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re: US economy grew at fast 5 pct. annual rate in Q3, best in 11 years
Posted on 12/23/14 at 1:43 pm to deltaland
Posted on 12/23/14 at 1:43 pm to deltaland
quote:
And Bush isn't to blame for the crash in 08. The subprime mortgage crash falls on Clinton and then Congress not acting even after Bush urged them numerous times to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Clinton does get a large part of the blame, as does easy money from the fed.
The only thing Bush did that would have impacted the crisis is destroying the clinton surplus. If we had a reasonable deficit situation in 2008, we would have had much more flexibility when responding to the crisis. Obviously the next president will have the same baggage during the next crisis.
quote:
The student loan bubble will be the next one.
Its already in early stages of popping. Won't be near as nasty as housing though.
1
Posted on 12/23/14 at 1:43 pm to deltaland
quote:
A GOP president could do wonders in 2016 by undoing Obamas executive orders for EPA regulations
Not just EPA. General Biz Con would be unleashed. Growth would by dynamic.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 2:35 pm to BobBoucher
Some people are really simple minded. This growth translated means the ponzi scheme is growing and dolts are excited. All that is left now is waiting for the top guys to exit stage left with all the money.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 2:45 pm to Zach
quote:
A GOP president could do wonders in 2016 by undoing Obamas executive orders for EPA regulations
Not just EPA. General Biz Con would be unleashed. Growth would by dynamic.
Some of these may be unecessary, but id bet that most regulations are. Business has zero interest in protecting the environment. If we can lead the world in economy and have the cleanest land, water, and air, that is one hell of an achievement and im all for it. of course there has to be a balance.
This post was edited on 12/23/14 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:05 pm to deltaland
quote:"Clinton did it" still, eh?
And Bush isn't to blame for the crash in 08. The subprime mortgage crash falls on Clinton and then Congress not acting even after Bush urged them numerous times to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:06 pm to a want
Historically speaking you would take option B. Option A would be correctly recognized as far too slow a recovery.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:18 pm to Jake88
quote:
Historically speaking you would take option B. Option A would be correctly recognized as far too slow a recovery.
I always regret posting on this board... but oh well...
This is not true, since historically you are comparing post 2008 to other recent recoveries which is missing a very important parameter. This is a recovery from a deep financial crisis, which completely changes the context of the data you need to look at. Compared to other recoveries following financial crises' historically, accounting for magnitude, this recovery has been pretty good. Regulation has somewhat strangled the recovery, but it was a strangle that even most within the industry believe was necessary as it was evident that previous regulation was not sufficient, although various line item points can and have been strongly debated.
The only thing I agree with in this thread is the notion that people give WAY too much credit and/or criticism to the president for the state of the economy.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:23 pm to FT
There are some significant fiscal issues that the Obama administration has ignored or just made worse. The can has been kicked down the road for someone else to clean up.
The economy NEEDS 5% growth to make up the GDP Gap (difference between potential and actual GDP). Employment must improve.
The Federal government NEEDS the economy to grow for tax revenue. However, I doubt that any serious fiscal discipline will happen. Obama-care is a bubble waiting to burst. Spending is far out pacing revenues. That huge deficit that ballooned during the past 8 year - credit/blame either Obama, Bush or the FED - will have to be paid back. Monetizing this monster is not a serious solution.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:24 pm to Hawkeye95
Well to be fair the Cljnton surplus was destroyed by the war on terror which initially was not Bushs fault. Where he fricked up was invading Iraq and doubling the cost of war. Had he stayed out of there, our deficit would have been manageable and his presidency would have looked 5x better.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:26 pm to deltaland
quote:
Obama had little to do with this.
That's fine but you can't then turn around and blame him for every little thing that goes wrong around the world.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:27 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Keynesians on this board were saying that the sequester spending cuts were going to ruin the economy.
Look what happened.
Gridlock has restrained government spending. Rex, Obama, DS, etc said it was harmful.
Look what happened.
Look what happened.
Gridlock has restrained government spending. Rex, Obama, DS, etc said it was harmful.
Look what happened.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:29 pm to BobBoucher
The balance exists where we have clean air and our manufacturing and energy production continues to profit and operate.
They've gone too far in trying to shut down coal and in addition regulations are causing some areas of manufacturing to outsource overseas due to high overhead costs from constant new regs and red tape to overcome. When it starts destroying business, it's too much.
I've long believed we should deregulate to bring back coal to lower electricity costs, then place a tax on electricity and use that revenue to improve our weak power grid and make it more efficient along with investing in green energy research for the future to find ways to make it efficient compared to coal. That way we use our cheapest natural resource, while trying to prepare for the future
They've gone too far in trying to shut down coal and in addition regulations are causing some areas of manufacturing to outsource overseas due to high overhead costs from constant new regs and red tape to overcome. When it starts destroying business, it's too much.
I've long believed we should deregulate to bring back coal to lower electricity costs, then place a tax on electricity and use that revenue to improve our weak power grid and make it more efficient along with investing in green energy research for the future to find ways to make it efficient compared to coal. That way we use our cheapest natural resource, while trying to prepare for the future
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:30 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Keynesians on this board were saying that the sequester spending cuts were going to ruin the economy.
Look what happened.
Gridlock has restrained government spending. Rex, Obama, DS, etc said it was harmful.
Look what happened.
Those kinds of discussions are fine. I'm all for an adult conversation on the issues.
What I have a problem with is the attitude of let's blame Obama for anything and everything up to and including Ebola, but when the economy improves it's "other factors".
Just be consistent and intellectually honest. That shouldn't be too much to ask.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:33 pm to BobBoucher
LOL, why don't you pass a law saying every family in America HAS to buy a new car worth at least $20,000, if they don't they get fined several thousand dollars,and then a year later pat yourself on the back because you grew the economy. Same thing.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 3:48 pm to deltaland
Clinton surplus was a result of higher taxes and cutting defense. Non-defense spending grew. Those programs are still with us today.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 4:04 pm to BobBoucher
Would it be fair to say it would have grown at 8% if it werent for Obama?
Its just a question, you know, since it would have been so much worse a few years ago without him and all.
Its just a question, you know, since it would have been so much worse a few years ago without him and all.
Posted on 12/28/14 at 8:22 am to BobBoucher
quote:
US economy grew at fast 5 pct. annual rate in Q3, best in 11 years
tl;dr - No, it didn't.
non-tl;dr - It's a bit complex but basically it boils down to the Obama administration withholding what people have been having to spend due to the ACA from Q1 and shifting it to Q3 and calling it "personal consumption" (how wonderfully generic).
Zerohedge predicted something like this back in June after looking over the Q1 numbers, they just thought it would be added to Q2, not Q3.
quote:
between the second and final revision of Q1 GDP something dramatic happened: instead of contributing $40 billion to real GDP in Q1, Obamacare magically ended up subtracting $6.4 billion from GDP.
Don't worry thought: this is actually great news! Because the brilliant propaganda minds at the Dept of Commerce figured out something banks also realized with the stub "kitchen sink" quarter in November 2008. Namely, since Q1 is a total loss in GDP terms, let's just remove Obamacare spending as a contributor to Q1 GDP and just shove it in Q2.
Stated otherwise, some $40 billion in PCE that was supposed to boost Q1 GDP will now be added to Q2-Q4.
And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).
So 5% GDP wasn't really a Christmas miracle, it was just number-futzing.
quote:
As noted before, between the second revision of the Q3 GDP number and its final print, Personal Consumption increased from 2.2% to 3.2% Q/Q, and ended up contributing 2.21% of the final 4.96% GDP amount, up from 1.51%.
So what did Americans supposedly spend so much more on compared to the previous revision released one month ago? Was it cars? Furnishings? Housing and Utilities? Recreational Goods and RVs? Or maybe nondurable goods and financial services?
Actually no. The answer, just as we predicted precisely 6 months ago is... well, just see for yourselves.
In short, two-thirds of the "boost" to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the "polar vortex" crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this "growth dry powder" for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.
So while the economy did grow in Q3, it wasn't anything close to what's being reported and the lion's share of the extra amount is spending that people are forced to do by the ACA. Sooo... yay for government-forced GDP growth?
This post was edited on 12/28/14 at 8:44 am
Posted on 12/28/14 at 9:10 am to FT
quote:US GDP per Capita:quote:Nowadays when something good happens, Republicans just say it didn't.
US economy grew at fast 5 pct. annual rate in Q3, best in 11 years
Sure it did...
2012 - $44440.16
2013 - $45341.73
2014 - $45863.02
So I broke out my Common Core Math Numbersticks. It appears US Economic Growth was 1.1% in FY2014.
If 1.1% = 5%, the OP might be correct.
Posted on 12/28/14 at 9:12 am to Bard
So...Obama and Company lied again?
Posted on 12/28/14 at 10:12 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
NC_Tigah
That's close to what Zerohedge is claiming (1.7%). Nothing to write home about when we would normally (at this point in a recovery) be doing 3-5%. Just another indicator of how sluggish the economy is. I expect Q4 to look a little better due to the drop in oil price, but not by much as it really hasn't had a chance to trickle down (libs love that term) to the rest of the market yet. If the price at the pump stays around $2/gal into the Spring, we should see prices dropping by then and a good Summer. But then again, I have been of the belief (and stated it a few times here) that the Saudis will ramp their prices up before Summer with Russia's economy dropping faster than Dustin Diamond's acting career.
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