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Message
re: UK report shows almost 2/3 of Delta deaths were vaccinated
Posted on 8/25/21 at 8:42 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 8/25/21 at 8:42 pm to WeeWee
You are wrong. From the report! Page 11
These are the cases. This isn't a pick and choose. These are the cases that came into their NHS Emergeny System.
So your real issue is your math is not talking the unvaccinated into dying and going into the hospital.
I'm reading, as I always do... the report. So stop with the writer of the article.
Why not look at every case like this report is?
You have no point because the point you are trying to make is not happening:
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards...
These are the cases. This isn't a pick and choose. These are the cases that came into their NHS Emergeny System.
So your real issue is your math is not talking the unvaccinated into dying and going into the hospital.
quote:
It is the way the data is being portrayed to the readers that is wrong.
I'm reading, as I always do... the report. So stop with the writer of the article.
quote:
If you look at the mortality rate for each subpopulation you will see that the mortality rate
Why not look at every case like this report is?
You have no point because the point you are trying to make is not happening:
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards...
1
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:00 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Yes this does help show us that we can vaccinate our way out of this mess when the correct metric is used to report the data.
no not really, the WuFlu hasn’t burned its way thru the unjabbed yet. Once that’s happened and real natural immunity kicks in we’ll have a better picture
Well then you better get used to even more extreme measures. There are roughly 90 million unvaccinated Americans and the USA has been averaging 2,000,000 new covid cases per month. So it will take another 4 years to go through the unvaccinated.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:10 pm to Landmass
1) most of their population above 50 is vaccinated.
2) Based on this very data, you are more than 3 times as likely to die above the age of 50 if you are unvaccinated than if you are you full vaccinated.
This doesn't support any of your argument in any way.
Further, under 50, the unvaccinated make up 62%+ of the infected while fully vaccinated make up less than 11%.
Look at deaths under 50 and 70% are unvaccinated.
2) Based on this very data, you are more than 3 times as likely to die above the age of 50 if you are unvaccinated than if you are you full vaccinated.
This doesn't support any of your argument in any way.
Further, under 50, the unvaccinated make up 62%+ of the infected while fully vaccinated make up less than 11%.
Look at deaths under 50 and 70% are unvaccinated.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:16 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
oklahogjr
Trump isn't President any more.
Yet he's still living rent free in your head.
Seek help. TDS may be incurable, but can be managed and you won't come across as such a complete douche.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:21 pm to Landmass
Is anyone else reporting this besides Chris Waldburger? What is the source of his data?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:22 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
2) Based on this very data, you are more than 3 times as likely to die above the age of 50 if you are unvaccinated than if you are you full vaccinated.
No no. This is every case from Feb1 to Aug 2! Every case
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards
You can not inject phantom numbers that are not occuring. It's what is entering their NHS Emergency Department system.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:24 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Well then you better get used to even more extreme measures. There are roughly 90 million unvaccinated Americans and the USA has been averaging 2,000,000 new covid cases per month. So it will take another 4 years to go through the unvaccinated.
No need for extreme measures. That's just stupid to do.
It's time to start treating it like the flu.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:25 pm to Chicken
quote:
Is anyone else reporting this besides Chris Waldburger? What is the source of his data?
Hey Chicken. Yes. It's on the UK Gov website.
LINK
This is the title and it's a pdf
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: technical briefing 20
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:28 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
You are wrong
No sir or madam, you are the one who is wrong.
quote:
These are the cases. This isn't a pick and choose.
I did not pick and choose. I used the numbers reported in table 5 and divided them by their corresponding subpopulations.
quote:
So your real issue is your math is not talking the unvaccinated into dying and going into the hospital.
No the real issue is that you fail to grasp is that unvaccinated adults in the UK are being hospitalized at rate approximately 2x higher than vaccinated adults in the UK and unvaccinated adults are dying at a rate that is approximately 2x higher the rate of vaccinated adults in the UK.
quote:
It is the way the data is being portrayed to the readers that is wrong.
I'm reading, as I always do... the report.
Your reading is not the problem. It is your understanding and application of the data that is the issue.
quote:
So stop with the writer of the article.
Why? You responded to the post where I called the OP's post disinformation. The OP quoted the author of the article. So the author of the article in the OP's link is the one who presented the information to be misinterpreted by people who read it and do not understand it.
quote:
Why not look at every case like this report is?
Have you ever read a case report or case series (which is how the information would be reported if we were to look at each case)? This report does not look at each case because if it did then it would be a heck of a lot longer than 44 pages.
quote:
You have no point because the point you are trying to make is not happening:
Well one of us is an MD who has spent the entire pandemic reading research, interpreting medical literature, and applying it by treating pts with COVID-19, and the other one believed that Powell was actually going to release the Kraken and fell for the BS that Lin Woods was saying.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:34 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Well then you better get used to even more extreme measures. There are roughly 90 million unvaccinated Americans and the USA has been averaging 2,000,000 new covid cases per month. So it will take another 4 years to go through the unvaccinated.
No need for extreme measures.
I agree with you here. There is no need for extreme measures, but just because there is no need for it doesn't mean that our wise elected officials won't try to implement them.
quote:
That's just stupid to do.
Since when has stupidity ever stopped our elected officials from doing something?
quote:
It's time to start treating it like the flu.
You mean you want us to treat this like the flu? The flu? The virus that we get vaccines for and then get another vaccine (aka a booster) when the virus has mutated and becomes resistant to the antibodies produced by the previous vaccine?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:42 pm to Landmass
From these statistics, without taking anything else into consideration:
Fully vaccinated death rate <50 (13/25,536 = 0.0005, or 0.05%)
Uncavinated death rate <50 (48/147,612 = 0.0003 or 0.03%)
Fully vaccinated death rate >50 (389/21,472 = 0.0181 or 1.81%)
Unvaccinated death rate >50 (205/3,440 = 0.0596 or 5.96%)
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
It also does not account for any particular risk factors- IE, you don't know if the under 50s who were vaccinated are diabetic, obese, one-armed, transgendered, indigent, IQ <60, Auburn fans, etc.
The statement showing that 2/3 the deaths were vaccinated is extremely true. The rates at which the over 50 unvaccinated crowd died is sort of glossed over in that statement, though.
The shown stat of "The vaccinated under 50 die at a rate 1.6x the unvaccinated" does not tell the story of how the vaccinated diabetic vs unvaccinated diabetic does. The comparison of a vaccinated guy with a BMI of 60 to the unvaccinated 18-year old professional soccer player is also not particularly useful when trying to understand the role of vaccination, other than to maybe say that there does not appear to be a huge role in vaccinating the <50, healthy crowd.
ETA: death rate of 6% in the >50 crowd also makes me very skeptical of the risk of bias in the sampling, because that is an awfully high mortality rate for that general crowd, unless most of them were fairly unhealthy and quite older than 50.
Fully vaccinated death rate <50 (13/25,536 = 0.0005, or 0.05%)
Uncavinated death rate <50 (48/147,612 = 0.0003 or 0.03%)
Fully vaccinated death rate >50 (389/21,472 = 0.0181 or 1.81%)
Unvaccinated death rate >50 (205/3,440 = 0.0596 or 5.96%)
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
It also does not account for any particular risk factors- IE, you don't know if the under 50s who were vaccinated are diabetic, obese, one-armed, transgendered, indigent, IQ <60, Auburn fans, etc.
The statement showing that 2/3 the deaths were vaccinated is extremely true. The rates at which the over 50 unvaccinated crowd died is sort of glossed over in that statement, though.
The shown stat of "The vaccinated under 50 die at a rate 1.6x the unvaccinated" does not tell the story of how the vaccinated diabetic vs unvaccinated diabetic does. The comparison of a vaccinated guy with a BMI of 60 to the unvaccinated 18-year old professional soccer player is also not particularly useful when trying to understand the role of vaccination, other than to maybe say that there does not appear to be a huge role in vaccinating the <50, healthy crowd.
ETA: death rate of 6% in the >50 crowd also makes me very skeptical of the risk of bias in the sampling, because that is an awfully high mortality rate for that general crowd, unless most of them were fairly unhealthy and quite older than 50.
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:48 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Have you ever read a case report or case series (which is how the information would be reported if we were to look at each case)? This report does not look at each case because if it did then it would be a heck of a lot longer than 44 pages.
Yes it does.
Again... page 11
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards
Every case.
quote:
Well one of us is an MD who has spent the entire pandemic reading research, interpreting medical literature, and applying it by treating pts with COVID-19
Well Doc, you are wrong. Each report show the number of case and they have grown and they are telling you that it is all the cases.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:49 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
No no. This is every case from Feb1 to Aug 2! Every case
No it is not. Table 5 which you love to cite says that were a total of 670 deaths from Delta in the 6 months from 02/01/2021 to 08/02/2021. However, if there were only 670 deaths over 6 months then delta would be a nonissue. You do not need to be an MD to understand that.
ETA: Please read page 3 of the report and then compare it to the title of Table 5.
quote:
the proportion of cases sequenced and genotyped remains relatively low but
has started to recover as case numbers fall and capacity expands
quote:
Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths of confirmed and provisional Delta cases in England by vaccination status
(1 February 2021 to 2 August 2021)
Table 5 only includes cases in which a specimen has been collected and successfully genotyped (aka confirmed as a covid delta case). As the summary says that remains a low percentage of cases. This data does not include all COVID cases in the UK or even England in the last 6 months. Because if it did delta covid would be a nonissue if there were only 300,000 cases, 5,000 hospitalizations, and 742 deaths in 6 months in England. This report is a technical briefing on a sample of the cases in England.
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 10:09 pm
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:49 pm to Hopeful Doc
quote:
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
No it does not.
It shows every case they have had that enter their NHS Emergency system and were diagnosed with Covid.
Stop injecting numbers that don't exist.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 10:04 pm to WeeWee
quote:
No it is not. Table 5 which you love to cite says that were a total of 670 deaths from Delta in the 6 months from 02/01/2021 to 08/02/2021. However, if there were only 670 deaths over 6 months then delta would be a nonissue.
NHS Emergency Department.
They are tracking every case that comes through the NHS Emergency Department.
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards
They did not say this was a tracking of anything other than the NHS Emergency Department.
Are suggesting that all unvaccinated people are going to other places?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 10:08 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
No it is not. Table 5 which you love to cite says that were a total of 670 deaths from Delta in the 6 months from 02/01/2021 to 08/02/2021. However, if there were only 670 deaths over 6 months then delta would be a nonissue.
NHS Emergency Department.
They are tracking every case that comes through the NHS Emergency Department.
quote:
Tables 4 and 5 show the number of cases who visited an NHS Emergency Department, were admitted, and died in any setting. The data is shown from 1 February 2021 onwards
They did not say this was a tracking of anything other than the NHS Emergency Department.
Are suggesting that all unvaccinated people are going to other places?
Please read where I edited my previous post to show you the error of your ways.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 10:21 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
No it does not.
It shows every case they have had that enter their NHS Emergency system and were diagnosed with Covid.
Stop injecting numbers that don't exist.
They do exist.
Understanding them is paramount.
Else you may look like a fool when you try to explain your understanding of them to two people who know how to interpret them.
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