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Message
re: Nate plastic predicting big things for Dems at midterms....
Posted on 4/12/17 at 2:50 pm to Tigerdev
Posted on 4/12/17 at 2:50 pm to Tigerdev
Tigerdev:
You are full of shite as usual.
In case you are unaware, it is easy to look things up in the internet archive.
Nate Dungheap was predicting on his 538 site...
On Nov 8 @ 6:44:44 AM, Even Before ANY POLLS OPENED...
That Hillary's chance of winning was thusly..
70.9% to 29.1%
You are full of shite as usual.
In case you are unaware, it is easy to look things up in the internet archive.
Nate Dungheap was predicting on his 538 site...
On Nov 8 @ 6:44:44 AM, Even Before ANY POLLS OPENED...
That Hillary's chance of winning was thusly..
70.9% to 29.1%
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 2:58 pm
0
Posted on 4/12/17 at 3:14 pm to SirWinston
What is Alex jones an expert in? Conspiracy theories?
Posted on 4/12/17 at 3:35 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 4/12/17 at 3:38 pm to moneyg
quote:
This is an absolute lie.
It's really not. He warned people on his podcast not to underestimate Trump for MONTHS.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 4:35 pm to CptBengal
Silver is technically correct--if every district behaved like yesterday's election in Kansas, the democrats would pick up a ton of seats. Also, if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle.
The Estes-Thompson race doesn't really show anything--it is not an analogue for the Trump-Clinton race. On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being the most liberal and 10 being the most conservative, Thompson is like a 6-7 and Estes is ~9. Hillary is ~4 and Trump is ~8. Thompson performed better than Hillary because he is much more closely aligned with the political preferences of Kansas (especially on issues like gun control), end of story.
It creates a dilemma for the Democrat party--in a huge number of districts the way to be competitive is to run more moderate candidates, however the national enthusiasm seems to be in favor of radicals like Sanders and Warren. The Bernie bros and people attending the women's marches aren't going to show up to vote for the Blue Dogs who have a chance to flip some red seats.
The Estes-Thompson race doesn't really show anything--it is not an analogue for the Trump-Clinton race. On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being the most liberal and 10 being the most conservative, Thompson is like a 6-7 and Estes is ~9. Hillary is ~4 and Trump is ~8. Thompson performed better than Hillary because he is much more closely aligned with the political preferences of Kansas (especially on issues like gun control), end of story.
It creates a dilemma for the Democrat party--in a huge number of districts the way to be competitive is to run more moderate candidates, however the national enthusiasm seems to be in favor of radicals like Sanders and Warren. The Bernie bros and people attending the women's marches aren't going to show up to vote for the Blue Dogs who have a chance to flip some red seats.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 4:37 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Nate plastic predicting big things for Dems at midterms..
Has he relayed this prognosis to President Clinton yet?
Posted on 4/12/17 at 8:25 pm to tigercross
quote:The Trump comparison may not be the most valid, but it's actually pretty consistent with all other days from the district overall.
The Estes-Thompson race doesn't really show anything--it is not an analogue for the Trump-Clinton race. On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being the most liberal and 10 being the most conservative, Thompson is like a 6-7 and Estes is ~9. Hillary is ~4 and Trump is ~8. Thompson performed better than Hillary because he is much more closely aligned with the political preferences of Kansas (especially on issues like gun control), end of story.
4th district election results
Specifically, from 2002 to 2016 (8 elections), the Republican candidate won by no less than 22.2% with an average margin of victory of 29.6%.
In addition, from 2000-2016 the closest presidential election election was 2008, which went to McCain by 18 points. Across those 5 elections the Republican candidate had an average margin of victory of 24.6%.
Cook Partisan Voting Index
According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), the district has a +15 Republican PVI, which means Republican presidential candidates do 15 points better than their National average in that district. That is more more Republican leaning than 84% of all congressional districts.
Now obviously the candidates matter, and a special election is unique, so the unseen closeness of the race may not mean much beyond itself; however, if it some sign of a trend, it's not a positive one for the Rs. Although, a lot can and will happen before the 2018 midterms.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 8:30 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/12/17 at 9:55 pm to Damone
quote:
It speaks to the dreadfully terrible state of the current Democratic party that they are celebrating a close loss for a House seat.
In Kansas? Sorry man but you're absolutely wrong about that.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:05 pm to clooneyisgod
quote:
In Kansas? Sorry man but you're absolutely wrong about that.
It was a race with only 115000 votes cast.
The winner last fall got 170K by himself.
All it shows is a smaller group of intense Trump haters (who, let's face it are dems so they more likely have nothing better to do) showed up relative to most people who didn't bother.
The dem vote total dropped from 80K+ to 55K+.
does not mean a damned thing
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