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10 interesting facts about the Election 2016/polling
Posted on 11/29/16 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 11:48 pm
I thought I'd compile some interesting/notable facts about the election this year that haven't been talked about as much. All of the numbers are pretty rough (most taken from wikipedia and RCP) but accurate enough at this point to be included in this thread. Enjoy
1. Michigan swung by about 10 points in favor of the Republicans
In 2012, Obama beat Romney by about 10 points in Michigan (54%-45%). This year Trump beat Clinton by a fraction of a point in that state (48%-47%). This is also a 17-point swing from Obama's 2008 victory.
2. Ohio swung by about 12 points in favor of the Republicans.
In 2012, Obama beat Romney by about 3 points in Ohio (51%-48%). Trump won the state by 9 points this year.
3. With about 62.5 million votes, Trump has now received more votes than any republican candidate in history.
In second place is George Bush's 04 campaign with about 62 million votes.
4. According to the RCP, there was not one poll that had Trump up in Wisconsin throughout the entire general election cycle
Not one. The closest he ever came was within 3 points of Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton's final polling average in the state was +6.5. Trump won that state by 1 point. That being said, there weren't as many polls released for Wisconsin this year. That is because most pollsters considered it to be a moderate blue state.
5. According to RCP, only two polls released for Pennsylvania throughout the entire general election cycle had Trump in the lead. One of them had them tied.
These two polls were Trafalgar (11/3-11/5) and Quinnipiac (6/30-7/11). All in all, 47 polls are listed on RCP. Looking at the graph of the polling, Trump made significant gains in the state close to election time (Thank you Kellyanne Conway).
6. According to RCP, only one poll had Trump up in Michigan throughout the entire general election cycle
This was the Trafalgar poll released the day before the election. Like Wisconsin, not many polls were released for Michigan due to the fact that it was not considered to be a swing state by several pollsters. Clinton's final polling average in that state was +3.4. Trump won it by 0.2 points.
7. Aside from the states in the rust belt, all of the other swing state polling was pretty accurate for the most part
State: (Final polling average/Actual Result)
Arizona: (Trump +4.0/Trump +3.5)
Colorado: (Clinton +2.9/Clinton +4.9)
Florida: (Trump +0.2/Trump +1.1)
Georgia: (Trump +4.8/Trump +5.2)
Iowa: (Trump +3.0/Trump +9.5)
Maine: (Clinton +4.5/Clinton +2.7)
Nevada: (Trump +0.8/Clinton +2.4)
New Hampshire: (Clinton +0.6/Clinton +0.3)
North Carolina: (Trump +1.0/Trump +3.7)
Virginia (Clinton +5.0/Clinton +5.4)
8. US General Election polls weren't completely off either
United States: (Clinton +3.3, Clinton +1.8)
9. Aside from the normal swing states, if Trump's presidency is successful, there are some other democratic stronghold states that could turn into swing states in the future and may be states worth campaigning in.
Most notable is Minnesota in which Hillary only won by about 1.5 points. Maine is another one. Trump lost New Mexico by 8%, but Gary Johnson, a libertarian, won 9% of the vote. If republicans can tap into that support, NM is a swing state. Trump lost Rhode Island by 12%,,,, BUT considering Obama won the state by 27% in 2012, it's a state republicans should look into (Remember, Obama won MI in 2008 by 17%). Other possibilities include New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Oregon.
10. With most rust belt state on his side, Trump didn't need Florida to win.
Had he lost Florida, he still would have won with 277 electoral votes.
1. Michigan swung by about 10 points in favor of the Republicans
In 2012, Obama beat Romney by about 10 points in Michigan (54%-45%). This year Trump beat Clinton by a fraction of a point in that state (48%-47%). This is also a 17-point swing from Obama's 2008 victory.
2. Ohio swung by about 12 points in favor of the Republicans.
In 2012, Obama beat Romney by about 3 points in Ohio (51%-48%). Trump won the state by 9 points this year.
3. With about 62.5 million votes, Trump has now received more votes than any republican candidate in history.
In second place is George Bush's 04 campaign with about 62 million votes.
4. According to the RCP, there was not one poll that had Trump up in Wisconsin throughout the entire general election cycle
Not one.
The closest he ever came was within 3 points of Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton's final polling average in the state was +6.5. Trump won that state by 1 point. That being said, there weren't as many polls released for Wisconsin this year. That is because most pollsters considered it to be a moderate blue state. 5. According to RCP, only two polls released for Pennsylvania throughout the entire general election cycle had Trump in the lead. One of them had them tied.
These two polls were Trafalgar (11/3-11/5) and Quinnipiac (6/30-7/11). All in all, 47 polls are listed on RCP. Looking at the graph of the polling, Trump made significant gains in the state close to election time (Thank you Kellyanne Conway).
6. According to RCP, only one poll had Trump up in Michigan throughout the entire general election cycle
This was the Trafalgar poll released the day before the election. Like Wisconsin, not many polls were released for Michigan due to the fact that it was not considered to be a swing state by several pollsters. Clinton's final polling average in that state was +3.4. Trump won it by 0.2 points.
7. Aside from the states in the rust belt, all of the other swing state polling was pretty accurate for the most part
State: (Final polling average/Actual Result)
Arizona: (Trump +4.0/Trump +3.5)
Colorado: (Clinton +2.9/Clinton +4.9)
Florida: (Trump +0.2/Trump +1.1)
Georgia: (Trump +4.8/Trump +5.2)
Iowa: (Trump +3.0/Trump +9.5)
Maine: (Clinton +4.5/Clinton +2.7)
Nevada: (Trump +0.8/Clinton +2.4)
New Hampshire: (Clinton +0.6/Clinton +0.3)
North Carolina: (Trump +1.0/Trump +3.7)
Virginia (Clinton +5.0/Clinton +5.4)
8. US General Election polls weren't completely off either
United States: (Clinton +3.3, Clinton +1.8)
9. Aside from the normal swing states, if Trump's presidency is successful, there are some other democratic stronghold states that could turn into swing states in the future and may be states worth campaigning in.
Most notable is Minnesota in which Hillary only won by about 1.5 points. Maine is another one. Trump lost New Mexico by 8%, but Gary Johnson, a libertarian, won 9% of the vote. If republicans can tap into that support, NM is a swing state. Trump lost Rhode Island by 12%,,,, BUT considering Obama won the state by 27% in 2012, it's a state republicans should look into (Remember, Obama won MI in 2008 by 17%). Other possibilities include New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Oregon.
10. With most rust belt state on his side, Trump didn't need Florida to win.
Had he lost Florida, he still would have won with 277 electoral votes.
8
Posted on 11/29/16 at 11:51 pm to NeverRains
Great observations, but not validated until Buckeye Poll Guy weighs in.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 11:55 pm to NeverRains
quote:
Aside from the states in the rust belt, all of the other swing state polling was pretty accurate for the most part
quote:
Iowa: (Trump +3.0/Trump +9.5)
Iowa was off nearly as much as wisconsin was in the polling averages.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 11:58 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Iowa was off nearly as much as wisconsin was in the polling averages
Lol, nothing gets past yall. But yeah, both iowa and ohio were pretty off
Posted on 11/30/16 at 12:00 am to NeverRains
Media was wrong, they don't know or represent how the people actually feel.
Take that into consideration as they now tell us how we feel about the election results.
Take that into consideration as they now tell us how we feel about the election results.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 12:03 am to Lsuchs
They're not telling most how to feel, they're programming them how to think.
Anyway, we had Iowa up by 6.5, and were confident. I know they were confident about Ohio. And they thought if they turned out their voters in Florida, that would be OK, but they were worried about Florida.
Anyway, we had Iowa up by 6.5, and were confident. I know they were confident about Ohio. And they thought if they turned out their voters in Florida, that would be OK, but they were worried about Florida.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 12:11 am to NeverRains
If you dig into history you notice Ohio and Florida may be swing states but they tend to lean Republican over recent history.
Obama won Ohio by 4.6 and 2.98. Obama won Florida by 2.8 and 0.88. That's with the greatest democrat turnout of all time.
Bush won them twice and they want to go Republican. Trump crushed her in Ohio and Florida was relatively comfortable.
Minnesota is an interesting state. It's the only state that went for Mondale but it's usually under 10 points and Obama won it by 7.7 in 2012. Trump was very much in play there. Republicans need to work on it.
The Republican party will survive by taking over the rust belt and the Democrat party will suffer with their dismissal of blue collar workers there.
Obama won Ohio by 4.6 and 2.98. Obama won Florida by 2.8 and 0.88. That's with the greatest democrat turnout of all time.
Bush won them twice and they want to go Republican. Trump crushed her in Ohio and Florida was relatively comfortable.
Minnesota is an interesting state. It's the only state that went for Mondale but it's usually under 10 points and Obama won it by 7.7 in 2012. Trump was very much in play there. Republicans need to work on it.
The Republican party will survive by taking over the rust belt and the Democrat party will suffer with their dismissal of blue collar workers there.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 12:21 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
They're not telling most how to feel, they're programming them how to think
Meant tell us how we feel, not how to feel.
They simply are incorrect or dishonest. They were wrong about how the people felt going into the election and now they expect us to trust them on how the people feel after the election.
I know they (media) are butt hurt, and I know their sheep they spoon fed bullshite to for months are melting on social media. I know a couple hundred paid protestors in scattered cities are butt hurt. That's about it.
I do not trust their narrative on the mindset of the majority of the population
They have proven to either have no clue and a flawed method of getting an accurate idea, or are straight up liars serving their own interests. Likely both
This post was edited on 11/30/16 at 12:33 am
Posted on 11/30/16 at 7:05 am to NeverRains
the reality is that our traditional media is absolutely in bed with the Democrat Party
We have evidence that the media uses polls as a tool for manipulation and to create a sense of "inevitability"
fortunately; their propaganda tactics failed this year
We have evidence that the media uses polls as a tool for manipulation and to create a sense of "inevitability"
fortunately; their propaganda tactics failed this year
Posted on 11/30/16 at 7:12 am to NeverRains
quote:
Looking at the graph of the polling, Trump made significant gains in the state close to election time
A 67% increase in health insurance premiums will do that.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 7:14 am to dcbl
quote:
fortunately; their propaganda tactics failed this year
As it did in the 2014 elections.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 7:22 am to NeverRains
Pollsters failed to account for his rust belt/Reagan democrat appeal to working class whites. There was a huge silent Trump vote in the upper Midwest
I said after 2012 the future of the GOP with changing demographics in the country would be to change its message to appeal to the upper Midwest states full of white working class voters to offset blue trending states like Va, Co, NV that were traditionally red
I said after 2012 the future of the GOP with changing demographics in the country would be to change its message to appeal to the upper Midwest states full of white working class voters to offset blue trending states like Va, Co, NV that were traditionally red
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:15 pm to NeverRains
- Donald is the first president-elect who did not win a majority of the votes in either the primary or the general election.
- Barack Obama is the only person to ever receive more general election votes than Hillary Clinton.
- Hillary Clinton smashed the record for largest margin of victory in the Popular Vote while not winning the Electoral College.
Four other presidential candidates have won the Popular Vote but not the Electoral College (Andrew Jackson - 1824, Samuel Tilden - 1876, Grover Cleveland - 1888, Al Gore - 2000). None had a margin as huge as Clinton's (currently over 2.5 million) over Donald. Clinton's mega big-league margin over Donald in the Popular Vote exceeds the margin of a number of general election winners. (According to polls, the majority of Americans would prefer the Popular Vote over the Electoral College.)
- Barack Obama is the only person to ever receive more general election votes than Hillary Clinton.
- Hillary Clinton smashed the record for largest margin of victory in the Popular Vote while not winning the Electoral College.
Four other presidential candidates have won the Popular Vote but not the Electoral College (Andrew Jackson - 1824, Samuel Tilden - 1876, Grover Cleveland - 1888, Al Gore - 2000). None had a margin as huge as Clinton's (currently over 2.5 million) over Donald. Clinton's mega big-league margin over Donald in the Popular Vote exceeds the margin of a number of general election winners. (According to polls, the majority of Americans would prefer the Popular Vote over the Electoral College.)
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:34 pm to inadaze
quote:
(According to polls, the majority of Americans would prefer the Popular Vote over the Electoral College.)
I'm sure they do.
I'm also sure that those polls would match up fairly close to how the election went.
Doesn't matter though because the low population States will never give up the Electoral College.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 7:05 pm to Loserman
Another fact for the thread - Donald's margin in the Electoral College is among the smallest ever.
(In 1824, John Quincy Adams only received 32.2% of the votes in the Electoral College. The decision ultimately went to the House of Representatives. Every other president won the Electoral College by over 50%, and of those, only 10 people have ever had a smaller percentage of electoral votes than Donald.)
(In 1824, John Quincy Adams only received 32.2% of the votes in the Electoral College. The decision ultimately went to the House of Representatives. Every other president won the Electoral College by over 50%, and of those, only 10 people have ever had a smaller percentage of electoral votes than Donald.)
This post was edited on 12/2/16 at 11:41 pm
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