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Started By
Message
Nate plastic predicting big things for Dems at midterms....
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:44 pm
19
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:46 pm to CptBengal
I'll wait for the experts like Bill Mitchell and Alex Jones to weigh in. Bill correctly called 49/50 states while Nate only hit 40 states. So sad!
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:47 pm to CptBengal
Yeah & Hillary had a 95% chance of being Prez.....voters told the Dems to GFT
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:47 pm to CptBengal
saying IF A happens it will mean B is considered a prediction now?
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:54 pm to CptBengal
Does Nate Tin even take into account that the GOP base is not even remotely motivated at this current time?
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:56 pm to Wtodd
quote:You guys aren't very bright. Silver gave Hillary her lowest chance out of anyone. It was at around 60% on election day. That means he gave Trump a 40% chance of winning. 40% is quite high in statistics...
Yeah & Hillary had a 95%
Also, he predicted the strong possibility that if Trump won he would lose the popular vote.
In other words, he is obviously smarter than you since you can't parse simple data...
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:59 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
40% is quite high in statistics..
quote:
ilver gave Hillary her lowest chance out of anyone. It was at around 60% on election day.
You unmade your own point
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:59 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
Nate plastic
frickin epic dude
Posted on 4/12/17 at 12:59 pm to CptBengal
Nate still thinks TRUMP only has a 2% chance of winning the primaries.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:00 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
40% is quite high in statistics...
NO it isnt.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:00 pm to CptBengal
I would rather trust picking from Peej's prognostications than trust Nate Silver's any longer. Sad!
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:00 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
Tigerdev
Now that's what you call mental gymnastics with that post.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:01 pm to CptBengal
It speaks to the dreadfully terrible state of the current Democratic party that they are celebrating a close loss for a House seat.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:05 pm to CoachChappy
Only to someone who has never taken a statistics course.
He created a mathematical model that parsed a very large data set and off-set it with trends and economic factors. When it was all said and done 40% of the model's scenarios let to Trump's victory.
60-40 is mild improbability.
You folks are reading it as if he predicted her to win by a 60-40 margin. We love the uneducated don't we folks?
He created a mathematical model that parsed a very large data set and off-set it with trends and economic factors. When it was all said and done 40% of the model's scenarios let to Trump's victory.
60-40 is mild improbability.
You folks are reading it as if he predicted her to win by a 60-40 margin. We love the uneducated don't we folks?
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:08 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
When it was all said and done 40% of the model's scenarios let to Trump's victory.
It was 26% the night before the election.
Also, why do you choose to ignore that the LEFT attacked silver as well, for not being in line with other aggregators showing a 95%+ chance at a victory for her? You can go back to twitter and read responses to his tweets, people were blasting him and saying no way trump has more than 20% chance.
Aren't those people uneducated as well?
538 blog had to write an article defending their model because the left wing media was attacking it.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:10 pm to CptBengal
quote:If I were managing a risk of something happening on a software project and mathematical models indicated that the probability was 40% there is no way anyone would consider that low enough to ignore or be acceptable.
40% is quite high in statistics...
NO it isnt.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:11 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I stuck with silver the entire time. I don't speak for everyone on twitter that supported Hillary so you will have to ask them.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:12 pm to CptBengal
That is embarrassingly simplistic. Especially for a guy that has pretensions of elevating above the Progressive echo chamber.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:12 pm to CoachChappy
quote:
You unmade your own point
Only if you don't understand statistics. Additionally, given that Trump won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by a greater margin than any other winner in history it's hard to call his national prediction off considering it was based on national polls-- remember a poll that say had Trump +3 nationally on election day was farther off than a poll that Had Hillary +6 nationally.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 1:13 pm to Tigerdev
Luckily, odds are you will never manage anything...so don't spend your time worrying about that.
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