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re: For those hoping Kansas would go Democrat tonight...

Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:42 am to
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73548 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:42 am to
Whew. That was a close one.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69366 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:42 am to
Guys, have you even folllowed Kansas politics? The GOP at the state level is unpopular and brownback is the third most unpopular governor in America

Anyone who thinks you can translate this "swing" nationally is being overly dramatic.

Ga -6 is the district to watch. The Dem is directly making it a referendum on trump
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30956 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:44 am to
quote:

For those hoping Kansas would go Democrat tonight...


The fact that a traditionally ultra-conservative state like Kansas was even close should be disconcerting for Republicans. Moderate states are unlikely to keep Republicans in power in 2018.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
48672 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:45 am to
you keep snagging those moral victories. We'll keep gaining seats.
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73548 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:45 am to
It's funny how unpopular Brownback is considering that the last Dem Governor was Sibelius, you know the stupid bitch that botched the Obamacare roll out.
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:49 am to
quote:

In Georgia, Dems have poured in big money and were doing well in early voting but have now fallen behind.

what does "fallen behind" mean here? last poll i saw, the dem was at 43% and the next closes was at 12%. early voting right now is at D 46 and R 37.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
48672 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:51 am to
And when the dems lose in Georgia, what moral victory will you draw from it?
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30956 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:55 am to
quote:

you keep snagging those moral victories. We'll keep gaining seats.


First, I'm not a liberal nor a democrat.

Second, this was not a "gained" seat for Republicans. It was either maintaining the seat, or losing it. A neutral outcome or a negative one.

Third, in the last election, Republicans LOST seats in both houses of Congress. They lost 6 in the House and 2 in the Senate. While the lead in the House is still substantial, it would not take much change in the Senate to lose the majority, considering both Independents typically vote for Democratic measures.

But yes, trade out facts for snarky quips. Why debate when you can deflect?
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99163 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:02 am to
quote:

and you are using only the repub share for maximum effect. the democratic candidate got 29% in the last congressional race and 45% last night, so you are excluding a 15 pt increase for the (D)s. 2016 diff was 31%, last night it was less than 7%. still a 20 pt swing


There's so much wrong with your comparison.

First, the national Dems POURED money into the 2017 race. Compare the spending to the others. I suspect there would be a HUGE divergence.

Second, note that the GOP candidates were different. Pompeo was VERY popular and could have held that seat forever if he wanted, getting at least 60% each time. Estes was NOT that candidate.

AND...

a special election with depressed turnout.

But, whatever makes you feel better.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
48672 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:05 am to
How many seats across the country (fed, state, local) have republicans gained in the last 5 years?

ETA: why are democrats so scared to admit they are democrats?
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 11:09 am
Posted by TheXman
Middle America
Member since Feb 2017
2976 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Moderate states are unlikely to keep Republicans in power in 2018.


It's hard to define a moderate state these days.

In 20 years there won't be any.

Dem strongholds:

- Northeast down through VA (except possibly NH)
- Entire west coast and southwest (except Utah)
- Illinois

Republicans strongholds:

- Midwest (except Illinois) and I'm including MN & PA
- South (from NC to LA)
- Oklahoma & Texas
- The plains/mountain states + Utah


The only state I see as a very long term moderate state is Florida because so many people come and go.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19821 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:10 am to
quote:


what does "fallen behind" mean here? last poll i saw, the dem was at 43% and the next closes was at 12%. early voting right now is at D 46 and R 37.


Ds were leading in daily vote totals but that has now flipped. Rs should also produce more on election day. Trends matter.
Posted by Toddy
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
27250 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:16 am to
quote:

First, the national Dems POURED money into the 2017 race. Compare the spending to the others. I suspect there would be a HUGE divergence.


Actually you are flat out wrong. The Dems have poured money into the GA race; they did not this one. They got a $150k donation from Daily Kos and that was about it. The GOP HOWEVER, poured thousands into this race the last week, sent Ted Cruz to campaign, had Donald Trump do a robo call. Spin it however you want, but winning this seat by less than 7% is pathetic and is could very well forebode what's going to happen in the future.
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:26 am to
I bet that dem a-hole did not tell the truth about Voting with pelosi 90% like he would have done.

If your assholes have to hide who you are to get close what does that prove?
Posted by TheXman
Middle America
Member since Feb 2017
2976 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:27 am to
quote:

They got a $150k donation from Daily Kos


Lol maybe we can get Info Wars to throw some money (or at least some Brain Force) at the GA race.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30956 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:38 am to
quote:

How many seats across the country (fed, state, local) have republicans gained in the last 5 years?


[link=(www.google.com)]An amazingly powerful tool to answer your questions![/link]

quote:

ETA: why are democrats so scared to admit they are democrats?


Why are you afraid to admit that people who disagree with you aren't automatically on "the other side"?
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30956 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:42 am to
quote:

It's hard to define a moderate state these days.


Eh, "swing state" is more or less what I mean.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida. All big pop states that have gone differently in recent elections. Harder to predict.

No one wonders if Texas will go red or California will go blue. If all states were easily predictable, everyone would know who would win each election and it'd be the same party because demographics don't typically change that much on 2-4 year scales.
Posted by ljhog
Lake Jackson, Tx.
Member since Apr 2009
19089 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:45 am to
quote:

The GOP is going to win this tonight by probably less than 5,000

You half right which is pretty dang good for you.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69366 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:47 am to
quote:

but winning this seat by less than 7% is pathetic and is could very well forebode what's going to happen in the future.


in 2014, the gop won the district by around that margin.

Why is it so hard for you guys to understand kansas politics?

Trying to connect this to trump is, at the moment, laughable. Trump was not uttered once by the democrat. The race was 100% about brownback, and estes was brownback's treasurer.

State politics is a different animal than national politics.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69366 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:48 am to
quote:

last poll i saw, the dem was at 43% and the next closes was at 12%. early voting right now is at D 46 and R 37.


If Ossof doesn't clear 50% in the first round, he is likely going to lose.
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