quote:
It's funny how much Islam is discussed here, but rarely is any real discussion had about it. This board is like the barber shop of Muslim /ME issues.

It's this weird effusive space. When I was growing up my idea of conservatives was William Buckley and George Will, not this.

quote:
Speaking of Druze/Shia/Sunni issues, Lebanon has fallen off my radar recently. I think I'm about to do some deep diving there late this year. Last time I was there it was growing pretty fast in the northern mountain towns and it looked like Hezbollah was looking to swap some autonomy for cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces. Guess I'm gonna have to uncork that Arak soon

Interesting. I read a paper from some think tank saying that the Syrian refugee crisis could destabilize Lebanon, but they've been fairly resilient. I do think it slightly poetic considering Syria's involvement in Lebanon that the tables have turned.

This post was edited on 6/4/17 at 12:05 am

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Posted by MrCarton

Paradise Valley, MT

Member since Dec 2009

20231 posts

Posted on 6/4/17 at 12:25 am to crazy4lsu

quote:
Interesting. I read a paper from some think tank saying that the Syrian refugee crisis could destabilize Lebanon, but they've been fairly resilient. I do think it slightly poetic considering Syria's involvement in Lebanon that the tables have turned.

After destroying their country for 15 years in a civil war, people are ready to lynch anyone who talks about starting a war haha. Lebanon has hung in there quite nicely, I've been optimistic about it for a while now. HA some influence by expansion into Syria so directly, and they pretty explicitly cooperate with the government on border security issues. They needed the help TBH. The powderkeg is in Tripoli with the sunni migrant population. Poor, dumb, unemployed Syrians and Iraqis have been a problem up there, pull the same old stints. Nahr al Barid camp was a microcosm of what could happen if they can't control thier border and fix the issues in Tripoli.

Hopefully as the overt Syrian war winds down the Syrian Sunnis in northern Lebanon don't get any stupid ideas, but I know that's probably pissing up a rope at this point.

How Asaad handles reintegration is going to matter a lot to the Lebanese. Fortunately he is friends with Franjieh and other powerful Leb Pols, so im sure they will have some input.

This post was edited on 6/4/17 at 12:27 am

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Posted by crazy4lsu

Member since May 2005

36311 posts

Posted on 6/4/17 at 12:33 am to MrCarton

The danger is Assad bungling reintegration and we have a situation like Black September on our hands, except more complicated. The only people who want Assad to remain in power are the Iranians, and this might be a place to force Russia's hand and see how committed they are to both Assad and Iran. Isolating Iran seems to be the one thing everyone is committed to, and hopefully that will be enough for the Iranians to calm down. They've been on a winning streak as far as geopolitics goes though.

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Posted by ShortyRob