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Preview of Round 1 Playoffs? Splash Bros vs AD

Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:31 am
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:31 am
Who does Golden State rather play in round 1? I think OKC with just Westbrook on his own gives them hell and would push them to 6 or 7 games in round 1, whereas they may bounce the pels earlier if they play NOLA in Round 1.

Would Golden State choose to rest players against Pels Tuesday night? They could help their chances on who they play in Round 1 if so...

Posted by Solo
Member since Aug 2008
8245 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:33 am to
Dubs are going to wreck whoever they play in the first round. I don't think they care, but if Kerr had a gun to his head he would probably rather not face Westbrook throwing up 40 point triple doubles on the regular.

I definitely hope GS rests some players on Tuesday...
This post was edited on 4/6/15 at 10:34 am
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:49 am to
Same thing Im thinking...Not saying AD wouldn't have big stat lines against the Warriors in Round 1, just think with Russ being a PG and having control of the ball pretty much 98% of the time in that offense without KD He'll make sure to get his...

If OKC doesn't make the playoffs and Pels swoop in, I see KD gone( think he's gone regardless), Westbrook possibly gone or paid waaaaaaaaaay too much, and Scott Brooks fired?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115894 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:49 am to
Kerr has already said he's not calling off the dogs (ie resting players) under any scenario. He wants to keep his guys on edge and have them rolling. So we will be getting their best shot, especially after just losing to the Spurs and them being out of that game for the most part.

And yeah, they would rather face us than OKC for sure, but I don't think they care that much.
Posted by Suntiger
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
32963 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:50 am to
quote:

I don't think they care


Agreed.

Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:52 am to
Everything is wrapped up and sealed for them....possibly a minutes restriction on players, not completely have the night off, but I could see some sort of holding back....they are really deep and I could see them doing this.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61509 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 10:58 am to
This game is still winnable. The Pels should have beat them back in December at home when they lost in OT. Ryno was 2-8 from 3, AD didn't play, and Rivers, Jimmer, Babbit and Salmons combined for 70 minutes and only 16 points on 6-18 shooting, yet the team almost won.

Cole isn't as good as Jrue, but the rest of the bench is so much better now that if AD can shake his funk off I don't see why they can't do the same thing again and make a game out of it.
This post was edited on 4/6/15 at 10:59 am
Posted by quail man
New York, NY
Member since May 2010
40926 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 11:09 am to
nevermind
This post was edited on 4/6/15 at 11:10 am
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12721 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 11:35 am to
I'm not so sure they'd rather face a Pels team who may be fully healthy come playoff time. The Thunder aren't playing very good ball currently and can't defend at all. We simply have more ways to beat them other than relying on one guy to go apeshit.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 11:51 am to
quote:

I'm not so sure they'd rather face a Pels team who may be fully healthy come playoff time


Yup. I don't think they care, but OKC w/o Durant and Ibaka is not a bigger threat than a healthy Pels.

quote:

ATL


quote:

if AD can shake his funk off


Interesting to look at Davis shot charts pre injury and since he's come back.

Pre: 41% of his shots in the RA, 16% Paint Non RA, 42% Mid Range

Post: 33% RA, 15% Paint Non RA, 52% Mid Range

He's actually shooting slightly better in Mid Range (43 to 45) and Non RA (41 to 43), and significantly worse in the RA (73 to 65) post injury. He's also playing 39.5 MPG since returning.

Could be any number of reasons (defenses, tired, fear of re-injury, small sample size alert, etc) he's taking less shots at the rim and less effective there. Just something to monitor going forward.
Posted by quail man
New York, NY
Member since May 2010
40926 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 12:38 pm to
and he shot like shite on that road trip
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38812 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:16 pm to
the big thing about AD's offensive game right now, what takes him from effective to unstoppable, as that nearly automatic mid-range jumper he'd been showing. the question is whether that jumper is sustainable

i dont think 52% mid range jumpers is sustainable, but he may just be a freak of nature. its obvious though when that thing started falling that he quit driving to the lane as much, at least by the eye test. that may be a natural reaction to the injury. in any event, if the jumper is shaky, it throws his whole game off
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12721 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

Could be any number of reasons (defenses, tired, fear of re-injury, small sample size alert, etc) he's taking less shots at the rim and less effective there. Just something to monitor going forward.


I honestly think he's having difficulty adjusting to the decision making of distributing more. He seems hesitant to me. It seemed the second he touched the ball, you knew it was going up pre-assists. He also seems to be taking playing like crap (for his standards) pretty poorly. Hopefully Norris/QPon can get him to let it go.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61509 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:24 pm to
Yeah, the increase in assists is playing a role in it. Instead of driving for an And 1, he passes to the open man. He'll figure it out eventually, but the passing literally came out of the blue like 3 weeks ago.
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

We simply have more ways to beat them other than relying on one guy to go apeshit.



OKC Starting 5:

F - Kyle Singler - PELS
F - Ernes Kanter - OKC
C - Steven Adams - OKC
SG - Deion Waiters - EVEN
PG - Russel Westbrook - OKC

6th Man - Anthony Morrow - EVEN
Coach - Scott Brooks - OKC

Pels Starting 5:
F - Anthony Davis - PELS
F - Quincy Pondexter - OKC
C - Omar Asik - OKC
SG - Eric Gordon - EVEN
PG - Tyreke Evans - OKC

6th Man - Ryan Anderson - EVEN
Coach - Monty Williams - OKC

OKC is tougher to play, even outside of just Russ Westbrook. I could go into more depth on the lineup but I wont. I am a Pels fan and not hating on our team, but we just aren't there yet. It is great and the excitement of a possible playoff push is great for the organization, but I don't think its good enough to save Monty and Del's jobs unless they make the playoffs and also win a few games in the playoffs.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15188 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

OKC Starting 5:
F - Kyle Singler - PELS
F - Ernes Kanter - OKC
C - Steven Adams - OKC
SG - Deion Waiters - EVEN
PG - Russel Westbrook - OKC

6th Man - Anthony Morrow - EVEN
Coach - Scott Brooks - OKC

Pels Starting 5:
F - Anthony Davis - PELS
F - Quincy Pondexter - OKC
C - Omar Asik - OKC
SG - Eric Gordon - EVEN
PG - Tyreke Evans - OKC

6th Man - Ryan Anderson - EVEN
Coach - Monty Williams - OKC


I like how you change the guys positions to manipulate the argument, when in reality:


C: Asik > Adams
PF: AD >>> Kanter
SF: QPon > Singler
SG: Gordon > Waiters
PG: Evans << Westbrook

Your comparisons are downright stupid, dog.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61509 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:51 pm to
Am I reading this wrong or do you have Singler and AD at the same position? I see it as much more in our favor than you're figuring.

Westbrook - Tyreke = OKC
Waiters - Gordon = NOLA (Waiters is horribly inefficient, kind of like Gordon without the good 3 point shooting)
Singler - Pondexter = Even
Kanter - AD = NOLA
Adams - Asik = Even (I'd probably even give a slight edge to Asik, we're talking about play now, not considering things like current age and contract)

This post was edited on 4/6/15 at 1:52 pm
Posted by Solo
Member since Aug 2008
8245 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:51 pm to
Those positions are kind of off...
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 1:52 pm to
going off of our past couple of lineups and their past couple of lineups...

Im being realistic. Singler and Pondexter are EVEN if you want to do that, and Kanter is obviously not better than AD, but is playing damn good basketball. So is Steven Adams.

I know this is a Pels message board, but also being real. Now with Jrue as PG and Reke as the SF that would make our lineup look more balanced. Asik and Adams are pretty much the same. Gordon and Waiters the same.

It's pretty simple. Also OKC has playoff experience whereas we have ZERO....so yes Golden State would much rather play us than play OKC...
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15188 posts
Posted on 4/6/15 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

Singler and Pondexter are EVEN if you want to do that


No, they aren't. Singler has an Austin Rivers-esque PER.

quote:

Asik and Adams are pretty much the same


Nope, in about the same minutes, Adams only scores 0.4 more points, but Asik grabs 2.5 more rebounds. That's 34% more rebounds.

quote:

Gordon and Waiters the same.


Absofrickinglutely not. Waiters is not a good basketball player. Maybe if we take pre-injury Gordon for the comparison, but as they are playing now, Gordon is significantly better and trending better, as well.

FG%/3P%/AST/REB
Waiters 39.6/28.6/2.0/2.3
Gordon 41.3/45.0/3.9/2.6

quote:

It's pretty simple


It really is, but you seem confused.
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