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Started By
Message
May jobs report: meh.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:33 am
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:33 am
138k added in May, 4.3% unemployment
62.7% participation rate
Weak report.
Expect markets to react negatively.
62.7% participation rate
Weak report.
Expect markets to react negatively.
17
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:38 am to HubbaBubba
Futures are up. Market has only been moving down if there appears to be a threat to Trump's agenda. If his agenda is on track we will keep moving up.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:40 am to gatorsimz
Maybe, but the bond market will react if they see the economy slowing down.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:40 am to HubbaBubba
What's the difference in reasoning of the 253,000 jobs hike in the private sector that was reported yesterday. That's a big discrepancy from 138,000.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:40 am to gatorsimz
quote:
Futures are up. Market has only been moving down if there appears to be a threat to Trump's agenda. If his agenda is on track we will keep moving up.
Trump, up and awaaayyyyyy...
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:43 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Maybe, but the bond market will react if they see the economy slowing down.
There's not a whole hell of a lot that can be done with 4.3% unemployment until a lot of illegals are moved out of the country and entitlements start requiring the single, able-bodied adults to perform some sort of work or enroll (and attend) school.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:44 am to Homesick Tiger
Silver lining: government jobs: down 9k
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:44 am to HubbaBubba
Yeah, where's your 138K number from, I saw 235K.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:45 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
138k added in May, 4.3% unemployment
62.7% participation rate
Weak report.
Expect markets to react negatively.
As I've stated before, I'm not a huge fan of the "immediate reaction" train. If we lose some jobs, I'm not declaring Trump a failure. If we gain some, I'm not declaring him a success.
Long term growth and stability is what will determine success. Enough time for all the numbers to pan out. I mean, it's a 4 year presidency, not a 4 month one.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:46 am to Andychapman13
quote:U.S. Labor Dept. report released at 7:30 am this morning.
Yeah, where's your 138K number from, I saw 235K.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:48 am to HubbaBubba
ADP vs DOL is the numbers difference
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:50 am to HubbaBubba
All measures of unemployment edged down slightly, except for the long term unemployed which increased by 0.1%.
I'm statstimg to question if the LFPR ever returns to the mid to high 60s. We are hovering at 1977 levels right now.
Perhaps most concerning is the drop of 233k employed persons.
We are likely at our full employment level, so getting dramatic changes on a monthly basis is very unlikely.
I'm statstimg to question if the LFPR ever returns to the mid to high 60s. We are hovering at 1977 levels right now.
Perhaps most concerning is the drop of 233k employed persons.
We are likely at our full employment level, so getting dramatic changes on a monthly basis is very unlikely.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:50 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Silver lining: government jobs: down 9k
Good. It's a start considering this:
quote:
President Obama will set a record for the size of the basic federal workforce, leaving office with more than 1.4 million people collecting government salaries in the civilian agencies in 2017, according to the budget he delivered to Congress on Tuesday.
That's from a Jan. 2016 article in the Washington Times.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:52 am to Homesick Tiger
Discrepancies in how they are calculated. ADP uses their large payroll services to determine their job numbers, whereas the BLS uses the current population survey and sampling statistics to determine their numbers.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:53 am to HubbaBubba
The huge gap between this report and yesterday's ADP report is very curious. Given a choice, I would totally believe ADP over Dept. of Labor.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:56 am to Jyrdis
quote:
Discrepancies in how they are calculated.
So which is more reliable for forecasts in the future?
Posted on 6/2/17 at 7:58 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
What's the difference in reasoning of the 253,000 jobs hike in the private sector that was reported yesterday. That's a big discrepancy from 138,000.
The ADP payroll report is historically inaccurate in comparison to the BLS report. It counts people that are on the payroll system who are not actually working within the period observed.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:00 am to Homesick Tiger
I wonder why
ETA - sorry homesick this was supposed to be a response to conservativeditzywife
ETA - sorry homesick this was supposed to be a response to conservativeditzywife
This post was edited on 6/2/17 at 8:01 am
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:04 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
So which is more reliable for forecasts in the future?
I've seen a few papers that state they two reports somewhat closely resemble each other, but I would always choose the BLS report given their sampling methodology, as would most other economists.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:06 am to UHTiger
You're such a dingbat, dude! Having trouble coming up with a respectful, dignified answer? You can go back under your rock now! 
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