Pretty cool site for stats junkies

Good find. I have been meaning to look at shot frequency and field goal percentage in the 4th quarter to get some statistical data of who/why the Pelicans have trouble closing out games. Here are some interesting stats I found tracking our three most prominent players: Davis, Evans, and Holiday (unfortunately Anderson couldn't be included since, as stated before, his shot chart is messed up as it has him shooting 3-119 from 3pt land):

Shots, 4 quarter fg% and overall fg% (for reference)
Evans - 98 - 46.9% (best % quarter) - 42.4% overall
Holiday - 88 - 35.2% (worst % quarter)- 44.4% overall
Davis - 82 - 65.9% (best % quarter) - 57.9% overall
(admittedly, the shot attempts is flawed because it doesn't take into account FT's)

Analysis: At first glance, this tells two things: first, AD still is not attempting the amount of fourth quarter shots needed for the Pelicans to close out games (for reference, AD has attempted less shots in the 4th than any quarter). Second, that Holiday handling the ball might to be more of a problem in the 4th than when Evans runs the point. Third, that Davis and Evans, although his fg% isn't great, seem to turn their game up when it matters most.

But, this does not match the eye test. Watching the games, it seemed to me that Evans struggled making shots in close games. Narrowing the window, I looked at fg% of players in the fourth quarter when it is a two possession game (either up 1-6 pts, tied, or down 1-6 pts.)

Shots, 6pt game fg% and 4th fg% (for reference)
Evans - 38 - 26.3% - 46.9%
Holiday - 35 - 25.7 - 35.2%
Davis - 31 - 87% - 65.9%
(again, this number is slightly off because of FT's)

Analysis: Evans and Holiday are not doing the team many favors in the clutch. Evans' respectable 46.9% 4th fg% is somewhat of a farce, as he seems to put up numbers in garbage time of games. Not only has he taken the most shots in close games, but his 4th fg% plummets to s disgusting 26.3%. Holiday should shoulder some of the blame as well as he has taken the second most shots and is hitting at an even lower 25% fg%. Davis, on the other hand, might be the most clutch player right now in the league. To dig even deeper, when the Pelicans are LOSING by 1-6pts in the 4th, Davis is shooting a blistering 90.9% (20-22).

So how do the Pelicans fix the 4th quarter problems and close out games strong? GIVE DAVIS THE BALL. Particularly when the Pelicans are nursing leads. This is a really simple and obvious answer to that question, but most of the time the best answers are the most obvious ones. As stated above, Davis is being feed the ball when the team is down (22 total attempts), and he is thriving. But whenever the Pelicans are LEADING by 1-6pts in the 4th quarter of games, Davis has only attempted 7 total shots (and he's made 6!). I have seen a more concerted effort to get Davis the ball this year in both strategy and play design, so Monty Williams cannot be entirely to blame, but it is heard to not blame coaching for execution and shot distribution in close games. Williams needs to make a better effort to let Davis close out games, especially when the Pelicans are trying to close out games with the lead.

TL/DR: Davis needs the ball more.

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Baron

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Solid post.

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Davis - 31 - 87% - 65.9%

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That's crazy. Give that man the ball.