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EthanL
LSU Fan
Auburn,AL
Member since Oct 2011
3849 posts

UE numbers look promising

Private Sector alone added 215,000 jobs. Couple that with all the Tax incentives retained by the Fiscal Cliff deal, and the 2013 may be the big rebound we need. Full UE number due out tomorrow.

Per NPR news


acgeaux129
USA Fan
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
15011 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
The median ue rate will likely be around 8% on the year, if not "hire."


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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
30885 posts
Online

re: UE numbers look promising
That's the ADP number. The ADP number is not always indicative of the "official" BLS U3 number.

Image: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/7/8/901700-13101287021536-Erik-Dellith_origin.jpg


Furthermore, initial claims of 372k today was a miss on the expected number of 362k.

But hey, look on the bright side, as people are forced to come off the unemployment rolls and give up looking for work they no longer get counted and the U3 number will improve.

Is an improving U3 number indicative of an improving economy? No, not always. Participation rate, GDP and velocity combined tell a better picture of the economy than just the U3 number.


anc
Member since Nov 2012
3872 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
Seasonal holiday employment?


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EthanL
LSU Fan
Auburn,AL
Member since Oct 2011
3849 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
So what's the single best indicator, on a monthly basis, of economic improvement in this country? The Stock market? Walmart Sales/profits?


CITWTT
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Sep 2005
31765 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
Food stamp usage, and UE benefits numbers will tell a whole lot about the truth.


constant cough
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
44176 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

Food stamp usage, and UE benefits numbers will tell a whole lot about the truth.


Don't forget the disability checks.


Forward!


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GALSUtiger
LSU Fan
Snellville, Georgia
Member since Aug 2006
738 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
I personally believe the participation rate is the most important number, because when people are trying to get jobs even if there low paying, it means they have faith in whats happening in the market place.

The other numbers are junk in my opinion!!


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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
59260 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

So what's the single best indicator, on a monthly basis, of economic improvement in this country? The Stock market? Walmart Sales/profits?

U6


Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
90248 posts including my alters
Member since Jun 2005
19171 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

So what's the single best indicator, on a monthly basis, of economic improvement in this country? The Stock market? Walmart Sales/profits?


I'd start with asking the questions that UE requires:

1- Are you able and available to work?
2- Did you work?

If yes, unemployment rate goes down.

If no, unemployment rate goes up.

That question should be asked of all US inhabitants between the ages of 18 and 65.

Simple, solved.

This post was edited on 1/3 at 10:38 am


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EthanL
LSU Fan
Auburn,AL
Member since Oct 2011
3849 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
Educate me NC Tigah


GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
30885 posts
Online

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

So what's the single best indicator, on a monthly basis, of economic improvement in this country? The Stock market? Walmart Sales/profits?


The bottom line indicator is tax revenues to the treasury with all things being equal. That's the way business's view things. Increased revenue = good, decreased revenue = bad. If revenues decrease then policies need to be adjusted/changed. Note, increasing taxes does not always = increased revenue to the treasury. Policy makers need to find that Goldilocks policy where tax and regulatory policy maximize economic growth weighted against other factors such as defense, safety, environmental regulation, etc.

ETA: historical federal tax receipts. We are still below 2008 tax receipt levels. We had ~$2.525T in 2008 and "they" are estimating ~$2.47T for 2012. When adjusted for inflation we are even further behind the 2008 peak. It's going to take ~10 years to work our way out of the "Great Recession" (especially when inflation adjusted).
This post was edited on 1/3 at 10:56 am


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TOPAL
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
958 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
Hell, what number to believe, so much deceiving.


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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
59260 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

Educate me NC Tigah
Problem with U3 UE is it doesn't count certain groups and over counts others. i.e., In May '09 the percentage of graduating college seniors unable to find work was the highest in US history -- higher than in the Great Depression.
Not one of those were counted in U3 numbers.

Likewise folks desperate for a paycheck who take parttime jobs or jobs well beneath paygrade disappear from U3. Counted in U6, not in U3.

Good U6 = Economic Improvement


This post was edited on 1/3 at 11:40 am


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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27849 posts

re: UE numbers look promising
quote:

Private Sector alone added 215,000 jobs. Couple that with all the Tax incentives retained by the Fiscal Cliff deal, and the 2013 may be the big rebound we need. Full UE number due out tomorrow.

as usual, silly liberal only provided half the information.
lets wait and see what the U6 number is

eta: damn you NC
This post was edited on 1/3 at 11:14 am


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