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re: Trump wants to cancel order for new Air Force One. Why?

Posted on 12/7/16 at 1:52 am to
Posted by AUin02
Member since Jan 2012
4281 posts
Posted on 12/7/16 at 1:52 am to
quote:

boeing's shares to crater


Market watch shows Boeing closed 12/5 at 152.24, closed 12/6 at 152.02. That's a -.14% shift for the day. Not even 2 tenths of a percent for the day. For comparison, DJIA was +.18% for the day.

quote:

The budgeted costs for the replacement program are $2.87 billion for the fiscal years 2015 through 2021, just on research and development, testing and evaluation, according to budget documents seen by Reuters.


So that doesn't even include purchase price.

quote:

A March 2016 report from the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, estimated the cost of the overall program at $3.21 billion, including the purchase of two aircraft.


So GAO has them at 1.6 billion per aircraft on delivery, and that's 8 years before the projected delivery date.

quote:

But the GAO estimated the costs for research and development would be lower, at just under $2 billion. If the GAO report used the same Air Force estimate for research and development, then its estimate would be around $4 billion.


Reuters

Oops, nope. Looks like Trump hit the $4 billion number on the nose. So we're at a 2 billion per plane estimate, 8 years prior to delivery.

So we're talking 2.87 billion budgeted for R&D costs, and based on Reuters estimating $4 billion total cost, we're talking a total purchase cost of 1.13 billion, or 565 million per plane.

People have been tossing around the 370 million number for the commercial version of the 747-8, so figure it's an extra 195 million for all the bells and whistles. Where we get raped is the R&D costs, and unless Boeing is completely reinventing the communication/air defense/toiletry systems then I don't see where that massive 2.87 billion is going. I mean, the airframe itself is already a proven quantity. There are tons of proven communication/air defense/radar systems already in use out there.
This post was edited on 12/7/16 at 1:54 am
Posted by vtdad
WV side of Bluefield,WV
Member since Dec 2009
1000 posts
Posted on 12/7/16 at 7:54 am to
Airforce One is basically a flying White House. It has tons of security equipment installed as well as it's own self defense system. If attacked in the air, this sucker can and will shoot back. There's a great documentary on I think History channel or maybe Discovery, covering just how well Airforce One is equipped for almost anything at any time. ANd YES, there's two of them. Always a decoy, even Marine One, the Helicopter the President travels in. There's 3 of them. 2 decoys and the one his is really in.
Posted by Wally Sparks
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2013
29166 posts
Posted on 12/7/16 at 8:18 am to
quote:

ANd YES, there's two of them. Always a decoy


There's two of them because one is a backup.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 12/7/16 at 11:15 am to
quote:

Where we get raped is the R&D costs
"Raped" eh? R&D is the bulk of the cost of almost any short-run item. How do people not understand this?
quote:

unless Boeing is completely reinventing the communication/air defense/toiletry systems
Not reinventing, but heavily modifying, hardening, fitting, and testing.
quote:

I don't see where that massive 2.87 billion is going
It's really not that massive. I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing breaks even on the project.
quote:

I mean, the airframe itself is already a proven quantity.
Except it has to accommodate tons of gear that the commercial version doesn't.
quote:

There are tons of proven communication/air defense/radar systems already in use out there.
You can't just toss these systems into a plane that wasn't designed to use them and call it a day.

They are designing the most custom, most secure, and most connected plane in the world. $3billion for R&D actually sounds like a bargain.
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