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Message
CBO Model For Analyzing Medicaid Is Trash
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:27 pm
quote:
?@kepren?
CBO starts at 20M on every bill: 15M forego insurance if the mandate is repealed; 5M in future Medicaid expansions that don't happen.
Got that? CBO uninsured number includes 5M expansion eligible people in non-expansion states they assume will expand if no GOP bill passes.
And CBO includes 4M people on Medicaid in the 15M they think drop coverage without mandate.
They think 4 million people are only signed up for free Medicaid because of the mandate, and will otherwise disenroll.
So CBO starts every score at -20M just from the mandate and stopping NEW state Medicaid expansions. Their model is crazy.
CBO's mandate-maniacal model is impervious to reality. They have 18M people in the Obamacare exchanges in 2018 when we know it will be <10M.
8
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:29 pm to Rakim
quote:
They think 4 million people are only signed up for free Medicaid because of the mandate, and will otherwise disenroll.
Lots of people give up free stuff unless you force them to have it
The logic is baffling.
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:30 pm to Rakim
CBO model for anything is trash. 20 trillion dollar Mount Trashmore.
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:31 pm to Rakim
The CBO has always used the Democrats' talking points when computing any budget amounts.
"Budget cuts" is used by the CBO to describe "reduced increases in budgeted amounts."
That sort of thing....
"Budget cuts" is used by the CBO to describe "reduced increases in budgeted amounts."
That sort of thing....
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:33 pm to Rakim
The CBO is the Deep State just discount anything that they have to say.
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:43 pm to Lightning
When has the CBO EVER been right?
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:43 pm to OnTheGeaux
3 downvotes already, nice. Let's see...
Congressional Budget Office - check
All fiscal appropriations come from Congress - check
20 Trillion in debt - check
Keep downvoting you Leftist retards, it indicates how well you were served in public (government indoctrination) schools.
ETA: Correction, 5 downvotes... and to think I was ridiculed a week ago for stating this board leans further left during normal working hours.
This post was edited on 7/20/17 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:43 pm to Rakim
quote:
CBO starts at 20M on every bill:
I heard a Fox News contributor (can't remember who) state that every single bill put forth to CBO by republicans so far started out with the same # so it can really mean that much, can it?
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:50 pm to Lightning
quote:
Lots of people give up free stuff unless you force them to have it
There was a well-documented "woodwork" effect on Medicaid enrollment (some called it a "welcome mat effect") even in non-expansion states in the years following Obamacare passage.
That was another reason non-expansion states complained about the bill
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:52 pm to Rakim
It's a model and one that is going to be subject to error. If you read their methodology you can see that they run a simulation to get their results. Scanning through their tables, I didn't see any confidence intervals to go with their estimates, and that's something you'd like to see.
Also,
I read this as, the ACA forced people to get insurance or pay a penalty, so a repeal/replacement of it means those same people would drop insurance because they didn't want it (or perhaps couldn't afford it) in the first place.
Also,
quote:
CBO and JCT estimate that, in 2018, 15 million more people would be uninsured under this legislation than under current law—primarily because the penalty for not having insurance would be eliminated.
I read this as, the ACA forced people to get insurance or pay a penalty, so a repeal/replacement of it means those same people would drop insurance because they didn't want it (or perhaps couldn't afford it) in the first place.
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:55 pm to Rakim
It doesn't matter how many people will actually have it or not, it's important that the CBO starts a conversation about it. /s
The CBO could say it'll be 100 million and I still wouldn't give a frick.
The CBO could say it'll be 100 million and I still wouldn't give a frick.
Posted on 7/20/17 at 12:59 pm to bamarep
quote:
When has the CBO EVER been right?
You should put out your own alternate estimates. If you ever did better, even once, Trump might RT you!
Posted on 7/20/17 at 1:14 pm to Rakim
CBO is transparent and has a long history of making nonpartisan analyses of legislation.
It's not their fault your party only comes up with trash.
It's not their fault your party only comes up with trash.
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