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The political costs of today vote. What are the chances it flips the House/Senate
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:25 pm
There are 23 districts with Republican Congressman that Hillary won in 2016. 14 of those voted for the AHCA. Unless the Dems completely screw up those seats are likely to flip in 2018.
27 Republicans who voted for the AHCA won their last election by less than 15 points. Those guys could be in danger if this becomes law.
The Wildcard is if this thing ever becomes law which is still a long shot. Voters are much less likely to care about this vote if the bill never becomes law.
Special shoutout to wildman Rep David Valadao (R) of California. His district went for Clinton by 16% and he's voted with the President 100% so far. Dude is brave. I'll give him that.
27 Republicans who voted for the AHCA won their last election by less than 15 points. Those guys could be in danger if this becomes law.
The Wildcard is if this thing ever becomes law which is still a long shot. Voters are much less likely to care about this vote if the bill never becomes law.
Special shoutout to wildman Rep David Valadao (R) of California. His district went for Clinton by 16% and he's voted with the President 100% so far. Dude is brave. I'll give him that.
This post was edited on 5/4/17 at 3:30 pm
29
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:27 pm to Haughton99
NYT doom and gloom. Sounds familiar.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:28 pm to Haughton99
quote:
What are the chances it flips the House/Senate
House? 10%
Senate? <1%
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:29 pm to Haughton99
NYT is assuming that this thing actually passes and becomes law.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:29 pm to roadGator
quote:
NYT doom and gloom. Sounds familiar.
The charts just shows facts. How is that doom and gloom?
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:30 pm to Haughton99
None.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:30 pm to Haughton99
quote:
The charts just shows facts. How is that doom and gloom?
Do they show a Dem chart?
Didn't think so.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:31 pm to Haughton99
quote:
What are the chances it flips the House/Senate
House is a better chance then senate
historically the party in power loses midterm seats
however, the 25 dems(23 dems 2 indi that caucus with dems) are up for re-election in 2018 and only 9 repubs, so odds are repubs keep senate
EDIT: of these races 12 are considered competitive as of now, 10 dem seats and 2 repub seats..... even if repubs louse all the competitive seats its still a 50/50 tie
This post was edited on 5/4/17 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:31 pm to udtiger
quote:
None.
You think the Dems thought the same thing when Obamacare passed?
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:32 pm to Haughton99
Very little chance in '18. Decent chance in '20.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:32 pm to Haughton99
It's an uphill battle in both houses. Gerrymandering heavily favors Republicans in the House.
It's just a bad year for D's in the Senate races.
They won't win both houses, and I'd put their chances at winning the House a little higher than the Senate. Still pretty low though.
It's just a bad year for D's in the Senate races.
They won't win both houses, and I'd put their chances at winning the House a little higher than the Senate. Still pretty low though.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:33 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Do they show a Dem chart?
Didn't think so.
What? No Dems voted for the bill. Why would they. That's a stupid question.
I'm pretty sure voting against a bill with popularity in the teens isnt going to threaten their seats.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:33 pm to Haughton99
Before we deem it a failure changing the Congressional land scape, shouldn't we:
A) let's see what we end up with when it's done
B) see if it will actually lower costs and help grow small business
Just a thought.
A) let's see what we end up with when it's done
B) see if it will actually lower costs and help grow small business
Just a thought.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:35 pm to Haughton99
Lowering the cost of insurance.. actually making it affordable. Why would someone not be in favor of it?
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:36 pm to Haughton99
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:36 pm to Haughton99
I think it flips the House, the Senate is tough geographically (it likely flips in the 2020 wave).
I also don't the think the Senate is dumb enough to bring this to a vote unless McConnell wants to make a point about how dumb the bill is when it goes down 72-28 or whatever.
I also don't the think the Senate is dumb enough to bring this to a vote unless McConnell wants to make a point about how dumb the bill is when it goes down 72-28 or whatever.
This post was edited on 5/4/17 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:36 pm to bamarep
quote:
A) let's see what we end up with when it's done
Maybe congress should have done that before rushing a vote.
quote:
B) see if it will actually lower costs and help grow small business
They don't even claim that it lowers costs. That wasn't a goal.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:38 pm to wickowick
Who posted a poll? I posted a chart that shows the House R's actual margin of victory and how they voted today.
Sorry you didn't understand.
Sorry you didn't understand.
Posted on 5/4/17 at 3:39 pm to Haughton99
2018 Senate race has 23 dems and 8 repubs up for re-election (and comrade Bernie and another (I) from Maine but that's moot). It's almost guaranteed to swing even more republican. Now the 2020 Senate race is a different story but that's a ways away.
In the house the dems will make up some ground almost guaranteed, and the gap will be smaller than it's been in a while, but I don't see them taking it.
In the house the dems will make up some ground almost guaranteed, and the gap will be smaller than it's been in a while, but I don't see them taking it.
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