SLOVENIA ENGLAND
LICHTENSTEIN MOLDOVA
UKRAINE LUXEMBOURG
LITHUANIA SWITZERLAND
ESTONIA SAN MARINO
RUSSIA AUSTRIA
SLOVAKIA MACEDONIA
SWEDEN MONTENEGRO

BELARUS ~ SPAIN

A changing of the guard to celebrate Vicente del Bosque’s centenary in a match in which there are more strictures presumed for Spain than for their opponents. Belarus will take the fight to Borisov, where a stadium of just 14,000 supporters (the same number that jeered Gerard Piqué in Léon) awaits us and with a pitch that is less bumpy than expected, according to Toni Grande (the team trained in Minsk). The tickets, priced between €4 and €10, sold out days ago and the stands will be the armed wing of a national team that has taken note of Slovakia’s successful plan: Slovakia lead Spain to the mousetrap of Zilina, the country’s fifth city, and to a noisy stadium where Del Bosque suffered his only qualifying defeat in 36 matches.

We’ll see if Belarus catch us warned or distracted. Fifteen of those called up by Del Bosque have had between two and three weeks without competing, a dangerous disconnect ahead of a match that does not tolerate carelessness. They will not be in the XI. Those that remain from the time in which the sun never set for La Roja, ten World Cup players, will play, as well as Álvaro Morata, a starter at Juventus, where he has scored 15 goals with the imprint of a No.9 of fits and starts. He made his debut against Belarus, and his growth and Alcácer’s emergence coincide with a certain recovery in the area of goalscoring.

While qualifying for Euro 2008, Spain’s goalscoring average was 1.91 strikes per match; ahead of the 2010 World Cup it was 2.8 goals per match. That figure rose to 3.25 goals per game on the road to Euro 2012, but it dropped to 1.75 goals per match before the 2014 World Cup. So far, during this Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, Spain have averaged 2.8 goals per game. That indicator will be clung to. And the absence of Andrés Iniesta, to be overcome.

Isco to the bench. It appears as though Isco, who was a song of hope against the same opponents back in November, will not play. Casillas will rack up his 162nd appearance with Spain, where for him there has never been a winter. Piqué will start, and the cool wind of playing away from home will suit him. Time will pass and the relief will come because he annoyed Madrid and not his country. If he lacked commitment he would be walking on the island that Shakira bought in the Bahamas right now or he would have missed out in León on account of some discomfort. There is no better partner for Sergio Ramos.

Belarus are a well-known enemy. We have seen them three times in three years (with the first, in 2012, there was no TV coverage and we missed a Pedro hat-trick) and they have seemed like three centuries. They have twice changed their coach, without success, and now they have put themselves in the hands of Alexandr Jatskevich, a former Dinamo Minsk and Dinamo Kiev player who has only presided over three matches in charge: a win in Macedonia, a draw with Gabon and a defeat against Russia (4-2). They have also climbed 26 places in the FIFA rankings since November and they have recovered their most well-known footballer, the former Barcelona midfielder Alexander Hleb. He was not to the taste of the former coach Andrey Zygmantovich but he is liked by Jatskevich. All of their players, with the exception of five, play in their domestic league or in Russia. They have never played in a World Cup or a European Championship and it seems like they will not qualify for a major tournament this time too. Jatskevich says that the level would improve with Spanish coaches. I hope the flattery is not a trap-door.

This post was edited on 6/14/15 at 11:46 am