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Started By
Message
Putin's Tough Choice: China or the West
Posted on 2/9/17 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 2/9/17 at 2:50 pm
2
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:10 pm to Stingray
Interesting article about the bargaining chips on the table the West has to use against Russia: sanctions and Crimea. Also mentions that the West might use this to get Russia to help us isolate Iran, in addition to the fact that Iran is Russia's main energy competitor. Oil prices don't look to be improving soon, so the West might be a better ally to Russia than the Chinese.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:10 pm to Stingray
They key situation is what Iran will do in response. The source of the Russian-Iran split might be whether Assad will be the ruler of post-war Syria. Russia I think wants to play it both ways. The key for the Iranians is that Assad stays in power rather than a power sharing agreement. Russia can take Assad or leave him. I know Trump and many warhawks want to expressly isolate Iran and can't do it without Russian acquiescence. In this sense I can see the West giving up a lot more than Crimea. They might have to give up Eastern Europe as a whole. That is how much I think it will take for Russia to give up Iran.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:13 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
They might have to give up Eastern Europe as a whole
You're not saying NATO countries, right?
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:19 pm to Stingray
Mostly I mean Macedonia and Ukraine, as well as moving missle systems from Romania, a government whom the Russians consider Russophobic. The Balkan situation also seems like it could possibly be a point of contention. My ultimate point is that given the ultimate goal is the isolation of Iran, I think Russia can ask for more than just Crimea.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:28 pm to crazy4lsu
So 2017 Ukraine = 1938 Czechoslovakia.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:29 pm to crazy4lsu
I guess the point of the article for me is, how long does oil stay depressed, and could this make Russia acquiesce for less.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 3:46 pm to Stingray
I think the article pits an illusory choice about the west and China. Russia would do well to work with both. The geopolitical lynchpin is Iran.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 4:02 pm to crazy4lsu
I am interested to hear more of your thoughts, or point me toward an article, if you can.
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