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Started By
Message
Euro Stock Markets and why Germany doesn't want to change a thing in the EU
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:30 pm
Below are the returns in stock markets since the Tech crash bottom in 2000 to December 2016:
German DAX: +388%
French CAC: +91%
Italian MIB: -17%
Spanish IBEX: +59%
Greek ATG: -84%
Let's look at the Germans as the main beneficiary of the status quo. The US guarantees German defense through NATO, so no need for military expenditures. Their currency is artificially held down by 30 to 50% compared to what the Deutsche mark would be by being lumped in with Italy, France, Spain, and Greece. This is a huge boom to their export driven economy.
As for the rest of Europe, the middle class in France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and to a lesser extent France, are given a great big FU. The elites in all of these countries invest in Germany, Nordic areas, Great Britain, and the US. Any prospect of exports are wishful thinking as the Euro has much higher value than the drachma, peseta, lira, and franc would be without the Euro. No exports kills the job market for middle class (see high rate of unemployment in Spain for the 20 to 35 age bracket).
The only problem Germany has is poor demographics. Add some immigrants and this problem begins to lessen. The immigrant crisis is a means to provide (cheap) labor for the Euro elites.
Germany is fat and happy at the moment. This means Merkel doesn't give a s*** about Trump's NATO bill. Why pay for tanks and bullets when they think the US will step in. Instead of military equipment they can pay for immigrant welfare while solving the demographic problem. Germany will have to be convinced Trump will hang them out to dry with the Russian before they start to pick up the tab.
German DAX: +388%
French CAC: +91%
Italian MIB: -17%
Spanish IBEX: +59%
Greek ATG: -84%
Let's look at the Germans as the main beneficiary of the status quo. The US guarantees German defense through NATO, so no need for military expenditures. Their currency is artificially held down by 30 to 50% compared to what the Deutsche mark would be by being lumped in with Italy, France, Spain, and Greece. This is a huge boom to their export driven economy.
As for the rest of Europe, the middle class in France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and to a lesser extent France, are given a great big FU. The elites in all of these countries invest in Germany, Nordic areas, Great Britain, and the US. Any prospect of exports are wishful thinking as the Euro has much higher value than the drachma, peseta, lira, and franc would be without the Euro. No exports kills the job market for middle class (see high rate of unemployment in Spain for the 20 to 35 age bracket).
The only problem Germany has is poor demographics. Add some immigrants and this problem begins to lessen. The immigrant crisis is a means to provide (cheap) labor for the Euro elites.
Germany is fat and happy at the moment. This means Merkel doesn't give a s*** about Trump's NATO bill. Why pay for tanks and bullets when they think the US will step in. Instead of military equipment they can pay for immigrant welfare while solving the demographic problem. Germany will have to be convinced Trump will hang them out to dry with the Russian before they start to pick up the tab.
5
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:32 pm to LSU0358
Time for Trump to enact pay for play. You don't pay, we don't play the role of your defense.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:33 pm to LSU0358
The avg German isn't going to keep putting up with the Muslim immigrant issues.
Eventually it will boil over big.
Eventually it will boil over big.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:35 pm to Crimson Wraith
quote:
The avg German isn't going to keep putting up with the Muslim immigrant issues.
I don't disagree with this. If things get nasty it won't work out well for many of the immigrants. Remember what happened the last time the Germans had a stressful political situation? The problem won't be blamed on Jews this time.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 4:59 pm to LSU0358
Holy mother of cherry picking.
Seems like the UK, Austria and the Swedes were convinced they were a part of the group during that period as well, wonder why they got left out.
Seems like the UK, Austria and the Swedes were convinced they were a part of the group during that period as well, wonder why they got left out.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 5:06 pm to cave canem
Hmmm...let's see.
The UK and the Swedes still have their own currency, which is the whole point of the analysis.
As for Austria, their economy is 1/9th to 1/10th the size of Germany, UK, and France.
The UK and the Swedes still have their own currency, which is the whole point of the analysis.
As for Austria, their economy is 1/9th to 1/10th the size of Germany, UK, and France.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 3/26/17 at 5:15 pm to LSU0358
quote:
The only problem Germany has is poor demographics. Add some immigrants and this problem begins to lessen. The immigrant crisis is a means to provide (cheap) labor for the Euro elites
Out of the fryin pan and into the fire. This assessment reminds me of that Merkel pool dance video. 
Posted on 3/26/17 at 5:48 pm to LSU0358
U.S. needs to leave NATO. NATO needs the U.S. not the other way around. We supply all their shite anyway.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 5:54 pm to Vlatket
quote:They buy their shite from the US. It´s more complicated than you think.
We supply all their shite anyway.
Posted on 3/26/17 at 6:09 pm to Dandy Lion
Also, you people don´t know this (should, but don´t cite it), but Germany was tanking ratio wise, as per the EU economic debt ratio mandate for a while there, and the rest of the EU, under much tension and with much negotiation, sucked it up.
We also know when Spain was cranking big time (the leader in European growth by full points), UK think tanks already envisaged they´d regain their rightful place as a premier and muscle flexing member of the EU, overtaking even France and the UK, due to their lending and funding capacity in Latin America and certain African and Asian areas, but this was based on the brick and mortar boom, funded with shoddy US capital based on ninja or phantom mortgages.
Europe is very complex, and these simplistic commentaries are disconcerting. Germany is not Germany as you people see, they both benefit and contaminate.
We also know when Spain was cranking big time (the leader in European growth by full points), UK think tanks already envisaged they´d regain their rightful place as a premier and muscle flexing member of the EU, overtaking even France and the UK, due to their lending and funding capacity in Latin America and certain African and Asian areas, but this was based on the brick and mortar boom, funded with shoddy US capital based on ninja or phantom mortgages.
Europe is very complex, and these simplistic commentaries are disconcerting. Germany is not Germany as you people see, they both benefit and contaminate.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 3/26/17 at 10:06 pm to Dandy Lion
quote:
Europe is very complex, and these simplistic commentaries are disconcerting.
Agreed it's complex. Many large books and a whole lot of political/financial analysis is done on the EU subject.
quote:
Germany is not Germany as you people see, they both benefit and contaminate.
My point is that Germany reaps more of the benefits than other countries. Southern European middle class workers seem to take the brunt of German success.
Now whether this was the whole idea of the EU in the 1st place, to keep Germany fully tied to Western Europe, is an interesting thought.
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