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re: Deflated: the Statistically Impossible Patriots Fumble Record; cheating proved?

Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:39 pm to
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7247 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:39 pm to
The fumbling thing has been debunked by multiple people. This has summary of best articles.

LINK /
Posted by NHTIGER
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
16188 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

Wasn't LeGarrette Blount a notorious fumbler before joining the Patriots?


Blount's fumbling rates per carries + receptions:

Tampa Bay: 2.0%

Pittsburg: 1.4%

New England : 1.4%
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

1) Did the Patriots deliberately deflate the footballs?

2) If yes, did they do so for a reason?


I don't know for sure if it was deliberate but it wouldn't surprise me. That being said, the hackish article from the OP is so so logically, statistically, and factually flawed that it has no practical relevance to deflategate.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30112 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:56 pm to
explain Ridley's fumbling issues
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40139 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

explain Ridley's fumbling issues


Bogies withdrawls
Posted by Rex
Here, there, and nowhere
Member since Sep 2004
66001 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

That being said, the hackish article from the OP is so so logically, statistically, and factually flawed that it has no practical relevance to deflategate.

I am reading through some of these rebuttal articles that supposedly debunk the OP... and I'm generally not impressed.
Posted by Jcorye1
Tom Brady = GoAT
Member since Dec 2007
71426 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

I am reading through some of these rebuttal articles that supposedly debunk the OP... and I'm generally not impressed.



I always forget just how obvious a troll you are.
Posted by Rex
Here, there, and nowhere
Member since Sep 2004
66001 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 8:34 pm to
I can go into reasons the rebuttals are not impressive... e.g. the one by the Patriots fan who suggested that a "one season rolling average" (no such meaningful thing) would be as meaningful as a five year average... but you wouldn't read or comprehend them, anyway, so what's the point? You'd only continue to call me a troll despite the many points I've made across all these boards.

Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92876 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 8:43 pm to
You really should ban yourself
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

There will always be an asterisk next to all of their Super Bowl wins.



How many of those occurred between 2010 and 2014?
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

the one by the Patriots fan who suggested that a "one season rolling average" (no such meaningful thing) would be as meaningful as a five year average.
He didn't advocate for a "one season rolling average" he is saying that there are meaningful patterns across seasons. Given the didferences between a team from year to year (personnel, coaches, injuries), let alone across five years, aggregating data hides meaningful variation. One of the major advantages of repeated measures studies is that it has more statistical power and can more accurately tease out trends and relationships. So given the small sample size, year to year variation, and advantages of repeated measures, it is patently false to say that the 5 year average is just as meaningful.
Posted by RemouladeSawce
Uranus
Member since Sep 2008
13952 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 10:06 pm to
A deeper dive in the stats to debunk aside, the whole premise is absurd. They've been cheating for ~5 years, just never been caught until now? Ridiculous.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

A deeper dive in the stats to debunk aside, the whole premise is absurd. They've been cheating for ~5 years, just never been caught until now? Ridiculous.
To add to that, it assumes other teams either weren't aware of this advantage or didn't attempt it because they had more integrity. Even then, if it was some clear advantage, but they didn't want to cheat, wouldn't they deflate balls to the legal minimum to at least get some of that amazing advantage?
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5250 posts
Posted on 1/30/15 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

To add to that, it assumes other teams either weren't aware of this advantage or didn't attempt it because they had more integrity. Even then, if it was some clear advantage, but they didn't want to cheat, wouldn't they deflate balls to the legal minimum to at least get some of that amazing advantage?


Not neccesarily. Maybe Tom Brady is an exception in that he likes or tolerates a deflated ball where as most quarterbacks are a limiting factor to the fumbling advantage.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 1/31/15 at 12:29 am to
quote:

Not neccesarily. Maybe Tom Brady is an exception in that he likes or tolerates a deflated ball where as most quarterbacks are a limiting factor to the fumbling advantage.
Well the QB only accounts for a small portion of fumbles so it would have to benefit other Pats players to be as significant as this poor analysis states. And if it just happens to help all of those Patriots players, well it should help many other players around the NFL, QB or otherwise.
Posted by alabamabuckeye
Member since Jun 2010
22206 posts
Posted on 1/31/15 at 1:19 am to
The most fumble prone player on the field is the QB. Tom Brady has one of the fastest drop backs in the NFL, therefore the window for him to get hit and fumble is small. The rebuttals aren't from Pats fans. Check out Advanced NFL Analytics.

If you're still not convinced, then you don't believe in facts anyways.
This post was edited on 1/31/15 at 1:20 am
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
10984 posts
Posted on 1/31/15 at 6:54 am to
I am done fighting this nonsense but this 'theory' has been widely and vastly debunked by a broad spectrum of analysts - let Google be your friend.

Besides that, I want to taste the sweet, sweet tears of the sore losers after the Pats castrate the Crotch Grabbers tomorrow.
For the Sore Loser Babies
Posted by Pectus
Internet
Member since Apr 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 1/31/15 at 8:13 am to
quote:

o0o0o0o0o0o0oooo a graph!


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