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1
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:33 am to BamaAtl
quote:
Ossoff spent $6M. Republicans spent double that against him (every ad here was either pro- or anti-Ossoff - very few were pro-Republican candidate X or Y).
It's not that hard of a concept, why are you confused?
I'm not confused at all. What an odd thing to say. What i am saying, is that Ossoff outspent his head to head by a massive amount and couldn't crack 50%. That's not good.
I'm also saying, that Ossoff won't crack 40% come time for the election, and you won't be here to comment on it.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:33 am to buckeye_vol
quote:baseball isn't a national election...this whole 3:1 odds argument is so tiresome. those are good odds in the Kentucky derby.
The percentage he gave Trump as winning were about the same as a typical baseball player getting a hit. So if he gave Trump "no chance," then I guess those hitters have no chance of getting a hit, right?
the results were embarrassing for him...period. what he does is not useful and not as accurate as he would have you believe. there are unfolding sets of dynamics and he relies on pollsters to capture that and seeing as how he grades pollsters...he is not without big ropes of jizz all over his face.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:34 am to DelU249
quote:With more data, a model should get more reliable, but even in retrospect, from a bayesian perspective, ~ 30% chance of winning is not indicative an an unreliable model. Someone like 10% of loss probably would have been though.
I understand what he does, it's just that it's not incredibly useful and as his feet get held to the fire with national elections his model will prove more and more to be unreliable. a 1 time event of 50 contests with the last one being held 4 years prior is not an nba game.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:34 am to DelU249
quote:
which he loved to defend
He was pretty open pre-election that perfectly predicting every state moving forward was unlikely to happen. I can try to hint it down for you if you want.
He was pretty clear the race was uncertain and unlikely to go exactly as planned.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:35 am to DelU249
quote:No it's not, but probability still means the same.
baseball isn't a national election...this whole 3:1 odds argument is so tiresome. those are good odds in the Kentucky derby.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:37 am to CorporateTiger
quote:And even warned that a popular-electoral split favorered Trump.
He was pretty clear the race was uncertain and unlikely to go exactly as planned.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:38 am to BamaAtl
people are interested in his model as a state of the race. he knows it, he plays to that, and he's happy to thump his chest when that model is proven to be good by that measure.
he knows what he does has almost no usefulness, that of his constantly updated models only 1 will be held to a set of results. it's complete garbage. not necessarily for other types of elections, but for this type, it absolutely is.
he knows what he does has almost no usefulness, that of his constantly updated models only 1 will be held to a set of results. it's complete garbage. not necessarily for other types of elections, but for this type, it absolutely is.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:38 am to BugAC
quote:
. What i am saying, is that Ossoff outspent his head to head by a massive amount and couldn't crack 50%. That's not good.
You're incorrect - Ossoff was outspent 2-1 by his opponent (the Republican party).
quote:
I'm also saying, that Ossoff won't crack 40% come time for the election
This is incorrect.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:47 am to CorporateTiger
quote:that the polls were volatile and the undecided voters likely to make the polls look stupid is something anyone could tell you.
He was pretty clear the race was uncertain and unlikely to go exactly as planned
I harped on it for months, but if you get busted on audio saying grab her by the pussy and there's a gaggle of undecided voters still...guess who they're voting for
funny how so many here picked more states correctly than nate silver. that's because what he does is a waste of everyone's time when it comes to a national election.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:51 am to DelU249
I mean I can turn that around on you and say that most on this board were predicting Romney bigly and we know how that turned out.
This board picks with their heart every time. This time it went in their favor.
This board picks with their heart every time. This time it went in their favor.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 10:51 am to DelU249
quote:And people who do not follow basketball sometimes correctly pick the NCAA tournament better than the most knowledgeable fans by picking based on school names and mascots.
funny how so many here picked more states correctly than nate silver.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:00 am to buckeye_vol
that's my point
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:01 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
And people who do not follow basketball sometimes correctly pick the NCAA tournament better than the most knowledgeable fans by picking based on school names and mascots.
His methods are no more accurate than the state polls and the state polls were biased and garbage.
People on here were saying that for months. Also the national polls were flat out misleading for months and only properly herded to Clinton +3 at the end.
All of the CBS / WSJ / NBC / Monmouth polls that were Skewed Dem +12 in a clearly Dem +3 year were bullshite and purposefully released to try and influence the electorate.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:03 am to Ag Zwin
quote:
Predicts bad midterms for Trump
Democrats/Independents have 24 seats up for reelection. 12 are in purple states. The Republicans have 8 seats up for reelection in very RED states. I wouldn't doubt it if the GOP gained 6 seats in the senate. The map is just very favorable to the GOP 2018 election cycle.
I expect some losses in the House however the GOP will not lose control of the House.
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:05 am to CorporateTiger
quote:at least they don't pretend after the fact they were not making predictions
I mean I can turn that around on you and say that most on this board were predicting Romney
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:22 am to SirWinston
quote:They were, and that's why he missed, but he at least accounted for correlated errors between states. This is why he was far closer than everybody else who uses the same data.
and the state polls were biased and garbage.
It was garbage in, but at least he tried to account for that. Not much else one can do.
quote:The only poll I recall around +12 (not including states like expected skews like that), was like in July.
All of the CBS / WSJ / NBC / Monmouth polls that were Skewed Dem +12
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:22 am to DelU249
quote:Where did he say he's not making a prediction?
at least they don't pretend after the fact they were not making predictions
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:24 am to DelU249
quote:But I don't get your point, unless someone doing predictions were pretending there isn't a lot of uncertainty--Nate consistently said they was.
that's my point
Posted on 4/24/17 at 11:35 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Nate consistently said they was.
1.
2. nate puts this out for public consumption because for all intents and purposes it's a prediction. otherwise no one cares. he knows that. period, end of story. you responded to my other point about picking states by not disagreeing with the fact that is precisely what he's doing...making a prediction. moreover, I know that you understand that's exactly what he's doing. so we can bullshite back and forth all day but he gets the business on twitter and from the media and there's a reason for that.
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