the EPA, the COE, Interior, and actions by the Executive branch, they’ve turned us back to depending on countries that hate us, rather than staying energy independent.
We’re going to produce more oil this year in the US than we’ve ever produced in history, despite Biden, and it continues to climb every month.
Oil is a global commodity. The intellectually lazy argument is to blame Biden for everything.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:54 am to slackster
Weird that gas is at $7 again in CA with that being true
Posted on 9/22/23 at 6:58 am to ob1pimpbobi
quote:
I just watched the Big Short today. DO I need to do what that weird guy did and bet short on the housing market. Cause it sounds like we are right back there.
It ain’t the real estate market that is going to tank this time…
There is a reason that Blackrock, et. al., have pumped so much damned $$$ into private/direct equity.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 7:13 am to stout
quote:
Which will wipe out a lot of equity people have built up.
I just don’t see this happening.
The rate of homes sold may slow down, but as long as demand is greater than supply(which we don’t see that changing any time soon), prices should remain somewhat constant.
In the meantime lots of potential homebuyers are stuck on the sideline. I would imagine that as soon as rates come back down a bit(in the next couple year) many of those people will jump back into the market and keep increasing the price of homes as demand continues to out pace supply.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 7:22 am to stout
Elections have consequences
Posted on 9/22/23 at 7:35 am to Yaboylsu63
quote:
I genuinely have no idea how people are buying homes right now.
Realtor told me almost all of his recent deals were for Millennials who Boomer parents tapped into flush retirement accounts to either put 50% down for little Johnny or Suzy or flat out paid cash.
Also, if rates do somehow drop back down to 5% from 7% all its going to do is cause another buyer frenzy which will make prices skyrocket and buyers have to pay X% over asking, waive inspections, etc to be able to buy a house. We are still woefully low on supply.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 7:51 am to damn_baw69
quote:
Elections have consequences
Multiple elections over the past 20 years have consequences.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:10 am to stout
Return to the 70s and 80s...double digit rates 12% to a high of 16%...those would knock the boogers out of one's nose
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:24 am to FLObserver
quote:
This argument is funny because what exactly was the price of the house you were purchasing? I get how younger people get angry at this statement. Oh back in the 80's and 90's my rate was at 10% but you also got to purchase a 2000 sq ft home for between 80k to 180k on avg. Today the rate is close to 8% on that 2000 sq ft house that will cost you between 300k to 400k
It's relative. I was making maybe $25k and the wife maybe $18k gross Vs what people start at today. It still was a substantial part of our income.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:35 am to Yaboylsu63
quote:
I genuinely have no idea how people are buying homes right now.
Family money/inheritance has to be part of it, I'm convinced.
Others are just taking on extremely high monthlies and living off credit cards.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:40 am to dakarx
quote:
Anyone sitting on an Adjustable Rate Mortgage right now has to be shifting kittens.
While I agree, but there shouldn't be many people with ARMs right now with the amount of low rate mortgages that were available from 2020 to 2022.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:41 am to wfallstiger
quote:
Return to the 70s and 80s...double digit rates 12% to a high of 16%
Would take that since values were 100k or less
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:48 am to slackster
quote:
Biden sucks and deserves a lot of blame, but a good chunk of this is also a global problem. OPEC cutting production multiple times is not exactly at the feet of Biden, for example.
A lot of the Covid hysteria caused this. Shutting the economy down and giving out stimulus checks was stupid and we are now paying for it
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:55 am to crash1211
quote:
It's relative. I was making maybe $25k and the wife maybe $18k gross Vs what people start at today. It still was a substantial part of our income.
Objectively, no, it is not relative. It is more difficult to afford a house now than ever. There is data backing this up.
Posted on 9/22/23 at 8:57 am to crash1211
quote:
It's relative. I was making maybe $25k and the wife maybe $18k gross Vs what people start at today. It still was a substantial part of our income.
now go google what 43k in 1990 would be worth in 2023
This post was edited on 9/22/23 at 8:58 am
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