re: Hagan a no-show at final debate?

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As I posted before you wrote this, she did not "skip out" on the debate because she turned down the invitation to participate back in July.

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I appreciate the facts and rational perspective that you provide in these situations since most of us don't keep up the specifics of the individual races.

Elizabeth Dole refused to do any debates with Hagan in the 2008 race. Dole lost. Let's hope that history repeats itself.

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With Hagan absent and nothing but an empty chair to face her opponent, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis spent an hour taking questions from two local reporters and voters.

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That is great publicity for Tillis - kind of like a townhall forum. Is Tillis even a threat to Hagan (I'm not up to snuff with this particular race)

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Asheville seems like a liberal freak-show. I talk to a lot of folks in communities surrounding Asheville .. and they want nothing to do with it.

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I've only ever heard great things about Asheville, from liberals and conservatives. Not to mention many of the communities surrounding Asheville (and Asheville as well) are suffering from generational poverty that is not uncommon in Appalachia. Their problems go well beyond Asheville. In fact, they would probably be worse off without the city. So I question the rationality of those individuals' perspective.

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Is Tillis even a threat to Hagan (I'm not up to snuff with this particular race)

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Latest RCP average has Hagan up by two points - 45.6%-43.6%. That totals 89.2% So does that mean that 10.8% are still undecided so close to the election? No, it doesn't. Libertarian Sean Haugh has come in with 7%, 6%, 5% and 6% in the last four major polls. Historically, on Election Day, Libertarian candidates score about half of the percentage they hold 30 days out. We are already seeing Libertarian Amanda Swafford's 6% shrink to 4% in Georgia.) As the election gets closer and a race is expected to be close, Libertarian supporters often adopt the "lesser-of-two-evils" practical mentality and cast ballots for one of the two major candidates. Thus one can expect Haugh to come in somewhere in the 3-4% range. Will Nunn or Perdue benefit most from the Haugh crossovers? No way to know.

The Swafford siuation in Georgia and the Haugh situation in NC are similar in terms of the Libertarian candidates polling about the same 15-30 days out, but there is one huge difference between the two situations. Libertarians in GA can vote for Swafford and still have a very good chance at making the lesser-of-two-evils decision on January 6th. Plurality wins in NC, so no mulligans available in that race.