re: Biggest Coaching Blunder Yet

quote:

---

You're acting like I'm saying he wouldn't have helped, I'm saying they had bigger problems that better rebounding alone doesn't over come. Asik wasn't looking dominant to the eye test because he wasn't able to even challenge penetrators that had beaten their man, bad perimeter defense like 42 mentioned.

---

Naw, thats not what I mean. I'm not saying Asik being out was a mistake because he was the fix to our problems. I'm saying he's the trump card against Denver. He absolutely dominates them. Makes them pay for having incredibly undersized forwards. Faried is not that good and the reason is he's too small and a major liability against bigger players. We let them off the hook rather than exploit them like we should have with Asik. He secured 9 offensive rebounds in 24 minutes. Based on his utter domination of them in their last meeting, it doesn't seem to be an anomaly.

I think its a natural human tendency for coaches to have a bias towards stupid adjustments like that. They want to make some kind of "matchup adjustment" to stop the points that we give up from not being as quick or skilled without considering that by just not sitting tight and not making an adjustment and letting the other team self destruct by having a center who is literally half a foot too small for the NBA, we net way more.

The opportunity cost is just so great when you sit a top 5 rebounding 7 footer against the team in the NBA least prepared to deal with massive centers. That is what any logical person would think and then the fact that Asik got an ABSURD amount of rebounds in the last two match ups supports it.

quote:

---

but is asik in instead of Tyreke going to be a worse outcome in the last second? I honestly disagree.

---

I think that depends on how much you think Denver is thinking 3 for the win rather than 2 for OT. I do agree that Tyreke is the variable you change, I'm just not sure Asik solves the problem. Here's the new Player Movement animation from the last play of regulation where Faried tied it up. LINK

If Asik is in AD would have been in Cunningham's place (44) and out on the perimeter guarding Gallo. Asik would have probably done the same thing AD did, challenge the guard on the pick, what didn't happen fast enough is Tyreke rotating to the basket. QPon in for Tyreke seems like it gives you a better chance of stopping that than Asik for Cunningham, no?

A couple of things after watching that play a few times:

If you think you need to go small, I'm not sure why QPon isn't in there. That said, I don't know if you can expect an opposite corner defender to get to the other side of the paint to defend a right handed lay up unless you immediately zone up/overload the Faried/Lawson PnR.

It also probably is worth asking why they didn't just have Will Barton's man zone up on that PnR. I'll take my chances on Barton getting a shot over any of the other Nuggets on the court.

As for Asik, I would be curious to see Synergy numbers with him v PnR and Davis's numbers in the same situation and if their is a difference between their numbers and the Pelicans' internal ones. I also think he would have offered more resistance than Davis on the layup. It's not the end of the world that Monty didn't go with him here, but he had a dead ball. He had TOs; there was ample opportunity to put Asik in. Some coaches ( Pop in the Finals pulling Duncan in a similar situation) just prefer to go small there. I think the question worth asking is do you think the group on the floor can defend a small lineup better without Asik? Given the team's poor ability to stop penetration and Asik's ability as a rim protector, that is an entirely fair question.

quote:

---

I don't know if you can expect an opposite corner defender to get to the other side of the paint to defend a right handed lay up unless you immediately zone up/overload the Faried/Lawson PnR.

---

I agree, I think Cunningham could have a chance but not QPon, but either of those 2 would have been in the play more than Tyreke. The real problem was Norris Cole getting a step behind forcing AD to challenge giving Faried the space he needed.

quote:

---

there was ample opportunity to put Asik in. Some coaches ( Pop in the Finals pulling Duncan in a similar situation) just prefer to go small there

---

I don't think Monty pulls AD for Asik ever. I was trying to think why he left Tyreke in for a defense only play, and the only answers I can come up with are he's a good rebounder, and if he's ever going to get better at defense you have to ask him to play it. Sitting Tyreke in that situation might make Tyreke think he doesn't need to work on his defense.

If we are talking strictly what the OP is referring to. Manimal is a good matchup for Asik. You want him taking jumpers and out of the paint. The size advantage is huge. That naturally makes the next matchup their SF/PF tweener vs. AD or forcing one of those to box out/guard Asik on defense. AD was obviously up for the challenge vs. Faried, but the original point stands. You play to YOUR strengths, not to theirs. Drives me crazy. What's worse, Monty has a transcendent player that allows him to tinker, and he puts AD exactly where the other coach wants him.

Monty's rotations are still so puzzling. With that said, the Nugs were hot and always seem to give us trouble. I'm not surprised at all that we lost to them. Need to win these next two games, and at LAC. If we do that, we will be looking great for the final 12 game push...