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Chances Harbaugh fails at Michigan?

Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:26 pm
Posted by Smalls
Southern California
Member since Jul 2009
10245 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:26 pm
Assuming he takes the job. I put it at 60%. The UM people on here act like it's a guarantee that he'll resurrect the program. The possibility exists that he'll fail at Michigan and UM will be playing this same game again in four seasons. With the current state of college football, UM has a few inherent barriers to success:

1) Recruiting
Nationally, the BIG is considered weak, winters are extremely cold, and you have to recruit against Michigan State and Ohio State, and Notre Dame will always have a draw for some kids.

2) Urban at Ohio State
The dude is a great coach, he's got Ohio State rolling.

3) Resurgence of Michigan State.
It can't be beneficial to have your in-state rival as dominant as they have been.

4) Recent Suckage
Current recruits were BORN in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000. These kids grew up with a view of the Michigan program from roughly 2003 to the present. A nice season here or there, but hardly the perspective of their moms and dads.

Harbaugh's a good coach, but his chance of success at Michigan (averaging 10+ wins a year) is less than 50/50.

Just saying.
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
37000 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:33 pm to
Easily he is the best option for UM.

The recruiting stuff is just bullshite, he'll pull from MSU immediately and football isn't just played in warm temperatures. It's a terrible argument.

As far as his success, he's been successful everywhere he has coached. That doesn't guarantee anything though.
Posted by tom
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2007
8156 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:35 pm to
I really wonder if he is still willing to recruit. NFL coaching is a lot less taxing because there is no recruiting.

That's why I think he stays in the NFL regardless of whatever ridiculous money Michigan throws at him.
Posted by ScootiniTiger
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2007
2514 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:35 pm to
He is the best option for LSU
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
53288 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:36 pm to
It looks like Shane Morris stinks. Harbaugh probably couldn't get a good QB in for this year's recruiting class, even if he goes to Michigan next week. So, he would now have to recruit a guy who is a freshman in Harbaugh's second year, and probably doesn't develop for another year or two. That could be a problem.

He would destroy in recruiting. All he has to do is talk about the Super Bowl and NFC Championship games. Not even Saban and Meyer can do that.
This post was edited on 12/21/14 at 7:44 pm
Posted by Trublue
Member since Nov 2007
189 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:59 pm to
It is possible that Harbaugh could fail at Michigan. I think he averages 10 wins per season over the next 10-15 years and turns the program entirely around.

He is instantly a top 5 coach in college.
Michigan with him there would instantly be Michigan again and its not like they had trouble recruiting with Hoke there. He took stanford to top 10 program and never had a recruiting class ranked above 47. He would have top ten classes at Michigan if that gives you an idea of the kind of teams / programs he would be putting on the field.
Posted by Smalls
Southern California
Member since Jul 2009
10245 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:09 pm to
quote:

I think he averages 10 wins per season over the next 10-15 years and turns the program entirely around.



We'll see. I think his Stanford success was due in part to his pro-style offense (which was beneficial to the prototypical Stanford athlete) in a somewhat weak PAC10 where the majority of schools were running spread. His NFL success has been impressive, but not completely transferable to the college game.
Posted by hashtag
Comfy, AF
Member since Aug 2005
27480 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

I think his Stanford success was due in part to his pro-style offense
he signed a future NFL Hall of Famer at QB. Andrew Luck was a HUGE part of his success at Stanford. And Jim gets a lot of credit for that. He was close to signing Luck and Griffin III. That's incredible recruiting skills.
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18984 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

Harbaugh's a good coach, but his chance of success at Michigan (averaging 10+ wins a year) is less than 50/50.

Just saying.
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
155588 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:22 pm to
A lot contingent on the state of urbans ticker
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
119120 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:42 pm to
He's going to Oakland.
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
37000 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

He's going to Oakland.
Duh.

OP is just setting up UM faithful for the "Oh well, he wouldn't have done well here anyway" that is coming.
Posted by Superior Pariah
Member since Jun 2009
8457 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:13 pm to
100% chance he fails because he won't be going
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105405 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:14 pm to
Very minimal to no chance at all he fails. It would shock me. Sorry but if you can make a Stanford a success it will be several times easier at a UM.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98181 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

I really wonder if he is still willing to recruit. NFL coaching is a lot less taxing because there is no recruiting.


Recruiting is a grind, but the NFL is much more time-intensive. College coaches do have periods of down time at various points in the offseason. The NFL never stops.
Posted by auburnphan23
Member since Jan 2014
5862 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:16 pm to
There is chance he could fail because almost anything could happen. However, the realistic chances of him failing are far less than 50 percent. Dude is an awesome coach and his success in the NFL will get him tons of recruits. I personally believe he would own Urban. In fact, his hiring would probably give Urban more heart problems
Posted by Smalls
Southern California
Member since Jul 2009
10245 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:44 pm to
He was 28-21 at Stanford and had Andrew Luck. The UM faithful are envisioning the second coming of Saban, and I'm wanting to discuss the realistic possibility that we might be doing this again in 2018.
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
37000 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:53 pm to
quote:

He was 28-21 at Stanford and had Andrew Luck.
Stanford was 16 - 40 the 5 years prior to Harbaugh. Harbaugh only had Luck in 2009 and 2010.

Shaw had luck in 2011.

Don't let facts take away from your argument though, continue on.
Posted by auburnphan23
Member since Jan 2014
5862 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:55 pm to
You know Sanford had a losing record for at least the previous 4 or 5 years in a row prior to his arrival. This includes going 1-11 the year immediately before he arrived. His record was pretty damn good considering the complete dumpster fire he inherited
Posted by harmonics
Mars Hotel
Member since Jan 2010
18617 posts
Posted on 12/21/14 at 11:55 pm to
Depends on what your definition of fail is. I think Harbaugh could easily win 9-10 games a year at Michigan, but then he would be no better than Lloyd Carr. I think Michigan fans are looking for Pete Carrol/USC and Nick Saban/Alabama results. That is what Harbaugh is up against.
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