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Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:16 pm to rondo
This isn't fantasy sports, bro. You probably think there's absolutely no way in hell Duncan is a center, or Ralph Sampson was ever a PF, etc. The world doesn't always work in absolutes.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:21 pm to ManBearTiger
Lol...i call out the guy fabricating positions to make a point and people think I'm a dummy.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:22 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
Positions were created so a novice could follow the game
Jalen Rose to everyone in this thread
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:47 pm to Roger Klarvin
And the Pels have the best player in the NBA. And he is 21.
This post was edited on 12/19/14 at 8:48 pm
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:54 pm to rondo
quote:
Lol...i call out the guy fabricating positions to make a point and people think I'm a dummy.
In today's game of basketball positions are mostly fabricated anyways. You have big men down low, and ball handlers up top. This isn't football baw.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:55 pm to Solo
Popovich just ran a baseline to baseline play with 6 seconds left in the quarter. And yeah it worked of course. SA will be relevant as long as he's coaching. He's been doing this weird 5 for 5 thing all night where he brings in and out entire lineups after they play 5 minutes. Who the hell does that?
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:07 pm to Solo
quote:
And the Pels have the best player in the NBA. And he is 21.
based on? Hopefully you aren't using PER. PER is a great tool, yes, but it isn't a good predictor of wins like say real plus minus is. Based on real plus minus Davis is 7th. That is probably more accurate than relying on PER only.
Real Plus Minus (RPM). This metric measures how well a team does offensively and defensively with any given on court, and compares it with how well the team does at each with that same player off the court. RPM also uses logistic regression to account for the influence of the other players on the court at the same time.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER), the long time-standard single metric at ESPN created by John Hollinger, instead relies purely on things that can be measured in box scores.
Each stat has pros and cons. RPM measures intangible like setting hard screens, good defensive rotations, and creating offensive spacing with 3-point shooting. It suffers from higher variance when a player gets limited minutes, the de-aliasing of the effect from other players is a mathematical "best guess," and is an indirect measurement.
Conversely, PER is a direct measurement, and measures more tangible things that allow you to identify why an individual player is or isn't helping your bottom line (winning). However it doesn't measure the intangibles mentioned above. Nor are all stats inside the PER created equal:
1. PER is a better predictor of minutes played than RPM
When PER and RPM are converted to standardized and concerted to z-scores (by position played) and then treated as independent variables for predicting minutes per game played, both have significant predictive value. However, of the two, PER has a significantly stronger predictive value. This suggests teams give more weight to box score effects when determining who to play.
2. But RPM is a better predictor of winning percentage
When you examine the effect of the interaction terms of PER * minutes played, and RPM * minutes played, and use them to predict team winning percentage, only the RPM interaction term has any significant predictive value (p < .05). If you didn't follow any of that, though: winning teams tend to play high RPM guys more, and pay less attention to what a player's PER is.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:08 pm to Boomshockalocka
more?
6. Players who put up the numbers, but don't help as much in the final score
When standardized PER and RPM are compared, here are the top guys with the biggest differentials between the two (where PER z-score is greater than RPM z-score).
1. Amare Stoudemire (2.8)
2. John Henson (2.7)
3. Demarcus Cousins (2.3)
4. Kevin Durant (2.3)
5. Anthony Davis (2.0)
7. Players who help you the most on the scoreboard, but not in the box score
Similarly, going the other direction looking at the players with the biggest differential between standardized PER and RPM, where RPM is greater than PER, the top five intangibles players are:
1. Nick Collison (2.8)
2. Patrick Beverly (2.2)
3. Iman Shumpert (1.9)
4. Matt Bonner (1.9)
5. Epke Udoh (1.9)
6. Players who put up the numbers, but don't help as much in the final score
When standardized PER and RPM are compared, here are the top guys with the biggest differentials between the two (where PER z-score is greater than RPM z-score).
1. Amare Stoudemire (2.8)
2. John Henson (2.7)
3. Demarcus Cousins (2.3)
4. Kevin Durant (2.3)
5. Anthony Davis (2.0)
7. Players who help you the most on the scoreboard, but not in the box score
Similarly, going the other direction looking at the players with the biggest differential between standardized PER and RPM, where RPM is greater than PER, the top five intangibles players are:
1. Nick Collison (2.8)
2. Patrick Beverly (2.2)
3. Iman Shumpert (1.9)
4. Matt Bonner (1.9)
5. Epke Udoh (1.9)
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:13 pm to Boomshockalocka
Last three MVPs led the league in PER and win shares. All on playoff teams
Davis leads the league in PER and win shares on a playoff team.
Coincidence? I think not
Davis leads the league in PER and win shares on a playoff team.
Coincidence? I think not
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:17 pm to ManBearTiger
quote:
In today's game of basketball positions are mostly fabricated anyways. You have big men down low, and ball handlers up top. This isn't football baw.
That's fine if you want to simplify basketball to post players and ball handlers. But the OP said point guard. That's an actual position. And that position is played by Patrick Beverley.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:22 pm to GynoSandberg
I'll give you back the 100$ you will owe me for fantasy basketball if the Pels make the playoffs, If they don't you owe me nothing. Yea they are playing a little better than average now, but they have a 10-15% chance at the playoffs.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:23 pm to GynoSandberg
PER was the first advanced stat to become somewhat mainstream so it carries a lot of weight. As people start to learn that it isn't the best metric others that are better will take its place.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:31 pm to Boomshockalocka
Pels have 3 players in the top 21 of your favorite stat boom. Ready to admit that Jrue and Tyreke are better by a good bit than any other Rocket not named Harden now? Or you just going to disappear from the thread like you did after that arse got spanked last night by AD?
This post was edited on 12/19/14 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:38 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
I'm not sure the Mavs got better...
I think we have a higher ceiling than we did before, but I'm also not sure we got better. Brendan Wright had been huge this year and Jae Crowder is a solid rotation guy. There isn't a whole lot of front court depth and Rondo hasn't played like a top 10 point guard this year. He's too selfless and plays really bad defense. I'm hoping that this will change with him playing in meaningful games now.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:47 pm to ShamelessPel
I don't have a favorite stat I m able to look at all of them combined and make damn strong decisions.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:49 pm to ShamelessPel
Jrue? Lol he is barely above average starter at his position. Hell schved has a higher ranking in your beloved PER.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:54 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
1. Nick Collison (2.8)
2. Patrick Beverly (2.2)
3. Iman Shumpert (1.9)
4. Matt Bonner (1.9)
5. Epke Udoh (1.9)
Lol....any stat that has this trash as its top 5 is pretty worthless
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:58 pm to Roger Klarvin
NBA Soutwest = CFB SEC West
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:58 pm to LSUFreek
Actually it's > the SEC West.
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