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Started By
Message
Compilation of secondary effects from the shut down
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:14 pm
I figured it might be good to keep them all in one place so I'll start. Feel free to add more and then I'll edit and update the OP
-33+ million have filed for unemployment, most of which also lost health insurance (which is a point that can't be ignored when people bring up the unemployment supplements to act like this doesn't mean anything)
-Rural hospitals which are already financially strapped are in danger of closing permanently
-Studies have shown that the shut down of a lot of COVID-19 related medical treatments could result in up to 1.4 million deaths from tuberculosis alone (world wide)
-In India alone 400 million may return to extreme poverty. The worldwide number is likely incalculable
-Countless (although presumably we'll have a count one day) small businesses will be closing their doors permanently
-It's estimated that ~75,000 additional Americans will die due to deaths of despair - suicide and substance abuse related. It should also be worth noting that those who don't die from misery induced alcoholism or drug usage will undoubtedly create long term health consequences for themselves
-Expected 3.7 trillion dollar annual deficit
-Contraction of the economy (duh)
-This is more of a personal opinion but if a second wave does hit that coincides with the seasonal flu in the winter the impacts on the healthcare capacity would obviously be more severe than they are now. We should be allowing more to get infected now in places where the system isn't at capacity (again, personal opinion)
-Mental health - this was already touched upon with the deaths of despair line item and is obviously very difficult to quantify but make no mistake there will be real world consequences
-Reduction in childhood vaccinations has already been observed
-Oil and Gas Industry will take it on the chin for the foreseeable future. The Saudis and Russians certainly did there part to flood the market but with scant demand due to fewer people driving and flying, it just prolongs the pain
-Airline industry will require massive bailout
-Arts and entertainment - essentially anyone in this industry or anyone that works jobs that help support this industry are all getting absolutely crushed.
- Delaying herd immunity
- Denying Americans basic Constitutional rights
- Bankrupting state and local governments
- Massive losses in tax revenue
- Educational losses - again the effects of this are going to be difficult to quantify at this time but there will certainly be a negative impact of people not being in school
-Ripple effect on the housing market with many loans already in forbearance. A foreclosure crisis could possibly be looming even with government assistance
-And to the above point, this will hurt the property values and subsequent net worth of many Americans, so it will have a negative impact even on people who never lost their job.
-4 out of 5 workers (as in the people still working) GLOBALLY have seen negative effects (reduced hours, benefits being paused, etc.)
-Domestic abuse including child abuse is expected to escalate if it hasn't already
-UN predicted that the virus would threaten 130 million more people with starvation by the end of the year
-33+ million have filed for unemployment, most of which also lost health insurance (which is a point that can't be ignored when people bring up the unemployment supplements to act like this doesn't mean anything)
-Rural hospitals which are already financially strapped are in danger of closing permanently
-Studies have shown that the shut down of a lot of COVID-19 related medical treatments could result in up to 1.4 million deaths from tuberculosis alone (world wide)
-In India alone 400 million may return to extreme poverty. The worldwide number is likely incalculable
-Countless (although presumably we'll have a count one day) small businesses will be closing their doors permanently
-It's estimated that ~75,000 additional Americans will die due to deaths of despair - suicide and substance abuse related. It should also be worth noting that those who don't die from misery induced alcoholism or drug usage will undoubtedly create long term health consequences for themselves
-Expected 3.7 trillion dollar annual deficit
-Contraction of the economy (duh)
-This is more of a personal opinion but if a second wave does hit that coincides with the seasonal flu in the winter the impacts on the healthcare capacity would obviously be more severe than they are now. We should be allowing more to get infected now in places where the system isn't at capacity (again, personal opinion)
-Mental health - this was already touched upon with the deaths of despair line item and is obviously very difficult to quantify but make no mistake there will be real world consequences
-Reduction in childhood vaccinations has already been observed
-Oil and Gas Industry will take it on the chin for the foreseeable future. The Saudis and Russians certainly did there part to flood the market but with scant demand due to fewer people driving and flying, it just prolongs the pain
-Airline industry will require massive bailout
-Arts and entertainment - essentially anyone in this industry or anyone that works jobs that help support this industry are all getting absolutely crushed.
- Delaying herd immunity
- Denying Americans basic Constitutional rights
- Bankrupting state and local governments
- Massive losses in tax revenue
- Educational losses - again the effects of this are going to be difficult to quantify at this time but there will certainly be a negative impact of people not being in school
-Ripple effect on the housing market with many loans already in forbearance. A foreclosure crisis could possibly be looming even with government assistance
-And to the above point, this will hurt the property values and subsequent net worth of many Americans, so it will have a negative impact even on people who never lost their job.
-4 out of 5 workers (as in the people still working) GLOBALLY have seen negative effects (reduced hours, benefits being paused, etc.)
-Domestic abuse including child abuse is expected to escalate if it hasn't already
-UN predicted that the virus would threaten 130 million more people with starvation by the end of the year
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:18 pm to Powerman
- Delaying herd immunity
- Denying Americans basic Constitutional rights
- Bankrupting state and local governments
- Massive losses in tax revenue
We need to quarantine the elderly and open everything up now. The Facebook Karens do not understand basic statistics or herd immunity.
- Denying Americans basic Constitutional rights
- Bankrupting state and local governments
- Massive losses in tax revenue
We need to quarantine the elderly and open everything up now. The Facebook Karens do not understand basic statistics or herd immunity.
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:19 pm to Powerman
People are not receiving regular health care for non COVID issues that could result in significant complications and loss of life: heart disease, cancer screenings, biopsies, symptoms of other illnesses, diabetes, etc
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:21 pm to Powerman
Effect on restaurants will be interesting, too. I heard some restaurant association guy around here on the radio recently. I think he basically said while our initial three week shutdown wasn't going to wipe out that many restaurants, every two weeks after that are pretty devastating to a couple of hundred more restaurants and they won't come back. Who is doing much business other than fast food and pizza?
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:39 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Effect on restaurants will be interesting, too.
It will be particularly interesting for really small restaurants that won't be able to reasonably abide by any distancing guidelines put out
The guy from the Bar Rescue show said a lot of restaurants in NYC will definitely have to permanently shut their doors because they won't be able to navigate the storm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:40 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:
People are not receiving regular health care for non COVID issues that could result in significant complications and loss of life: heart disease, cancer screenings, biopsies, symptoms of other illnesses, diabetes, etc
Correct. I mentioned the TB one only because there was a death toll estimate
The effects of all the other ailments not being treated will be massive
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:42 pm to Powerman
Chains will end up getting more of the market share in dining.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:47 pm to Powerman
Education might actually shape for the better.
Also this will be interesting to track how first year out of school jobs progress. A more remote environment will favor those in industry who have been at a company.
Also this will be interesting to track how first year out of school jobs progress. A more remote environment will favor those in industry who have been at a company.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:47 pm to Big4SALTbro
quote:
Chains will end up getting more of the market share in dining.
Yes but they're certainly not immune. I know Logan's Roadhouse closed all 250+ restaurants nationwide and laid everyone off
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:48 pm to Powerman
quote:
Educational losses - again the effects of this are going to be difficult to quantify at this time but there will certainly be a negative impact of people not being in school
OTOH some parents who may have been on the fence about homeschooling, or weren't too sure if they could do it or not, may now decide to go that route.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:50 pm to Powerman
Yea they are not immune at all and some will follow like Logan’s and die off.
Others will shutter some places but when you have a 100 and you can shutter 30 you are ok compared to mom and pop.
I’m interested to see what happens to the finer dining places that arent chains/owned by big celebrity chefs.
BBQ places should actually be thriving in this since most aren’t sit in
Others will shutter some places but when you have a 100 and you can shutter 30 you are ok compared to mom and pop.
I’m interested to see what happens to the finer dining places that arent chains/owned by big celebrity chefs.
BBQ places should actually be thriving in this since most aren’t sit in
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:51 pm to Powerman
quote:
I know Logan's Roadhouse closed all 250+ restaurants nationwide and laid everyone off
This was well before the shutdown in my hometown
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:52 pm to Powerman
quote:
-Arts and entertainment - essentially anyone in this industry or anyone that works jobs that help support this industry are all getting absolutely crushed.
Turns out there ARE some bright spots in all this, after all.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:56 pm to Quidam65
Honestly that might not be for the best considering the iq of the average American
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:13 pm to Powerman
quote:Resulting in 100 million new 7-11's opening in the USA once immigration restrictions are lifted
-In India alone 400 million may return to extreme poverty. The worldwide number is likely incalculable
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:13 pm to SevenLinesofPine
quote:
Turns out there ARE some bright spots in all this, after all.
That's not a bright spot
People that work at bars where live music is played are out of work. People that work at movie theaters are out of work. Musicians are out of work. You'd have to be a total piece of shite to think that this is in any way a good thing
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:27 pm to Powerman
Bump because I added a few more to the list.
Forgive me for not including links for every point here but all can be relatively easily researched. If someone would like a link to a specific point that they're not familiar with I'll try to respond with something.
Forgive me for not including links for every point here but all can be relatively easily researched. If someone would like a link to a specific point that they're not familiar with I'll try to respond with something.
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:41 pm to Powerman
I’m curious about the 4/5 workers still working having some changes.
I assume alot of places are not giving out bonuses this year
I assume alot of places are not giving out bonuses this year
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 7:46 pm to Big4SALTbro
quote:
I’m curious about the 4/5 workers still working having some changes.
I assume alot of places are not giving out bonuses this year
LINK
quote:
"Huge losses are expected across different income groups but especially in upper-middle income countries," the agency says, estimating a 7% decline in working hours for that group in the current economic quarter — a statistic that is equivalent to 100 million full-time workers in 40-hour workweeks.
"This far exceeds the effects of the 2008-9 financial crisis," the ILO report states.
quote:
For the world's economy, the crisis poses the most risk to vital sectors from food service and business/administrative services to manufacturing and retail, the U.N. agency says.
Combined, those sectors employ 1.25 billion workers — almost 38% of the global workforce. Many of them are low-paid and unprepared for a sudden loss of income.
Worldwide, the number of working hours will fall by 6.7% in the current quarter, according to the agency's estimates. That's equivalent to 230 million people working full-time, 40-hour weeks.
quote:
The pandemic is dealing a harsh blow to workers in the informal economy — a broad sector that includes jobs such as domestic workers and street vendors, and who often lack any social protections. Those jobs make up large portions of the economies in emerging and developing economies such as in India, Nigeria and Brazil.
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